Forty man rosters are officially here but we have yet to experience any drastic pricing based on these additions. Wednesday offers only four games in the afternoon slate, so today we will focus on the evening games. Below are my DraftKings picks for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2015.  As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock.

My goal with these DFS picks, as always, is to try and identify MLB players who will outperform their expectations today, based on their matchups and FanDuel prices. These players can be high-cost players, or they can be value pick sleepers, but we are always looking for players that have a chance to return the greatest value for your DFS lineups. Let’s get to it.

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MLB & DraftKings DFS Game Notes

• Another day with beautiful baseball conditions. The only game that may feature any type of delay will take place in Baltimore. As of this writing, there is a 15% chance of rain at the time of first pitch. Most likely, every game starts without a hitch.
• Aside from the demi-God toeing the rubber tonight, there are a plethora of big arms starting tonight. It is pretty safe to say that one guy in particular (hint: his name rhymes with Hat Marvey) will be heavily owned in a lot of leagues. It may be a good day to go contrarian.
• If it is stacks you like, then we’ve got some stacks you’ll want. You will want to get a piece of the Twins right-handed bats. They square off against Carlos Rodon at home and Minnesota owns a wRC+ of 105 at Target Field. They may strike out a few times, but there will almost assuredly be some bombs hit off the young southpaw.
• Of course, we have to mention this evening game in Colorado as a stacking option. Arizona throws Chase Anderson and Colorado is matching Jon Gray in the thin air. The positional players will be absurdly priced, but if you can afford some of the lower-end options then you will be sitting pretty.
• The left-killing mini-stack on the Brewers is a good pick against Pirates starter Jeff Locke. Locke has looked shaky on the road and for whatever reason, the Brewers seem to be at their best when facing the Pirates.
• How about the Phillies for a contrarian stack? They will go against Matt Harvey who figures to be heavily owned and most if not all of their players will be cheap. But the young Phillie bats have had some success against Harvey this season. They have scored six runs in 12 innings against him on the season and if Harvey is on a pitch count or innings limit, then that leaves the door open for the hitters to exploit the Mets bullpen. If you can afford a cheap GPP play, then stack Phillies.
• Giants starter Mike Leake is a guy that typically pitches to contact and he should succeed in AT&T Park’s large dimensions. He figures to have some solid performances but for tonight a lot of the Dodgers are cheap as compared to their value. Try to fit in a few of the lower end Dodgers.

 

DFS Pitchers to Consider for DraftKings

Clayton Kershaw, LAD - $14,600

His K rate is blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. He’s an expensive pitching demi-God. Let’s leave it at that.

Matt Harvey, NYM - $11,900

Harvey is seemingly a solid pick today. His overall numbers are good, but he is even better at home. His home numbers pan out to a24.0% K rate, 3.8% BB rate, and 0.94 WHIP. The one risky component of his game is his high strand rate (86.1%) at Citi Field. Harvey has given up six earned runs in 13 innings against the Phillies this season while striking out 12. With the possibility of a short leash on the pitch count, a high risk/high reward matchup against the Phillies and seemingly everyone owning some stock in Harvey tonight, perhaps it is wise to look elsewhere.

Cole Hamels, TEX - $10,800

It still feels weird to see the “TEX” and not “PHI” associated with Hamels. With the Rangers, Hamels has been touched up a bit but several factors could be guilty of his initial struggles. He has looked better as he has gotten more comfortable in his new uniform. In the “funny yet true stat” department, Hamels allowed one fewer earned run that his previous start since coming to Texas. In five consecutive starts, he has given up five, four, three, two and one earned run, respectively. That means he has to pitch a shutout Wednesday night. Even if he doesn’t, he has a solid matchup against a Padres team that yields the fourth-highest K rate against lefties in a great pitcher’s park. Hamels makes for the top value pitcher of the day.

Michael Wacha, STL - $10,100

Among the top-tier options stands Wacha. He will face a Nationals team that has been striking out a lot against right-handed pitching while (most likely) getting help from his teammates. The Cardinals are ridiculous at home and should get the win like they’ve done all years.

Erasmo Ramirez, TB - $5,500

I have been riding every starting pitcher that has gone against the Orioles over the five days and the dividends have really paid off. Ramirez is certainly no Hamels or Kershaw, but he is a great second pitcher option in most tournaments and GPPs. Ramirez doesn’t possess particularly strong numbers on the year, but he is getting slightly unluckier on the road than at home. His strand rate is at a low 63.1%, so you have to figure that will even out, and his 3.99 road FIP is better than his home. Besides, the O’s own a mere wRC+ of 63 over the last week while striking out in 31.3% of at bats. Ride that train.

