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It happens every year: A bunch of players produce way above or below expectations, and we spend the entire offseason arguing over whether or not the improvement or decline was genuine. Separating the wheat from the chaff when it comes to last year’s performances can be the difference between a championship season and bitter, abject failure for your fantasy team. After all, if you ain't first, you're last.
This week's breakout/bust series wraps up with a look at the players who should pick up right where they left off in their lousy 2015 campaigns.
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Deja Vu All Over Again: 2016 Busts
If you follow baseball, you already know how awful Sandoval was last season. Using the FanGraphs version of WAR, only seven players have had worse years during this millennium. Not exactly what either he or the Red Sox were hoping for in the first season of his five-year, $90 million deal. Unfortunately for both parties, while it’s unlikely he’ll be that bad again, he still doesn’t project all that well for 2016.
Coming into last season, some owners bet on improved production from the Panda on the basis of him moving from AT&T Park to the much friendlier confines of Fenway, as well as what figured to be a strong Boston lineup. But look at his average 5x5 line from 2012-14: .280-14-60-72-0. Even with a generous boost to those numbers, he’d still be a fringe starter in the majority of leagues.
Sandoval has shed a bunch of weight this offseason (again) and will only be 30 in August. Still, he has a long way to go to even get back to his previous mediocre fantasy production.
Moss had 21 home runs and an .878 OPS at the All-Star break in 2014. In the season and a half since, he’s hit 23 homers and posted a .625 OPS. Here are his slugging percentages from the last four years: .596, .522, .438, .407. He’s always been a batting average liability thanks to high strikeout rates. Without the power to offset that, he’s not worth rostering in all but the deepest mixed leagues - and I'm not prepared to bet on a bounceback for him at age 32.
Steamer agrees, projecting him for a .240 average with 18 homers and 101 R+RBI. At Moss’s positions, you can do a hell of a lot better than that. Their plate appearance estimate (404) might seem a bit low, but Moss doesn’t actually have a firm grip on a starting job right now. The Cardinals will start Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk in the outfield, and Matt Adams figures to get the majority of the starts at first base.
We’re all drafting Hamilton for one thing: stolen bases. Well, maybe you’re drafting him for stolen bases. I’m not drafting him at all, because he’s a horrendous hitter and a drag on every other category. As a rookie in 2014, Hamilton barfed up a .250/.292/.355 line and somehow managed to do markedly worse last season. That said, true 80-grade speed is rare, and the kid has it without a doubt. He also dramatically improved his success rate on thefts last year, which means there's more room for growth.
It’s tantalizing to think about Hamilton singlehandedly winning a category for your team, but he can’t do that – or provide value anywhere else – if he doesn’t become a viable major league hitter. Until he proves he can do that (don't hold your breath), you’re better off grabbing a guy like Delino DeShields or Gregory Polanco. They won’t swipe as many bags as Hamilton, but they’ll come much cheaper and won’t torpedo you in other areas.
Perhaps more than with any other player, I was particularly vocal about my lack of confidence in Teheran both before and during last season. Where others saw a 24 year old coming off a season in which he’d posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, I saw far too many red flags to justify the price tag. Teheran’s velocity was the most concerning issue. He’d lost nearly three MPH on his fastball since breaking into the majors in 2011, an alarming trend for any pitcher, but particularly for one ostensibly in his physical prime. Teheran’s flyball-heavy profile seemed dangerous given this loss of velocity and the questionable outfield defense behind him. There was a case to be made that my view of Teheran was overly pessimistic. After all, despite the decline in velocity, his swinging strike rate had actually been trending up. While his strikeouts were down a bit, his walk rate remained excellent and most of his batted ball data didn’t suggest any imminent danger.
Teheran ended up one of the bigger fantasy disappointments of the season, but it didn’t go exactly as one might have anticipated. He actually allowed more grounders than flies for the first time in his career, and had a virtually identical strikeout rate to the previous season. The long ball was still an issue, however. More surprisingly, his BB% spiked by nearly three percentage points. The cause was fairly simple – hitters simply stopped chasing as much. Teheran’s O-Swing% fell from 33.2% to 28.7%.
Teheran did show some signs of improvement in the second half, as better pitch selection led to an increased strikeout rate. However, he continued to struggle with walks and home runs.
At this point, it honestly feels like Cashner has been a popular breakout pick since roughly the dawn of man. He’ll actually only turn 30 this year, though. His career has been one big disappointment due to injury, ineffectiveness, or a combination thereof. Guess how many times Cashner has managed to put together 180 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA and a K/9 above 7.00? If you guessed “zero,” you are a winner.
Speaking of wins, Cashner has managed to hit double digits in that category a whopping one time. Judging from his ADP in the early going, fantasy owners are finally not holding their breath on this guy. Follow the wisdom of the crowd on this one.
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