PGA DFS Golf Picks, Analysis and Advice for the U.S Open, Part 1

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The U.S. Open: The Toughest Course Golfers Will Face in 2015

The United States Open is perhaps the most challenging and difficult course that professional golfers face throughout the year. The greens are trimmed down to their lowest point making them some of the fastest golfers see all year. On the other hand, the rough is unkempt without even the slightest trim. The winning score of the U.S. Open is usually around an even par. However there has been years that players find their stroke and wind up completely torching the course. Last year Martin Kaymer won by eight strokes at nine under, and Tiger Woods destroyed the field in 2000 at Pebble Beach Golf Links winning by a miraculous 15 strokes at 12 under.

The only relatively easy U.S. Open course over the past 15 years was in 2011 at Congressional Country Club where 20 players were under par and Rory McIlroy won by eight strokes at 16 under. In 2012 and 2013 the winning score was one over, and two years before that the winning score was an even par. In 2006 and 2007 Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera won at five over par. If you like a low scoring tournament where golfers hit the ball all over and struggle with every shot then the U.S. Open is a great tournament for you, but if you prefer exquisite golf with birdies and eagles then pass on this one.

 

U.S. Open Chambers Bay Course Preview

The United States Golf Association takes pride in making the U.S. Open the hardest course and this year will be no different. The 115^th U.S. Open begins on Thursday at Chambers Bay in Washington, a first for the U.S. Open, as it has never been played in the Pacific Northwest. The course will be a par 70, and will play at 7,874 yards long. Chambers Bay is a public course and was established in 2007 with a very unique feature, it’s a link style course. A links course has few trees (Chambers Bay has one to be exact on the 15^th hole, but more on that later) on or near a coast, no inland body of waters, and many dunes. Chambers Bay also has a lot of small mounds, hummocks, causing the golfer to play against natural elements such as wind and rain. The U.S. Open has been played five times at another links style course, Pebble Beach Golf Links. On that course the winning scores were even, 12 under (Tiger won by 15 that year), three under, six under, and two over. However, Pebble Beach is unlike Chambers Bay, and as Ernie Els said in an article, “It should play like a proper links course, more so than maybe any other venue that I’ve encountered in my U.S. Open career.” In addition to Els’ statement Morgan Hoffman, featured in Golf Digest said, “Even par would win by a lot.”

The scoring average at the 2010 U.S. Amateurs held at Chambers Bay was a 79.25 on a par 71. Masters Champion, Jordan Spieth, did not even qualify for match play at that tournament. Birdie will be hard to come by at Chambers Bay, as a par would be a win for the golfer.

The hole that stands out at Chambers Bay is hole number 13, known as Eagle Eye. It’s a par 4, 534 yards, and has the widest fairway in the history of the U.S. Open, approximately 115 yards wide. After hitting the fairway, players have a difficult approach to the green due to the many slopes that run away from the green. A par here would be considered a successful hole.

Two holes later at Lone Fir golfers face a par 3 that can range from 123 yards to 246 yards. When golfers stand on the tee box they will see a breathtaking view of the green with Puget Sound directly behind it. This hole is also easily identifiable and unique, as it has the only tree on the course that stands between the sound and the green. Players finish their final two rounds with the par three 17^th and par four/five 18^th, two extremely challenging and competitive holes.

Players will have the options of hitting from several different tee boxes on this particular hole. The hole’s location will make or break this hole; the left side is more birdie friendly, and the right side will lead to bogey city, hence the name, Derailed.

The 18^th, Tahoma, can either be a 525 yard par four or a 604 yard par five in the four rounds played. The par four will require a player to hit the ball around 290 yards towards the left side of the fairway with great accuracy. On both the par four and five players must be wary of the U.S. Open’s deepest bunker when hitting the ball around 120 yards short of the green. If these facts don’t make this hole a challenge for the players, they will have to make long putts on a green that is the most hilly and uneven part of the course.

Let's dig in the the players who might benefit or struggle on a Links course like Chambers Bay. These players should be targeted (or avoided) in your DraftKings DFS Millionaire Maker lineup.