 

DFS Catchers to Consider for DraftKings

Jonathan Lucroy, MIL - $4,000

The catcher position is one of those nights that looks really weak. Lucroy is really only the true viable option. He has really come on strong over the last ten days and he owns solid career numbers against Locke.

John Jaso, TB - $2,700

For those of you that are familiar with my picks, you will now that I love Jaso. His numbers have been a little underwhelming this season and that is precisely the reason why he is a great pick. He owns a career road slash line of .296/.383/.458 against right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 140. He makes for a great punt option at the catcher position.

 

DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings

FIRST BASE

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - $6,300

Good luck fitting him into your lineups.

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD - $3,600

Prince Fielder, TEX - $3,600

I absolutely love veterans who have homerun power that are undervalued in price with the platoon advantage. The nod here goes a little to Fielder as he owns the better career numbers in his matchup. Still, both of these guys are low risk/high reward players that are seemingly can’t miss plays.

SECOND BASE

Brian Dozier, MIN - $5,000

For Wednesday night’s plays at second base, it’s Dozier and then everybody else. He owns a .404 wOBA and 160 wRC+ against LHPs at home this season, including a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It just feels like one of those nights where you need to pay up for him.

Kolten Wong, STL - $3,200

Like Dozier, Wong is at his best when facing opposite handed pitchers at home. His .344 wOBA and 120 wRC+ against righties at home will surely place him at the top of the lineup in Wednesday night’s game against Max Scherzer. Scherzer has looked rather pedestrian over the last month and is getting tagged by the long ball. Of course it is Scherzer, so Wong makes for a better tournament play.

Gordon Beckham, CWS - $2,000

I really do not expect Beckham to get the start in Minnesota. If by some miracle he does, you should give him a nice, long look and think about punting him at the second base position in tournaments. He has solid BvP numbers against Tommy Milone and will start in a game that will feature some run scoring.

SHORTSTOP

Eduardo Escobar, MIN - $3,700

Escobar has been red hot over the last couple weeks and there is no reason to think it cannot continue. He is a better career hitter as a right handed bat and there should be plenty of opportunities for some RBIs with guys like Dozier getting on base ahead of him.

Jean Segura, MIL - $3,500

Because the Pirates are throwing out a lefty in Locke, Segura figures to be hitting high in the lineup. He has been sporadic at best this season, but is still a solid career hitter against left-handed pitching. He figures to get plenty of at-bats and opportunities Wednesday night.

THIRD BASE

Nolan Arenado, COL - $4,900

Wait a minute. There’s a guy batting third in a lineup with 32 HR and 98 RBI for game that features an over/under of 11 runs, and he is under $5k?! AND it’s Nolan Arenado, who is at his best when facing righties at home!? What’s the catch?! Why even think about another third baseman?

Trevor Plouffe, MIN - $3,900

Let me be clear. With his price, you should construct your lineup around Arenado. If for some reason you really like another guy, then a cheaper and higher boom-or-bust option is Plouffe. You should still build around Arenado.

 

DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings

Lorenzo Cain, KC - $5,000

Kansas City’s favorite lefty-masher figures to have a huge night against Randy Wolf.

Ryan Braun, MIL - $4,800

Why does it seem like the Brewers only show up to play against the Pirates? It’s quite odd. What isn’t odd is the numbers that Braun has put up over his career against Locke. He owns a .308 AVG in 26 career at bats including a home run.

Ender Inciarte, ARI - $4,700

With the prices going on at Coors Field, you will need to find cheaper end value. Inciarte is the kind of hitter that figures to be a strong value pick considering his price. He is a career line drive hitter that does not strike out a lot (11.1% career K rate). That’s the type of hitter that drops doubles and triples all day in Denver.

Yoenis Cespedes, NYM - $4,700

The dude has been absolutely bonkers since coming over to the Mets. Keep riding the hot streak while you can.

Michael Conforto, NYM - $3,900

As far as Mets outfielders are concerned, I like Conforto more than Cespedes. He has had an amazing contact rate and is coming through with a wRC+ of 226 over the last two weeks. He has been batting higher in the Mets lineup and there is no reason to think that will not continue as he owns the platoon advantage against Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

Aaron Altherr, PHI - $2,400

Over the last ten games, Altherr has averaged 8.4 DraftKings points per game. Though he is striking out a lot, he does own a wOBA of .352 over the last two weeks. He is a great tournament boom-or-bust option and a must roster if you utilize the contrarian Phillies stack option.

 

DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6 PM on 9/2

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