I love late round fliers. What’s not to like? They are your last few picks on draft day (besides DEF/K) so there is very little risk involved, and if they hit, you look like a fantasy football genius. If they don’t hit, you just cut them and move on to the hot waiver pickup of the week. You can’t lose with these guys, unless you drop them and they end up becoming relevant. That has definitely happened to me before.

Anyways, in this column about four deeper fantasy football draft sleepers, I’ll look at NFL players being taken in the 14th round or later of 12-man fantasy football drafts (outside the top 156 players). These players are true late-round fliers that I think could provide major value over the course of the season. They are far from a guarantee, but at the end of the draft it’s all about upside, not safety. Let's find some sleepers and dominate those drafts!

Editor's Note: to read about more 2015 fantasy football draft sleepers, be sure to check out our running list of ADP values that can return draft day profits and help you dominate your leagues.

 

Deeper Sleepers for Fantasy Football - Later Round Fliers

RB Matt Jones, Washington Redskins - Fantasy Pros ADP 228 / RB71

Matt Jones wasn’t big on my radar until the Redskins took him in the third round despite the steady production of Alfred Morris. Per Player Profiler, Jones isn’t very athletic (SPARQ-x score in the 48th percentile) and wasn’t very dominant in college (25th percentile College Dominator rating) but he was BIG. AT 6’2” 232 lbs, he was the tallest and heaviest running back drafted this year. His 4.61 40 yard dash wasn’t very impressive, but his Speed Score, a metric that adjusts 40 times for weight, ranked 5th of all backs at the combine. That was ahead of several well regarded prospects including T.J. Yeldon, Duke Johnson and Ameer Abdullah. So while his combine numbers don’t pop out, when adjusted for his size he isn’t a bad prospect at all.

Now that Jones has seen some time on the field in the preseason, he is turning some heads. In two preseason games so far, Jones has put up an extremely impressive 6.3 YPC on 13 carries and had a goal line touchdown as well. Via Pro Football Focus, Jones is 2nd among all RBs with at least 10 carries in yards after contact per attempt. He is also the highest graded of the Redskins backs in the preseason so far.

He isn’t stealing Alfred Morris’ job anytime soon but as far as handcuffs go, Jones looks to be one of the better ones for this season. If you draft Alfred Morris early or you are in a deeper league where some backup running backs are being drafted, put Matt Jones on your radar. Morris has yet to miss a game in his career but that can change quickly in the NFL. Morris’ yards and YPC have declined in each of his seasons as well. If that trend were to continue, it may not even require an injury to put Jones at the top of the depth chart. I’m definitely not counting on it but with Jones looking strong in the preseason I’ll be taking a late flier on him.

 

WR Brandon Coleman, New Orleans Saints - Fantasy Pros ADP 233 / WR74

There has been a lot of buzz on Brandon Coleman over the past couple of weeks so I wouldn’t be surprised if his current ADP is actually quite a bit higher than what is listed. When you are getting praise in such a high volume offense like the Saints, people take notice. Brandon Coleman is a big receiver at 6’6” 225 lbs  with a very solid 4.56 40 yard dash which puts him in the 91st percentile for speed score.

During the offseason, the WR3 role looked to be Nick Toon’s. Toon had already grabbed that role in the final six games of 2014 after Brandin Cooks’ injury. Toon has let the role slip away in the preseason and now it seems all but assured after suffering a high ankle sprain in the second preseason game. Coleman was already receiving praise from HC Sean Payton well before Toon went down with an injury. Unfortunately, despite the praise and his play during practice, Coleman has not done much in the actual preseason games. In fact, he’s caught zero passes on just two targets. That is a serious concern. If Coleman can’t perform in the preseason, how can we expect anything in games that count? I’ll be closely watching Coleman in the final two preseason games to see if he can actually catch a few balls. At his size, he could compete with the tight ends to become the top red zone threat in an offense that lost Jimmy Graham. That is enough of a reason for me to take him at the end of a draft.

 

TE Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Fantasy Pros ADP 298 / TE29

I was pretty bummed when Jordy Nelson went down with what appears to be a torn ACL. He is a fantastically productive receiver that was Aaron Rodgers favorite red zone target. The injury sucks and is a big blow to the offense for sure. Yet when you have a QB as talented as Rodgers, nearly all of the production is likely to get absorbed by other receivers rather than disappear with the loss of Nelson. Most of the hype is surrounding second year receiver Davante Adams who was drafted in the second round last year. Some hype is also going to Jeff Janis, drafted in the seventh last year. Very little attention is going to another potential benefactor, tight end Richard Rodgers.

Rodgers is yet another second year player in this offense, having been drafted in the third round. Rodgers saw a decent amount of playing time last year as the second tight end behind Andrew Quarless. Rodgers started to get some attention in the offense down the stretch, receiving more targets than Quarless over the final seven games including playoffs. It’s not just that he was seeing more targets, Rodgers was also more efficient, recording a better catch rate and getting two touchdowns to Quarless’ one during that time.

Rodgers is expected to be the top tight end this year, but can he really take some of Jordy’s targets away from Davante Adams? I think so. Adams was incredibly inefficient down the stretch. In the second half of the regular season and during the playoffs, Davante Adams recorded an abysmal 51.2% catch rate. That was lower than any other Packers WR or TE that saw at least 10 targets during that span by 14%.

Meanwhile Richard Rodgers catch rate was 75%. Aaron Rodgers was giving Richard Rodgers high praise for his hands late last season. Even prior to the Jordy injury, Rodgers was being talked up as a potential red zone threat. In one of the best offenses in the game, I’d rather take the bait on this news and spend a late round pick on this guy than watch him score touchdowns for someone else and end up as a TE1 for them. Davante Adams and Jeff Janis may still get most of Jordy’s targets, but in the red zone don’t be shocked if it’s Richard Rodgers grabbing the touchdowns.

 

TE Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals - Fantasy Pros ADP 178 / TE22

Eifert is a guy I’ve talked about before, but he is worth writing about again. Despite the fact that I have seen some buzz around Eifert in the fantasy community and that his Fantasy Pros consensus rank is TE11, Eifert’s ADP remains surprisingly late. Eifert is extremely athletic, see for yourself on Player Profiler. He was supposed to be a big part of the Bengals offense last season and while injury got in the way, that plan is in place once again for 2015.

Eifert picked up right where he left off last year. Before dislocating his elbow late in the first quarter of the first game in 2014, Eifert already had three catches for 37 yards. In the first preseason game of ‘15, Eifert had two catches for 30 yards on just 15 snaps. It’s obviously a very small sample size but it’s a very promising sign that Eifert is set to deliver on the expectations many have had for him since he was drafted.

As I wrote previously about Eifert, I expect 90+ targets for him. This number was based on the effect that the less talented receiver Jermaine Gresham saw 78 targets last year and Gresham and Eifert combined for 119 in 2013 in a more pass happy offense where the receivers were healthy. With the health of the Bengals receivers back again and Eifert uncontested as the primary tight end, 90 targets seems like a safe bet. That would have put him in the top ten targeted tight ends last season. Given Eifert’s athleticism and the pass catching ability he has flashed in limited action thus far in his career, I’m willing to bet that leads to a breakout season. That makes him a fantastic bargain. If you wait at TE, Eifert should be the number one guy you target.

 

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