 

High Price DraftKings Picks ($9000 – Max)

Phil Mickelson ($10,200 Vegas 18/1)

Mickelson has come so close to completing the career grand slam, finishing runner up a record six times at the U.S. Open. History is not on his side though; Lefty is turning 45 years old on Tuesday, which is not a good sign when it comes to winning majors. Only five players have won a major at an older age than Mickelson has, and the oldest player to win a U.S. Open was Hale Irwin in 1990 at 45 years and 15 days old. This could be Mickelson’s last and best chance to win the U.S. Open. Chambers Bay should play to Mickelson’s game, “Sometimes you have to miss a green to make par,” said Hoffman in Golf Digest. “The fairways are so good and tight you can play whatever type of shot you want.” Mickelson is looking forward to Chambers Bay as he told the Golf Channel, “I really like it. I think it's wonderful.” In addition, Mickelson will be able to play his famous flop shot on the course to his benefit. Although history is against him, I am picking Mickelson to win, and he will be played in all of my lineups for the U.S. Open.

 

Jason Day ($9,900 Vegas 22-1)

The Aussie has a knack for finishing near the top of the leaderboard in majors, but has yet to claim that first major. Here is a list of all of his close calls in major tournaments: 2010 PGA Championship 10^th place, 2011 Masters 2^nd place, 2013 PGA 8^th place, 2013 U.S. Open 2^nd place, 2013 Masters 3^rd place, and the 2014 U.S. Open, 4^th place. Day won the Farmers Insurance back in February and has made 9 of 11 cuts to date including five top 5’s. If Day can put all of his talents together and make that extra push he can finally win a major. I think Day will be in one of the last three groups for Sunday’s final round, but will not have enough versatility to win his first major.

 

Sergio Garcia ($9,600 Vegas 35-1)

The 35-year-old fiery Spaniard is arguably one of the greatest golfers to not have won a major championship. His best results at majors were: 2005 Masters tied for fourth, 2005 U.S. Open tied for third, 2007 and 2014 British Open finished second and tied for second, and the 1999 and 2008 PGA Championship finishing second and tying for second. This season Garcia tied for second at the 5^th major, the Players, and he has not missed a cut all tour. Something tells me he will be playing desperately for his first major win this time around.

 

Bubba Watson ($9,400 Vegas 30-1) 

Be very wary when picking Watson, as he will be very hit or miss at this tournament. Watson plays a very erratic golf game with all of his crazy draws and fades. Watson has the repertoire of shots not many other golfers have and he can use those to his advantage here. However, he can also blow up and ruin his chances at a championship with those shots. Hoffman’s statement in Golf Digest that, “Sometimes you have to miss a green to make par,” also applies to Watson as well as Mickelson above.

Watson can curve and slice the golf ball like no other player on tour, but will he be consistent enough to compete? Mickelson adjusted his game later on in his career to not be so wild and he has become a more consistent player. That is something Watson must learn sooner or later.

 

Avoid at all Costs

Stay away from Adam Scott ($10,700 Vegas 25-1) here. I don’t think his game will translate well to this course, and he has been playing satisfactory golf throughout big tournaments thus far. He tied for 38^th at both the Masters and Players and his best finish was tied for 4^th at the WGC- Cadillac. Playing anything below excellent golf at Chambers Bay could spell disaster for Scott.

 

Quick Hitters

Dustin Johnson ($11,300 5-1) scares me after pulling out of the FedEx St. Jude Classic with an illness and I wonder if he can control his driving length on this windy course… World number one Rory McIlroy ($13,000 Vegas 5-1) and world number two Jordan Spieth ($12,600 Vegas 8-1) are just too pricey for a difficult tournament like this, and unless they finish in the top three, their prices won’t pay off… Six players have won back-to-back U.S. Open Championships and it has not happened since 1988-89, the odds are not in Martin Kaymer’s ($9,000 45-1) favor for a repeat.

Stay tuned for Tuesday and Wednesday when we analyze the best mid-price and low range picks for the U.S. Open.

 

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