Fantasy Football Stock Rising / Falling After Preseason Week 2

 

News, Notes and Fantasy Football Analysis

Week 2 of NFL Preseason Action

With another week of preseason football in the books, several key fantasy contributors have once again had their draft stock altered in one way or another. There are risers/fallers, sleepers being made, busts in sight, rookies to scout, injuries and more. It’s not uncommon for players to fluctuate from  every bit of news that flares up in August.  As long as you’re able to pick and choose which storylines to bet on, your draft strategy should be just fine. Luckily for football fans, one of the major NFL storylines has reached a temporary conclusion while others are beginning to become clearer by the day.

Unlike the first week of the preseason, week two brought Atlanta Falcons left tackle Sam Baker’s season to an end after tearing his patella tendon. It’s a big blow to what many believed to be an improved offensive line following a horrific performance in 2013. The Falcons will shift rookie Jake Matthews to the left side but the injury to Baker raises a red flag that the Falcons O-line might not be as improved as we once thought. That would be a blow to the entire offense but for now I’m not overly concerned with the team’s fantasy value.

Of course another big story is the arrest of Le'veon Bell and Legarrette Blunt for DUI / marijuana possession, but for now it seems like this minor run-in with the law will be of little impact in fantasy football.

Outside of the expected player absences there weren’t really any significant player omissions to cover during the second batch of preseason games.

Guys like Arian Foster and Reggie Wayne continue to make a slow return to form and that’s fine as long as they don’t encounter any setbacks. The players to take note of this week are ones that have actually had a tangible impact on the preseason thus far.

 

Fantasy Football Stock Rising

1)   Ben Tate, RB Cleveland Browns

One of the more intriguing off-season signings this year was that of former Arian Foster backup Ben Tate by the Cleveland Browns. Tate has proven throughout his career that he is one of the most reliable backups in all of football and with a chance to finally be a starter in Cleveland, fantasy owners have kept a keen eye on his progress.

The initial draw of Tate as a potential fantasy star was that he was the lone man in Cleveland on a team that will undoubtedly have to rely on their run game. Rookie Terrance West has crept up on Tate as a potential sleeper at running back but after Tate’s pre-season week two showing, it’s clear who the main back is on the Browns.

Tate averaged 5.1 yards per carry against the Redskins and had took the majority of the reps with the first team offense. That’s a fairly big vote of confidence in a guy who has shown to have health problems in the past. I would argue that his injury history is a bigger threat to his fantasy value than the threat of Terrance West. Tate showed he can roll with the first team offense with ease so as long as he can stay on the field I have no issue drafting him. I would expect Tate’s current average draft position of a late fourth round pick to rise fairly quickly and with good reason.

 

2)   Andy Dalton, QB Cincinnati Bengals

This one surprises even myself. I have never really been a big Andy Dalton fan but you can’t completely ignore 144 yards and a touchdown while going 8-8 on pass attempts. Couple that performance with a 2013 campaign that saw Dalton finish as a top 5 QB in most points formats (yea, that's right) and you’ve got yourself an interesting sleeper candidate. Look, I’m not suggesting anyone suddenly thrust Dalton into the top 10 of their quarterback rankings but he’s certainly one of the safest backup QBs in fantasy.

“Stock rising” doesn’t always represent a player that you should definitely target but rather a guy you should pay attention to as the season moves along. Would I draft Andy Dalton over the likes of Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, or Jay Cutler? Definitely not. But would I consider drafting Dalton as a backup earlier than normal just in case one of those guys doesn’t pan out? Absolutely.

 

3)   Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee Titans

Just based off pure numbers alone one could easily state that Justin Hunter is this week’s Brandin Cooks. Hunter’s 111 yards and two touchdowns on five targets indicates that he can play in an offense that doesn’t exactly have the best quarterback in the league. Jake Locker is an okay passer on an okay team but when you consider Hunter’s ADP as a 14^th rounder he’s a hard lottery ticket to pass up. Sure I would much rather have a guy like Kelvin Benjamin who has an opportunity to be the number one receiver on a team but I would much prefer Hunter over the likes of Hakeem Nicks.

