RADIO
I may not be right, but I'll be bold. And if I shoot for the moon, maybe I'll hit the stars. That being said, let's dive right in.
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10 Bold Predictions for 2016
(1) Jonathan Schoop will lead all second basemen in home runs.
Schoop has never hit more than 16 homers in a season as a minor or major leaguer. Nonetheless, this prediction may not be as bold as it sounds. Despite an early knee injury that limited him to 89 games, Schoop hit 15 homers in 2015. He is built like a tank. And with a walk rate under 3%, he's not going to leave the bat on his shoulder. He also had the 21st highest exit velocity of any homer last year (highest among second basemen), which is consistent with his strength and hard-hitting approach. At 24, he is still entering his power peak.
(2) Justin Verlander will win 20 games.
Win/loss records are largely unpredictable for pitchers, and only two pitchers had 20 wins last year, but here we are nonetheless. Why? Because I am betting on the Tigers' lineup, an improved pen, and a retro-Verlander. While the old k-rate was not there last year, Verlander showed down the stretch in 2015 that he still has it, posting a 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and nearly seven innings per start in his 15 second-half starts. It appears that 2014 was a fluke, and that a workhorse, good ERA pitcher will return. Add in the lineup and bullpen as previously mentioned, and Verlander jumps from 5 wins in 2015 to 20 in 2016.
(3) Victor Martinez will be a top 100 player.
Victor Martinez is currently the 235th player coming off draft boards. He's old by baseball standards (37), and is coming off a knee injury. However, on the plus side, he's a year removed from his knee injury. In 2014, his age 35 season, he hit .335/32/87/103/3. In his seasons before 2014, he hit .301, .330, .302, and .303. He is a professional hitter, although the 2014 power output was a career high and unexpected. Nonetheless, his lineup features Kinsler, JD Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and Justin Upton, to name a few. Throw in a .300 average and some power, and we have a top 100 hitter on our hands. Given his spring hamstring injury, this prediction is even bolder.
(4) Chris Davis will eclipse his career high of 53 homers.
Davis went on a prolonged struggle from the beginning of 2014 through around the end of May of 2015. There were explanations for 2014: he did not have a therapeutic use exemption from MLB for Vyanese, which he had in the past, and he suffered an oblique injury early in the year which may have lingered. There was not as clear an explanation for the early 2015 struggles. Nonetheless, after swatting 53 long balls in 2013, he hit 19 in the first half of 2015 despite having the most homers robbed of any player in MLB. He then hit 28 in the second half. With a little better luck and without such a prolonged slump, he could eclipse his career high.
(5) AJ Ramos outperforms Trevor Rosenthal.
Ramos is currently the 16th closer taken while Rosenthal is the 4th. As I detailed in my relief piece, Rosenthal has struggled with walks, leading to WHIPs of 1.41 and 1.27 the past two years. He benefitted from the Cardinals winning 100 games last year, but the Cardinals have since lost Jason Heyward and John Lackey to a divisional rival, Lance Lynn to Tommy John, and Jhonny Peralta for an extended period of time. Ramos, on the other hand, flew under the radard with 32 saves last year after taking over for Steve Cishek, compiling a 1.01 WHIP. With the return of Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton, combined with a healthier Yelich and a likely improved Osuna, Ramos could see even more save opportunities.
(6) Chris Bassitt will be a top 70 starter.
This may not seem bold, but Bassitt is currently the 124th starting pitcher off draft boards. In his 13 starts last year, Bassitt was 1-8 with a 3.58 ERA. Looking by month, his ERA was 1.80 (June), 3.24 (July), 2.48 (August), and 7.82 (Sept/Aug). This is not surprising for a pitcher who threw only 86 innings in 2014 and threw 155 in 2015; he wore down. Bassitt was also fairly successful in his five starts in 2014 with the White Sox, and despite having a 6.6k/9 rate in the majors, he has a high k-rate in the minors. He can hit 95 with his fastball, and he possesses a curve, slider, and change, giving him a nice mix of stuff. Pair that with a pitchers' park and an improved Athletics' offense, and we may have a top 70 pitcher on our hands.
(7) Dustin Pedroia will outperform Matt Carpenter.
Pedroia is currently going as the 16th second baseman, while Carpenter is going as the 4th. From 2011-2014, Pedroia averaged 149 games. Last year, finally healthy from a wrist ailment, his power bounced back. While being limited to 93 games, his 162 game averages were .291/21/80/73/3. Matt Carpenter posted .272/28/101/84/4. However, he is likely to bat leadoff this year, reducing his RBI totals. His 28 homers stood out like a sore thumb from his 6, 11, and 8 the previous 3 seasons. If his power returns closer to his career levels than his 2015 level, and if Pedroia stays healthy, this bold prediction will become reality.
(8) Mark Trumbo will hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs.
The latter prediction is probably a little too big for my britches, but when you ask for bold, I swing for the fences. And Trumbo will be doing a lot of the same as the likely number five hitter for the Orioles. Despite only having 100 RBI once (2013) and having 36 homers and 125 RBI over the last two years (230 games) combined, he will be playing in the hitter-friendly AL East parks in a lineup that is improved from the one that was ninth in MLB in runs last year. He will set a new career high in RBIs, while also finding the fountain of youth in the HR department.
(9) Carlos Beltran will slash .285/30/85/85.
In Beltran's two years in New York, Beltran has gone .233/15/46/49 and .276/19/57/67. However, he battled a pesky elbow injury that appears to be a thing of the past. In 67 second half games last year, he slashed .292/12/36/37. With the short right-field porch in New York and a short right field in Baltimore, if Beltran is healthy, we could see a rejuvenated 39 year old.
(10) Chris Carter will set a new career high in homers (37+)
Carter has always been a three true outcome player. After averages of .223 and .227 in 2013 and 2014, he ended with a .199 average last year after losing his full-time role due to his struggles. Nevertheless, in 460 plate appearances he knocked out 24 balls. In 2013-2014, he put 66 in the seats. He now moves from Houston, admittedly a hitter friendly park, to the third most homer-friendly park for righties in all of baseball. If he hits well, he should regain a full-time role, and have the ability to set a new career high in homers.
