RADIO
RotoBaller is starting up a new series taking a close look at selected universally-owned star players. NBA writer Nate Derosena will take a fresh look at players that have fantasy basketball owners wondering -- what's up? Where's the big jump in stats you were expecting? Where were the big numbers he was producing in the past? Or alternately, can his current production be sustained? Starting off the series is a young player who was drafted extremely high in most fantasy leagues in anticipation of a leap in production that hasn't yet happened.
NBA Player Analysis: What's Up With Andrew Wiggins?
Andrew Wiggins, the second year guard out of Kansas, has been continuing to find himself and develop his game as the season has progressed. Though his free throw and three point shooting percentages are both down from his rookie year (from .760 and .310 down to .740 and .248, respectively), Wiggins is amping up the volume of his scoring. Wiggins recently had a team high 31 points in a win against the Los Angeles Clippers, ending the NBA’s current active streak for most consecutive wins for a team against a single franchise. He is clearly a cornerstone of the young Timberwolves franchise, and when he is on top of his game, the Wolves are capable of beating very good teams.
Even Kobe Bryant had praise for Wiggins after their recent matchup. “He’s improved a lot from the first time I played him,” Bryant said in a postgame interview. “He hid the ball very well, he spaced very well, you know it’s textbook and it’s a pleasure for me to see that.”
Wiggins’ three point shooting percentage has seen improvement over a recent small sample, with him shooting .400 in February, well above his season average. Hopefully this means the extended cold streak of the past two months where he shot .194 from three in December and January is over. With his skillset, there's no reason why he shouldn't be able to hit a respectable amount of his threes. The rest of the young, talented Timberwolves roster is also growing as the season moves along, which will only make things easier for Wiggins.
While the veteran presences of Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince help keep the young guard on the right path, it has helped Wiggins in actual recent game play that the Wolves have been giving more minutes around Wiggins to younger, more dynamic players who draw more defensive attention away from Wiggins, like Gorgui Dieng and Zach LaVine, who have both been on fire in recent weeks.
Aside from the shooting, Wiggins is also posting numbers that are down from last year in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. This could be coming from many factors, but most prominently in the form of teammates this season who are better at getting those type of stats. A healthier Ricky Rubio means less reliance on the roster as a whole for assists. The addition of number one overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns under the rim means less rebounds and blocks to go around.
Switching Wiggins from playing a lot of small forward to almost exclusively playing shooting guard for much of the first half of the year could also be a factor. As a shooting guard, he has been taking more aggressive shots, affecting his efficiency. Wiggins played and started in all 82 games last season for Minnesota, attempting 126 three point shots in his rookie year. 52 games into the 2015-16 season, he has already attempted 125 three point shots, making eight less than he did last season (39 last season compared to 31 this season). He has also attempted 384 field goals so far this season, compared to 497 field goals all of last season.
The spacing around Wiggins when he plays the 2 could also affect his efficiency -- playing Wiggins alongside Tayshaun Prince or Shabazz Muhammad on the wing clogs up the lanes and allows more help defense on Wiggins than playing him alongside a rangier SG like Zach LaVine or the injured Kevin Martin. Perhaps it is no coincidence that the recent uptick in three point percentage for Wiggins has come at the same time as an increase in playing time for Zach LaVine on the wing alongside him.
Wiggins is still very young, so he has plenty of time to develop his game. Though not one of the Timberwolves main ball handlers, he is on the rise to becoming one of the team’s main options on offense. Once Wiggins finds a rhythm, he cannot be stopped. He is also improving on his aggressiveness when attacking the basket. Though he has gone through somewhat of a minor sophomore slump, he isn't likely to be nearly as bad from long range going forward. As he gains confidence in his shot and comfort with his scoring game, some of the other fantasy stats could start coming along with it -- perhaps he'll spend more time working on his defensive game and we'll see an increase in steals, for example.
Wiggins has the talent to be one of the NBA’s elite down the road. This season has surely been frustrating for fantasy owners who over-drafted him expecting him to take the leap. It is best to remain patient, though. He still only 20 years old (his 21st birthday is February 23). Don't expect him to turn into Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard overnight. He remains a top-tier dynasty value. As for seasonal leagues, don't expect early round value from him, but he might be a buy low at this point if his owner has become too disillusioned with his poor shooting in December and January.
