RADIO
Overall this is a pretty tough night, even for the normally thin three game slate on Thursdays, but there are plenty of opportunities to find a few diamonds in the rough. Try to focus on players who are either often overlooked, or might be under owned, that will be the difference between winning big and breaking even tonight.
Good luck and feel free to hit me up on twitter @udontknowziplow with any DFS questions
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FanDuel Point Guard Picks
Mo Williams (CLE, PG) -$6,200
Mo Williams has quietly flown under the DFS radar, but he should be a great value tonight against the Bucks. In Kyrie Irving’s absence Williams has averaged 26.9 fantasy points a game, which is just about 5x value at his current price.
Mo Williams can do a bit of everything from a fantasy perspective; scores points, dishes out serious assists, and grabs enough rebounds to make a noticeable difference in his fantasy totals. Playing devil’s advocate, Williams did just play the Bucks and only record 13 fantasy points, but if you take a closer look, it was really just a cold night shooting. He still grabbed five rebounds and dished out four assists. If he found his range a little earlier in the game he would have been right on par with his season averages.
On top of being very consistent this season, Williams has a very high fantasy ceiling. He has scored over 30 fantasy points three times already this season, and even tallied 44.2 fantasy points against Utah on 11/10.
On short slates this is the type of player you should target; cheap, high ceiling and under owned. We can hope that the rest of the DFS world passes on Williams for other options tonight, because I could easily see Mo Williams out scoring all point guards not named Stephen Curry.
Also Consider: Goran Dragic (MIA, PG)
FanDuel Shooting Guard Picks
Jamal Crawford (LAC, SG) - $4,400
This should be the first player you slot into your lineup tonight. His ownership is going to be through the roof, but this matchup, and the Clippers injury situation is too good to pass on.
As of right now Doc Rivers has said that both Chris Paul and J.J Redick are “not probable” for tonight’s game (also known as questionable, or most likely doubtful) which means that the Clippers are left with Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, Lance Stephenson, and Pablo Prigioni as the remaining healthy backcourt players. One of those names should stick out to you as an actual talented basketball player – and that’s Jamal Crawford (Sorry Lance).
Last game with J.J Redick out, Jamal played 41 minutes against the Pistons and scored 37 real points, to go along with six rebounds, eight assists, and even chipped in a block for a grand total of 55.2 fantasy points. Now that’s what I call a high ceiling. I’m not saying Jamal can duplicate that tonight, but honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised. We all know this game is going to be high scoring with lots of pace, and if Paul and Reddick do sit, the Clippers will need Crawford and Griffin to shoulder pretty much the entire offensive load.
This is a no brainer pick, just make sure to keep an eye on injury statuses.
Also consider: J.R. Smith (CLE, SG)
FanDuel Small Forward Picks
Rudy Gay (SAC, SF) - $7,600
Small Forward is super thin tonight, so I’m going to pay up for a known commodity. What I mean by that is we know exactly what we’re going to get with Rudy Gay tonight. Lots of scoring, a handful of rebounds, and if we’re lucky a few assists and steals.
Gay might not reach 5x value like we usually hope for, but sometimes you just need to pay for fantasy points and that’s exactly what you should do tonight. Guys like Luol Deng, Harrison Barnes, and even Khris Middleton have pretty low floors, and are too risky to justify saving money on them.
Matchup wise, no one on the Heat is a good enough perimeter defender to really guard Gay, so if he can get his touches (aka if DeMarcus shares the rock) he should put up solid numbers.
If you’re not sold on Gay, fill in the rest of your roster, see how much money you have left and go from there. None of the SF tonight are worth making a priority, including Gay, so just save it for last and pick the best matchups you can afford.
Also consider: Andre Iguodala (GSW, SF)
FanDuel Power Forward Picks
Blake Griffin (LAC, PF) - $9,700
I try not to include the elite guys in these articles, but with only 3 games it’s crucial to pick the right stars. Blake Griffin is the star I will be shaping my roster around. Like I mentioned earlier, with J.J. Redick and Chris Paul both doubtful for tonight, Griffin will have to take on a much larger role on offense if the Clippers want to compete with the Warriors.
I know it’s super bold to predict triple-doubles, but Grffin almost had one the other night, and if in fact the Clippers are shorthanded, his usage rate is going to be sky high, and a triple-double might be inevitable. Griffin has the talent to run an offense through him, and I think that’s exactly what Doc Rivers will do. This should mean super high assist totals for Blake in addition to his usual dominance in points and rebounds.
For those of you worried about Draymond Green, you need to watch more basketball. Draymond Green is a great defender, but he usually dominates other big men with his unique combination of size and speed. Unfortunately for Draymond, Blake is bigger and faster and just better at basketball. Like Mark Jackson says, good defense always loses to better offense, and tonight is going to be one of those nights.
Also consider: Kevin Love (CLE, PF)
FanDuel Center Picks
Greg Monroe (MIL, C) - $7,800
It’s taking every bit of self-control to not pick Hassan Whiteside tonight, but I have to keep it real with my readers and go with the better value. You’ll save $800, and most likely Monroe will be far less owned than Whiteside, which I have mentioned is an absolutely crucial factor on short slates like tonight.
Just a few nights ago Monroe posted 16 PTS, 17 REB, three AST, and a block for 40.9 total fantasy points against these very same Cavaliers. That easily reaches value at his current price, and could definitely see close to the same tonight.
Coming off his poorest game of the season, Monroe might be even more overlooked, but that shouldn’t deter you. This guy can flat out put up numbers, and depending on what kind of lineups Cleveland throws out there tonight Monroe could have great matchups. Basically, if Cleveland plays more Mozgov/ Thompson lineups Monroe will feast. I know this seems counter intuitive, but the smaller Cleveland goes (i.e Love at Center and Lebron at PF) the further Monroe is from the basket on defense (forced to guard Love), limiting his ability to collect rebounds and block shots.
Although I think most likely Whiteside and Monroe will end up with similar fantasy totals, Monroe will be much less owned, giving you an opportunity to take advantage if Monroe goes off, or if Whiteside struggles to contain Demarcus Cousins.
Side Note: Hassan Whiteside does have issues committing fouls, and DeMarcus Cousins is the most talented post player in the NBA. This is not a good combination, and I would be a little worried of Whiteside picking up early fouls and limiting his minutes. But he did just have 10 blocks the other night, so go with your gut.
Also Consider: Hassan Whiteside (MIA, C)
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