RADIO
Below are my DraftKings picks for Thursday, October 8th, 2015.
As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock. My goal with these DFS picks, as always, is to try and identify MLB players who will outperform their expectations today and tomorrow, based on their matchups and FanDuel prices.
These players can be high-cost players, or they can be value pick sleepers, but we are always looking for players that have a chance to return the greatest value for your DFS lineups. Let’s get to it.
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MLB & DraftKings DFS Game Notes
- The most important thing to know about the postseason is that anything is possible. Literally anything. Throw all the numbers out the door and throw a dart at names. Sort of. This mostly means that filling up the allotted budget is not always a smart choice.
- Slight weather problems for tonight’s AL slate. One game is in a dome. It’s safe to say that the game should go off without a hitch. The Astros-Royals matchup is a different story. As of this writing, there is a 24% chance of rain at game time in Kansas City. More than likely the game will go off, but it is something to keep an eye on.
- I would not utilize a stacking strategy for a two-game slate. But…..
- ….I feel bad for Collin McHugh. He owns a pedestrian 19.9% K rate and will be facing a Royals squad that struck out in a league low of 16.3% plate appearances. The Royals make contact at an historic rate. Of all batted balls in play, 80.1% went for medium-to-hard contact. Sorry Collin, old chap. But you have a tough assignment ahead.
- Another pitcher to stack against is Yovani Gallardo. He hasn’t completed six innings since August 22. During that seven start span, he has given up 16 earned runs in 35 innings with 24 strikeouts. Fourteen hitters earned easy walks and 46 batters earned their bags with base hits. If only the Toronto hitters weren’t so darn expensive.
DFS Pitchers to Consider for DraftKings
David Price, TOR - $11,700
The AL Cy Young conversation revolves mainly around Houston’s stud Dallas Keuchel. But Price needs to be strongly considered. The dude had arguably his greatest seasons as a professional. Especially when you factor in that six of his starts for the Blue Jays came in run-happy Rogers Centre. As far as DFS purposes go, he is clearly the best option of the day. Is there really a reason needed to hype him for your 50/50 games tonight?
Yordano Ventura, KC - $8,600
I don’t even like this pick. Asking a person to pick between Ventura, McHugh and Gallardo is like asking a person to select which sense they want to give up- sight, hearing or speaking. McHugh and Gallardo will not be touched for the above-mentioned reasons which leaves Ventura. The saving grace is that Ventura has looked a lot better in the second half of the season. His K rate went up almost a full five and a half points, from 19.4% in the first half to 24.9% in the second. His strand rate stabilized and his FIP dropped nearly 0.70 points. Ventura is the safe second pitcher option.
DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings
CATCHERS
Salvador Perez, KC - $3,400
Kansas City’s catcher has had a bit of a down year, so that’s why I am selecting him to have a monster postseason. He was better against righties this year than lefties and will be hitting in a nice spot in the order to drive in some runs.
Jason Castro, HOU - $2,400
Call this one a hunch. Castro has been awful this season and he may not even be in the lineup at all. Even if he is in the lineup, he will be hitting at or near the bottom. He has had some success against Ventura in his career, though. This is my punt play for salary relief.
FIRST BASE
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR - $5,200
Here’s the big dog. The slamalama. The swatting Jay. E3 is primed to have a huge series. Bro dropped five bombs over the last two weeks, plated eight runs and scored 10 times. It’s not a question of when he will go off. It’s a question of budgeting.
Eric Hosmer, KC - $4,600
Quietly, Hosmer has put up a productive year, finishing with 18 HR and 93 RBI. He was also a monster last season in the playoffs. Although I don’t put a whole lot of stock into postseason experience, for whatever reason I like him to be one of those guys that always shows up in October.
SECOND BASE
Ryan Goins, TOR - $2,600
Another punt play here. There is some upside for Goins. He has averaged 6.3 DraftKings points per game over his last ten, which isn’t a terribly high number but it does help for playoffs GPPs. He also is clearly having a better second half than first half. In a similar number of plate appearances (190 in the first, 186 in the second), Goins got on base at a higher clip, owned a higher wRC+, slugged more homeruns and put the ball in play at a much higher rate.
SHORTSTOP
Elvis Andrus, TEX - $3,200
Andrus finished strong in the regular season. He also owns great career numbers in 25 at-bats against Price. And he gets the run-happy Rogers Centre.
THIRD BASE
Luis Valbuena, HOU - $3,100
Every lineup needs to have a guy that has a high ceiling and low floor. It just so happens Valbuena’s ceiling is about 20 feet high and his floor is Death Valley. He has been hot at the end of the season and has that nice power upside.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings
Lorenzo Cain, KC - $4,900
Some players are made for the regular season. Some are built for the postseason. Cain is both. His rare power-speed talent combination is so silly good that I am running out of adjectives to describe him.
George Springer, HOU - $4,500
Houston’s version of Cain finished the season as Houston’s hottest hitter. Though Springer is a good play, I like Cain more as an outfielder to build around. If Cain is too much, go with Springer.
Kevin Pillar, TOR - $4,100
Left-handed pitcher. Right-handed pitcher. It didn't matter at the end of the year when facing Pillar in the Rogers Centre. He was an absolute menace to opposing pitchers and it seemed like everything he hit went for a double.
Ben Revere, TOR - $3,900
Other than E3, Revere is the Blue Jay I like the most for Thursday. He is an on-base machine against right-handed pitchers and is a huge threat to swipe a bag or two. For the Rangers’ sake, hopefully they are on their toes defensively any time Revere is involved.
Alex Gordon, KC - $3,700
You’re giving me a guy with Gordon’s skill at that price? Ok.
