Winning a fantasy baseball league often depends upon finding value in the middle and end of the draft. Today I'm going to focus on a few starting pitchers from the American Leagues who fit the bill.

You can find more draft values and potential sleepers in our running list all preseason long, and be sure to also check out our rankings dashboard which is loaded with lots of great analysis.

Without further ado, here are five potential draft day bargains.

 

Starting Pitcher Draft Values - American League

Yu Darvish (TEX, ADP 122.0)

AL Pitcher Rank - 18th

When drafting a core crew of starting pitchers, many fantasy owners are weary of spending valuable picks on injury prone players, especially strikeout machines coming off Tommy John surgery. Such is the fear surrounding Texas Rangers ace Yu Darvish, who appeared in just one spring training outing in 2015 before going under the knife. Fortunately, the issue was realized so early, giving Darvish a chance to return before missing a sizable chunk of 2016. Specifically, the standard 14-month recovery timetable would bring him back some time in mid-May.

Now, let's not forget who we're talking about here. This is not some above-average pitcher coming off injury. This is a perennial Cy Young contender, three-time All-Star (in just three total MLB seasons) and strikeout king of the MLB. In 2013, Darvish's 11.9 K/9 led the league and was two full strikeouts more per nine innings than the second-place finisher, Max Scherzer. Darvish struggled with some elbow soreness near the end of 2014 as well, limited his effectiveness and ultimately leading to his ligament issues.

When healthy, Darvish is one of the most dangerous pitchers in the league and can single-handedly win fantasy matchups by dominating the strikeout column. Behind a strong Rangers squad in 2016, the 29 year-old will likely rack up the wins as well. Don't reach too far ahead, but Darvish is definitely worth the stash for a top-tier pitcher in the final three quarters of the season.

 

Anibal Sanchez (DET, ADP 261.3)

AL Pitcher Rank - 28th

It's been an up-and-down few years of Anibal Sanchez. After finishing fourth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2013, Sanchez struggled mightily in 2015, posting a 4.99 ERA (with an equally damning 4.73 FIP) and giving up 29 home runs, tied for the most in the AL. This number is truly puzzling, considering Sanchez allowed the lowest HR rate in the league in his dominant 2013 campaign with a 0.4 HR/9 figure.

The soon-to-be 32 year-old suffered his worst season since 2008, some of which can be attributed to a lingering shoulder issue that eventually led the team to shut him down near the end of last year. In June, it finally seemed as if Sanchez were settling into a groove, posting a 2.63 ERA for the month, a .196 opposing BABIP, and finishing a complete game shutout. However, he collapsed in the following months, signified by his 5.71 ERA and 11 HR allowed in July and part of August.

Still, we've all seen what Sanchez can do. 2013 and 2015 were both anomaly years for Sanchez, whose true talent probably lies somewhere in the middle of that range. With a career 3.70 ERA in 11 MLB seasons, it's unlikely that Sanchez will land in the 5.00 range again. Unfortunately, it's just as unlikely that he finishes among the league leaders in that category at his age. Still, I'm willing to bet he'll be better than many of the guys being taken before him, i.e. Kevin Gausman (249.7 ADP) and Jimmy Nelson (242.0 ADP).

 

Rick Porcello (BOS, ADP 291.3)

AL Pitcher Rank - 41st

After finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, Rick Porcello has fallen off a bit in the years since. The Morristown, New Jersey native has certainly had some problems keeping guys off the base paths, with a 1.359 career WHIP. Some of his problems in Boston during the 2015 season can be attributed to lousy defense, as shown by the difference in Porcello's 4.92 ERA and 4.13 FIP, a staggering .79 points. With the Pablo Sandoval to Hanley Ramirez combo in 2016, that poor defense may have become even worse.

There are some positives here. Namely, Porcello got much better as the year went along in 2015. After the All-Star break he was solid, recording a 3.53 ERA in 11 starts and went 7+ innings in 10 of those starts. Porcello's chief strength is his durability. Not only can he go deep into games, but also he avoids injury and starts, on average, more than 30 games per year, never starting less than 27.

The Seton Hall Prep alumnus only managed nine wins last season, the lowest total of his career. Well, the Red Sox were garbage last year. It's almost a guarantee that his win total will increase in 2016 due to a bolstered offense and one of the strongest bullpens in the game. At the end of the day, Porcello is one of the most reliable pitchers in the game and is very likely to improve upon his 2015 figures, making him a better bet than a handful of the 40 AL pitchers ranked before him.

 

Hector Santiago (LAA, ADP 345.5)

AL Pitcher Rank - 49th

This one seems like a no-brainer. Hector Santiago posted a 3.59 ERA in 2015, was an All-Star, and continues to be an essential part of the Angels rotation heading into 2016. Yet he's going undrafted in many leagues and is ranked outside the top-100 pitchers in fantasy. The man was an All-Star! Sure, that accolade may be overvalued. Regardless, Santiago is a young, improving pitcher who has proven to be reliable across all categories. His WHIP has steadily climbed down over the past three years (1.403 in 2013, 1.359 in 2014, 1.256 in 2015) while his innings have increased to the ranks of full season, every day starter.

That's what makes his ranking so baffling. There are guys ranked above him who may not find themselves in a rotation in 2016. There are a handful of guys above him who definitely will not be starters at the beginning of the year (looking at you, Lucas Giolito and Yovani Gallardo). Santiago's biggest struggle in 2015 was home runs, as he allowed 29 across 180.2 innings. It's the first time in his career that he's allowed more than 20, indicating that it's not likely to happen in the future. While everybody else is scooping up so-called high ceiling players whose value will never pan out in 2016, don't forget about the guys who can actually be relied upon.

 

Martin Perez (TEX, ADP 468.0)

AL Pitcher Rank - 74th

Martin Perez has seen an awfully volatile start to his young career. After displaying the best April in the MLB in 2014, (1.42 ERA through five starts, two CG shutouts, 5-0 record) Perez went down in May with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. He wouldn't return until after the 2015 All-Star break, posting a 4.46 ERA over 14 starts. Strangely enough, Perez suffered some of the worst luck of any pitcher in the league, as his 3.40 FIP would suggest he was much better than his ERA shows. There's no reason to assume that bad luck will continue, making it reasonable to expect his ERA will be back in the 3-to-4 range in 2016. This alone makes him more valuable than his ADP.

In all fairness, Perez will be on a short leash this year. He currently occupies the fifth spot in the Rangers rotation, with highly-touted prospect Chi Chi Gonzalez looming at the six-spot. Fortunately for Perez, he will have some time to prove himself while Darvish completes the last few months of his rehab from Tommy John. Also, what are the odds that Derek Holland stays healthy for an entire year? Pretty low. The chances that Perez (if he can stay healthy himself) will be a starter for the entire 2016 season seem pretty strong. With the upside that he has shown in the past, Perez could absolutely be a worthwhile gamble in the late stages of the draft.

 

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