RADIO
It’s now less than 30 days from the NBA trade deadline (Feb. 18th, 3pm) and likely even closer to your fantasy trade deadline. A lot can change both in the NBA and on your fantasy team overnight, and even relatively small moves in the NBA can launch guys into fantasy relevance (for example, Isaiah Thomas and Reggie Jackson last season). However, a trade can also destroy a players value just as easily - we call that a Rondo.
In this series I’ll look to highlight some of the players I think will be impacted the most from potential trades. In addition, I’ll touch on some guys whose minutes, and fantasy value, could increase or decrease substantially as the season progresses due to a variety of other factors. This usually includes younger guys on bad teams who are out of playoff contention. Even though we’re just over half way done with the fantasy season, it’s never too early to look ahead and grab guys who will have guaranteed minutes during the crucial rounds of the playoffs.
I’ll take a look at some interesting guys around the league to buy low, sell high, or wait a week or two until trade rumors get more serious.
NBA Trade Deadline: Players to Buy Low, Part 1
Devin Booker (SG, PHO)
Devin Booker is my favorite low end target heading into the trade deadline. Classic, young player on a bad team that’s already out of playoff contention. He’s only owned in 38% of leagues, so go double check he’s not on your waiver wire right now. His minutes and usage are skyrocketing following the injury to Eric Bledsoe, and with Suns nearly out of playoff contention already, Booker should have the green light for the rest of the season.
Through the last month, Booker has averaged a respectable 14.7 points, 1.2 3PM, 2.9 rebounds and 1.5 assists a game. That’s very comparable to players like Arron Afflalo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (without the steals). Now if we look at an even smaller sample size of the last two weeks, he’s bumped those averages up to 17.3 points, 1.8 3PM, 3.8 rebounds, and is now even averaging 4.2 FTA a game at 84%. Although that doesn’t look like drastic improvement, he increased his scoring by 17%, 3PM by 50%, and rebounds 31%. Now I’m not saying his numbers will increase at this rate for the rest of the season, but it clearly shows that not only is there room for growth, but also that he’s a player who looks to be learning from his mistakes relatively quickly.
While I’m sure there will be stretches of games Booker goes cold, you won’t ever have to worry about his playing time decreasing- the Suns simply don’t have any other options. As of right now, the only other guards on the roster are Brandon Knight, Archie Goodwin, Sonny Weems, and Lorenzo Brown (on a 10 day contract). Clearly there’s a huge drop off after Knight, and it’s obvious the Suns will look to develop the chemistry between Booker and their current franchise player.
Overall, if you have a good team, bad team, or somewhere in between, I would look to swoop in and steal Booker before he’s averaging 20 points and two 3PM a game; because that’s where I think he’s headed.
Side note: Although I don’t think the end result of the Markieff Morris Saga has much effect on Booker’s production, it can only help his value if he leaves. Aside from the extra shot attempts, I’m sure the team chemistry will increase when they have less distractions.
Markieff Morris (PF/C, PHO)
Speaking of Morris, I honestly have no clue where he’s gonna end up. All I know is anything is better than Phoenix. Markieff is a flat out skilled basketball player, and easily a top- 50 fantasy player when happy and given the opportunity to play in a good situation. Last year Markieff finished with an overall Player Rater score (ESPN rating that ranks overall fantasy value based on production in each category) of 7.48. If we took that score for his FULL SEASON and plopped it on the player rater list for this season thus far, he’d sit right at number 41. That’s above, Kevin Love, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard, and only two spots behind DeMarcus Cousins (I’m sure that will change).
If the player rater scores aren’t your thing, how does 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and almost one three pointer made a game sound? With solid percentages? That’s what Markieff averaged last season, and honestly I think that’s his floor where ever he ends up.
In addition, Markieff is someone who definitely plays with a lot of emotion, and I think he’ll be playing with a serious chip on his shoulder for his next team to show the Sun’s what they’re missing out on. A hustling Markieff Morris you say? Sign me up.
I would look to trade for him sooner rather than later. The more serious the trade rumors, the higher his stock rises, and the harder it will be to pry him from another roster. Obviously there is always the risk that he stays in Phoenix, but assuming he gets traded, you could grab potential Round 4 value on the cheap mid-way through the season.
Brandon Jennings (PG, DET)
Another pretty big name that has been tossed around in a few trade rumors is Brandon Jennings. Yes he is coming back from a terrible injury, but he’s been playing on restricted minutes and has looked pretty good so far this season.
Now, there aren’t many teams in the market for a point guard coming back from injury, but there is one team that I’ve had my eye on as a possible Brandon Jennings trade destination that is not only feasible, but extremely fantasy friendly. That destination is New York City. The Knicks are one of the few teams in the NBA with a gaping hole at point guard, and are definitely a team that would be willing to take a chance on a player like Jennings.
With Jennings in New York, or as a starting point guard on any NBA team, you’re looking at around 15 points, six assists, two 3PM, and at least a steal every single night. He’s one of the few players who has the potential to not only score over 50 points (55; 11/14/09 ) , but also record over 20 assists (21; 1/21/15) in a single game. He has a high floor if he can stay healthy and a monstrously high ceiling, and that’s exactly what you want to roll the dice on if you’re aiming for a player whose value hinges on being traded.
As of right now, Jennings is only owned in 25% of leagues on Yahoo. So if your team is really good and you have spot on your roster to spare, or if your team is really bad and you need a potential home run pickup, Brandon Jennings is your guy. If your team is somewhere in the middle, and you really count on every roster spot for production, maybe hold off on picking him up/trading for him until there’s some more substance to his potential departure.
