X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Outfield Sleepers For 2016: NL Edition

As mentioned yesterday, it's difficult to quantify what exactly in the age of Big Data constitutes a sleeper.

For purposes of this analysis, any player outside the top 100 who has potential to turn a significant profit relative to their ADP qualifies. Again, all ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyPros.

And be sure to check out more of our sleeper articles, which we've been churning out all preseason and will continue to crank out until the season starts.

 

National League Outfield Sleepers

Joc Pederson - OF, LAD

ADP: 169

Despite a second-half collapse, Pederson still hit 26 home runs and posted a 15.7% walk rate in his rookie season. Yes, the contact issues will continue to suppress his batting average. The lack of stolen bases (just four in 11 attempts) was a disappointing development as well. However, Pederson averaged 29 steals in his four minor league seasons and posted much higher Speed scores than he did in his first MLB campaign. With Don Mattingly out of the picture, Pederson should have a longer leash during the inevitable slumps that come with being a three true outcomes hitter.

Steamer projects another 26 homers, but also 14 steals and 87 runs. Even with a low batting average, that kind of category juice merits a top-30 outfield ranking, especially factoring in Pederson’s growth potential. Instead, he's currently the 42nd outfielder off the board, going 50 picks later than Gregory Polanco and 80 (!) picks later than the man he replaced as the Dodgers' center fielder, Matt Kemp.

 

Jorge Soler - OF, CHC

ADP: 171

Note: this article was published before Dexter Fowler signed with the Cubs, potentially affecting the playing time and fantasy value of all Cubs outfielders.

Soler got a cup of coffee with the Cubs in 2014. The then 22 year old Cuban phenom gave the Wrigley faithful and fantasy owners alike plenty to get excited about, slashing .292/.330/.573 with five homers in just 97 plate appearances. While his fantastic walk rates didn't carry over from the minors, the rest of his game sure did. Kris Bryant was a near-unanimous choice among prognosticators for NL Rookie of the Year honors - and he ultimately won a unanimous vote - but Soler got attention as a dark-horse candidate for the award. Unfortunately, he stumbled out of the gate and never really recovered, ultimately turning in an underwhelming .262/.324/.399 line with 10 homers in 101 games. His strikeouts spiked while his power disappeared, and he looked overmatched at times, particularly against breaking pitches. His 67.8% contact rate was 207th of 211 hitters with at least 400 PA, and his swinging strike percentage was higher than all but seven of those players. So the problem here isn't exactly hard to identify.

Despite the drastic reduction in power, Soler's batted ball data holds plenty of reason for optimism. We've established the contact issues, but when he did get wood on the ball, Soler generally crushed it. Nearly 28% of his batted balls were line drives, and his 35.9% hard-hit rate put him in the top 30 among everyday players. This would seem to support his .361 BABIP, which kept his production from completely cratering. Steamer anticipates some regression there, but also a rebound in his power and strikeout rate. Given the improvement Soler had already begun to show in his plate discipline in the second half and postseason, that seems like a smart bet.

 

Michael Conforto - OF, NYM

ADP: 230

Though he had fewer than 200 plate appearances above A-ball, the Mets were aggressive in promoting Conforto last July. Thrown into the fire of a pennant race, Conforto shined, putting together a .270/.335/.506 line with nine homers and 56 R+RBI in 56 games. The power was somewhat surprising, as his .236 ISO was well above the .165 mark he posted in his brief minor-league career. Conforto's junior season at Oregon State was a hitting clinic, as he posted a .345/.504/.547, but even that results in a lower ISO than his rookie season, as the slugging percentage was mainly driven by a high average.

So no, he's probably not going to maintain a 30 HR pace over a full season. As you might guess from his track record, though, he's a good bet to keep making hard contact. He produced a 22.6 LD% and a hard hit rate above 40% to go with solid plate discipline, so there's room to grow in the batting average department. Somewhere in the .280 - .290 range with 20 homers and what should be decent counting stats in a solid Mets lineup? Not a bad return in the late rounds, that.

 

Stephen Piscotty - OF, STL

ADP: 268

I've been more vocal to this point in support of his teammate Randal Grichuk, but Piscotty is going almost 100 picks later in drafts right now. He shouldn't be. Take a look at the batted ball distance leaderboards over at Baseball Heat Maps. There's Piscotty just outside the top 10, sandwiched between some guy named J.D. Martinez and the reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson. (Also Howie Kendrick, which...what?) Then consider that Piscotty posted this mark while hitting nearly 60 percent of his fly balls to the opposite field. Then note that Piscotty, per FanGraphs' Mike Podhorzer, posted a fairly remarkable .350 xBABIP.

Small sample size? Yes. Fluke? Maybe, but maybe not. Piscotty did make a conscious effort to alter his swing mechanics in the offseason in order to tap into more power. So far, at least, it appears to be working. Steamer is skeptical, of course, but that's based almost entirely on his good but not great minor league numbers. There's certainly enough upside here to justify taking a flier at the end of the draft.

 

Jayson Werth - OF, WAS

ADP: 307

Let's get the bad stuff out of the way. Werth is entering his age-37 season. He's averaged just 111 games per season since 2012 due to a variety of injuries. And 2015 was the worst season of his career. The end is nigh for my favorite active player, there can be no argument. Nothing gold can stay, after all.

That said, Werth was pretty awesome in the two seasons prior to 2015, hitting .304/.396/.491 with 41 homers, 19 steals, and 333 R+RBI in 276 games. Even last year, he maintained his typically excellent plate discipline and batted ball profile. The driving force behind his struggles last season, besides the usual injury issues, was a .253 BABIP, 72 points below his career rate. This was only the second time he'd ever posted a mark below .300, and the underlying numbers simply don't support it.

Werth is basically a lock to get hurt and miss time at this point. But for his current price tag, you can bet I'll be looking at his name at the end of drafts this year.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

 

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel4 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray4 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele4 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler6 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson6 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele6 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle6 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans6 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic7 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric7 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney7 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga7 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant7 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith7 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen7 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara7 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele7 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes7 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson7 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic7 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar7 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton8 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert8 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones8 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji8 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee8 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards8 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani8 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson8 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo8 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley8 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque8 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez9 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler9 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel9 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley9 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal10 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes10 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis11 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer12 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw12 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler12 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager13 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz13 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds15 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano16 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad17 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov17 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto17 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin18 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard18 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins18 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist18 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear18 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More