In fact, in looking at the group of players going ahead of Hunter, I wouldn’t have any issue with taking him a round or two earlier than where he is currently going. Hunter’s big role in this pre-season game should be viewed as a potential sign that the team intends to open up the offense a little more as they attempt to sort out their running game. It’s conceivable that both Tennessee wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter possess considerable fantasy upside given where they are being drafted.

 

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Fantasy Football Stock Falling

1)   Robert Griffin III, QB Washington Redskins

So it turns out that faux Monday Night Football game actually had intriguing quarterback storylines on both sides of the ball. In case you were wondering, Robert Griffin III still hasn’t figured out how to slide properly.

That’s a huge problem for a quarterback who consistently gets lit up by defensive players as soon as he scrambles out of the pocket. The problem with RG3 has never really been his talent so much as it’s been his health. Last year, RG3 was extremely limited due to the knee brace he wore all season and the coaching staff trying to protect him. Heading into the 2014 season, many expect RG3 to return to form now that the restraints have been lifted and he is fully healthy. Problem is, if he keeps running around the way he has been he’s not going to be on the field for very long.

Again, this isn’t a question of talent, it’s purely about the health risk attached. RG3 is currently going in about the sixth round of fantasy drafts and that’s simply too early for me. If I’m going to wait on quarterback I might as well wait another round and grab a guy with a history of clean health like Matt Ryan.

 

2) The entire Cleveland Browns passing game not named Jordan Cameron

I know, I know, I know; you’re tired of hearing about Johnny Manziel. I promise I’ll try not to say his name all that much in this little blurb.

The Browns passing offense was a wreck in their game against the offense which didn’t do any favors for Head Coach Mike Pettine as far as naming a starter is concerned. Since that dreadful performance, Pettine has decided to trot out Brian Hoyer week one against the Steelers.

That’s probably the best-case scenario for Johnny Manziel so that he can continue to learn and doesn’t end up getting squashed before his career even begins. As far as fantasy is concerned, I can’t possibly envision a scenario where any receiver not-named Josh Gordon ends up being fantasy relevant with that kind of quarterback play. Jordan Cameron should be fine but I’d be lying if I told you I wasn’t at least a little skeptical at this point.

It’s still just the preseason so who knows what kind of passing game will actually show up in September but until then I’m probably avoiding all Cleveland Browns quarterbacks and receivers.

P.S. That blurb becomes a moot point if Josh Gordon’s suspension were reduced or eradicated completely.

 

3) Bishop Sankey, RB Tennessee Titans

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the likelihood of me owning Bishop Sankey this year is virtually nonexistent. It isn’t that I don’t like the guy’s talent or doubt the opportunity available to him it’s that Shonn Greene isn’t going anywhere. Yes, THAT Shonn Greene. In 2014, mind you. The team has been pretty clear in saying that they plan to use a running back by committee approach that makes Greene’s current level of talent basically irrelevant. Committees have little to do with talent available and much more to do with strategy so the counter argument of “but it’s Shonn Greene” is an empty rebuttal. This, in conjunction with Sankey’s overhype as a fantasy darling, suggest he’s on track to be highly over drafted.

You’re basically going to have to reach for him to secure him on your roster and that’s not something I’m comfortable doing. It’s a non traditional definition of “stock falling” for sure but I can’t put any faith into an unproven rookie who can’t even breakaway from Shonn Greene enough to convince his head coach to make him the clear-cut starter over a committee approach.

They say the third week of the pre-season is when teams and players really begin to show their regular season form so hopefully stars begin to emerge. It would be nice to see some of the more questionable players show fantasy owners something so we know what to expect come Week One. Until then, the best we can do is scour for as much information as possible.

 

Fantasy stock practically changes daily so monitor all of the situations mentioned as best you can and make whatever decision you’re most comfortable with. Hopefully the next batch of preseason games offers some more clarity on these storylines but there is sure to be new ones that arise.