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Jonathan Stewart is the ultimate candidate for “what might have been” discussions. Since entering the league in 2008, Stewart has not started more than eight games in a season, thanks in large part to the presence of DeAngelo Williams. The two have cannibalized each other’s value for years, but with Williams now backing up Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh, it’s Stewart’s time to shine.
Stewart was always the more talented of the two, but he’s missed so many games due to injury we have never really seen his true potential. 2009 was his best season by far, in which he piled up 1,133 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns while only starting three games (although he played in all 16). Since then he has missed a third of all the Panthers’ games (27 out of 80), limiting his fantasy value every year.
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His career ratios give some insight into how good he truly can be when healthy though—he has a career yards per carry average of 4.6, which is outstanding even in a smaller sample size. We finally got a full look at him in the last five weeks of the season in 2014, where he tallied 486 rushing yards (although he only had two total touchdowns in that time). That’s 97 yards per game, and with DeAngelo Williams gone he could certainly approach that number over the course of a full season.
While I don’t expect him to maintain that ratio (that would be a 1,500-yard season if you project it out over 16 games), I think he is definitely capable of 1,200 yards. The Panthers will feature him if he’s healthy, but that is the million-dollar question—can he stay healthy? I think 16 games is too much to bank on from someone with his injury history, but he should be able to start in at least 13 games, and if he does he should be able to achieve a 1,000 yard/six touchdown season in 2015.
So where should you target him in drafts? I don’t think he’ll have enough receptions to give him any extra value in PPR formats, but I expect him to haul in at least 30 passes. He’s currently going 47th overall in ESPN leagues, and is currently the RB18. This puts him right around the fourth or fifth round, and if he stays healthy this could be an absolute steal. His injury history will make many fantasy owners wary, but if you can get him in the fourth round or later he’s absolutely worth snatching up. He should be locked in as an RB2, and could achieve low-end RB1 status if he plays in at least 14 games. I don’t think he has any dynasty value, but in keeper leagues where you sacrifice last year’s draft pick to hold on to a player he could be worth looking into, as he went in the 10th round or later in almost all drafts last year.
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