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Oft-suspended wide receiver Josh Gordon was reinstated on Monday by the NFL. Now Gordon just needs to serve out a four game suspension and keep clean for the next 10 weeks before he can suit up for the Browns in week 5. He will be allowed to use team facilities during the suspension.
This is a nice change from previous suspensions. After serving an 11 week suspension in 2014, Gordon looked very out of sync with the offense. Even with a large number of targets he was ineffective and underwhelming.
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Josh Gordon's 2016 Outlook
Josh Gordon’s value is going to be one of the most discussed topics in fantasy football leading up to the draft. History shows that drafters are either going to love him or hate him. Currently all signs point to Gordon’s preseason rank settling in between WR40 to WR45. So anyone that would like to grab him would have to invest an 8th round pick in a 12 team draft. Possibly even higher given the affection he receives from some corners of the fantasy football world.
WR40 would put him squarely in a group of other WRs that are all rookies and breakout candidates. The list includes players like Laquan Treadwell, Stefon Diggs, Sterling Shephard, Corey Coleman, and Willie Snead. So there are a couple things we need to know. What is Gordon’s ceiling? How likely is he to reach that ceiling compared to these other WRs? And how much does his suspension affect all of this. Let’s start with Gordon’s career and try and determine exactly what kind of player he can be.
2012 – Rookie Year
ADP: 287
Finished the Season: WR 38 – 6.8 points per game
16 Games Played
Josh Gordon had a pretty solid rookie year. Coming out of the supplemental draft, he wasn’t on many people’s radars.
2013
ADP: 88
Finished the Season – WR2(Over 17 Weeks) – 16.2 points per game
14 Games Played
This is when the magic happened. With a two game suspension and questionable QB play from Brandon Weedon, no one was expecting much. But Josh Gordon went on a tear while looking like the best WR in football. This included a Week 11 to Week 16 stretch where he averaged 21.6 points per game. Winning many owners their leagues in the process. There is likely at least one of those owners in your league who is drooling at the prospect of Josh Gordon right now.
2014
ADP: All over the place
Finished the Season – WR104 – 6.1 points per game
5 Games Played
Gordon was initially suspended for the entire year. But his draft stock went all over the place as his situation played out in various rulings and appeals. Eventually the NFL changed their substance abuse policy and suspended Gordon for 11 weeks. His return was a disappointment. Many fantasy owners had stashed him on their roster all year hoping to have the best receiver in fantasy football for the playoff run. Instead he was out of sync with his QB. No matter how much they forced the ball to him, Gordon simply couldn’t convert. If you want to know what Josh Gordon’s floor looks like, this is it.
2015
Suspended for the whole year
2016 Fantasy Football Value
At first glance, his upside really does seem higher than just about anyone. This was someone who looked and produced like an elite receiver once upon a time in 2013. But in all reality, much of it was only for 6 weeks. Over the course of the first 7 weeks in which he played, he averaged only 9.4 points per game. Prorated for a whole season, this would have put him at around the 16th highest performing WR of 2013. That kind of production is more line with the rest of his career.
I can’t deny that he showed real talent in his breakout season. But I have to wonder how the time away from football has affected him. He has been away for over a year. But even before 2015 he was in and out. He has not been in the rhythms of a prolonged football season in a long time. His hiatus from football is nearing two years. That’s longer than Ricky Williams’ hiatus in the mid 2000’s. Williams never returned to the form he showed in his first stint with the Dolphins. An optimist would point out that Williams was older, had more mileage, and played a more demanding position. But the example demonstrates that time away from football negatively impacts on field performance for skill position players.
Overall I would put his ceiling as a middle of the pack #2 WR. The limited sample size of excellence and the extended hiatus make it hard for me to envision a scenario where he returns to being a #1 WR. But his chances of actually reaching that level are significantly lower than more proven players like Michael Crabtree, Allen Hurns, and possibly even Vincent Jackson.
I also like the second year WRs a bit more than Gordon. WRs frequently break out in their second seasons. Stefon Diggs, Dorial Green Beckham, and Davante Parker all showed enough last year to be taken seriously. I think their ceilings are higher. And when you are drafting your fourth WR, high ceilings are what you want.
Compared to the rookies going in his range, I actually prefer Gordon’s chances of hitting his ceiling. We have been spoiled in recent years with Odell Beckham and Amari Cooper. Rookie WRs rarely produce in their first season. And they certainly almost never produce like a #1 WR as Beckham did.
Where To Draft Josh Gordon
But there is one thing separating those rookies from Gordon. Gordon has a four game suspension and they do not. If it wasn’t for the suspension I would be higher on Gordon. But losing a roster spot by stashing a player like Gordon is a deadly strategy for a fantasy owner because the value of a roster spot is so vital in the opening weeks of the season. Gordon would be taking the spot of early season waiver wire prospects. And the additional depth at WR you will need to carry those first four weeks also makes it even harder to play the waiver wire.
There will be a lot of talent on the waiver wire those first few weeks. Much of that talent will display higher potential than Gordon. I would rather have the waiver wire steal. If Gordon was a Leveon Bell or Tom Brady, someone who you knew for a fact was going to be on your roster week in and week out after their suspension, it would be one thing. But it simply isn’t worth losing out on some of those opportunities for a question mark as big as Gordon.
So all in all I would rather take some of those riskier rookies. There’s a good chance you will know where you stand with them after a couple weeks. Personally I would put Gordon at around WR 53, just above players like Michael Thomas and Kendall Wright. This puts him squarely in the later rounds of the draft. Let another owner draft him and deal with the stashing headache.
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