Strength of Schedule Analysis - AFC East: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

 

Fantasy Football Matchup Analysis and Draft Prep: AFC East Strength of Schedules

The time around July 4^th weekend is an annual reminder to me that it’s time to start thinking about football season. The preseason, as longwinded and useless as it is for us fans and fantasy footballers, is only about a month away and by the time you know it, Week 1 in Seattle will be underway.

Welcome to the Rotoballer Strength of Schedule series! Over the course of eight beefy diesel articles, we will examine every team’s schedule with an eye toward how it will impact your fantasy football aspirations and how it should impat your 2014 fantasy football draft strategy and preparation.  After reading this series, you will have a solid outlook on which teams have favorable schedules, which players could potentially be great 2014 fantasy football sleepers, and which players can be buy-low or sell-high options based on the timing of their NFL matchups.

At this point, all we can do is look at how teams performed last year, and consider offseason adjustments, and use that as an indicator for this upcoming season.  I’m sure there will be teams that were terrible defensively last year who will be much improved this season, just as the 2012 Saints were consistently one of the best matchups for fantasy offenses as their defense was terrible, while the 2013 Saints had one of the best defenses in the league, but huge changes like that are extremely difficult to predict.

In the subsequent charts, you will see rankings for each position in relation to a team’s schedule. These rankings are based on how many average fantasy points per game a particular team gave up last season to a specific position.  You can use these charts as a reference when reading the analysis for each team. If you see a team is ranked 1^st under a position, this means that they gave up the most amount of fantasy points of any team to that position, and are a great matchup. Similarly, if you see a team is ranked 32^nd under a position, this means that they gave up the fewest amount of fantasy points of any team to that position, and they are a bad matchup. All rankings are based on fantasy points in standard Yahoo leagues from last year. Hopefully you can also use the color codes as a guide. In sum, green = “plus” matchup, orange = “average” matchup, and red = “minus” matchup.

In this first article, we take a look at the AFC East.

 

Buffalo Bills

	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF
1. @CHI	22nd	1st	15th	7th	16th
2. MIA	27th	9th	29th	5th	9th
3. SD	9th	21st	8th	21st	26th
4. @HOU	16th	12th	25th	11th	2nd
5. @DET	20th	26th	3rd	30th	14th
6. NE	11th	15th	20th	15th	24th
7. MIN	1st	8th	2nd	2nd	8th
8. @NYJ	14th	28th	6th	12th	5th
9. BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE
10. KC	18th	16th	16th	32nd	29th
11. @MIA	27th	9th	29th	5th	9th
12. NYJ	14th	28th	6th	12th	5th
13. CLE	13th	14th	23rd	18th	6th
14. @DEN	8th	11th	13th	9th	32nd
15. GB	10th	13th	4th	8th	19th
16. @OAK	6th	5th	11th	19th	7th
17. @NE	11th	15th	20th	15th	24th

Key Takeaway:  Take advantage of the Bills’ skill players this year.

Deeper Analysis: The Bills offensive players will be happy to see that their schedule is pretty soft, and so fantasy owners should take note come draft time. E.J. Manuel has a great playoff schedule, and while he obviously isn’t a viable starter yet in single QB leagues, he can provide great value in two-QB leagues, or as insurance for your starting QB.

Word on the street is that CJ Spiller will get more touches this season; that could be scary-good, as he only has three “minus” matchups all season, two against the Jets. And for those in favor of streaming TE, Scott Chandler will be an attractive play more weeks than not, as he has only one “minus” matchup and has a favorable playoff schedule, getting the Broncos and the Packers, who each gave up over 8.5 fantasy points per game to TE last year. The Bills sometimes get overlooked, but they should be better this year, especially with the addition of rookie WR Sammy Watkins into the lineup.

 

Miami Dolphins

	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF
1. NE	11th	15th	20th	15th	24th
2. @BUF	25th	19th	5th	26th	11th
3. KC	18th	16th	16th	32nd	29th
4. OAK	6th	5th	11th	19th	7th
5. BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE
6. GB	10th	13th	4th	8th	19th
7. @CHI	22nd	1st	15th	7th	16th
8. @JAC	3rd	10th	12th	3rd	4th
9. SD	9th	21st	8th	21st	26th
10. @DET	20th	26th	3rd	30th	14th
11. BUF	25th	19th	5th	26th	11th
12. @DEN	8th	11th	13th	9th	32nd
13. @NYJ	14th	28th	6th	12th	5th
14. BAL	24th	25th	18th	24th	10th
15. @NE	11th	15th	20th	15th	24th
16. MIN	1st	8th	2nd	2nd	8th
17. NYJ	14th	28th	6th	12th	5th

 

Key Takeaway: Stay away from Lamar Miller.

Deeper Analysis: I beg of you. He will be torture to deal with. As a 2013 fantasy owner of Lamar Miller, just don’t do it and save yourself the sleepless nights.  I don’t care that he’s expected to carry more of a workload this season. I don’t care that it’s his third year in the league, when running backs are supposed to take giant steps forward. I don’t care that another year of Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace together will spread the field out and open up more running lanes.

While all of those things might be true, Joe Philbin is still the head coach of the Dolphins, and his usage of Miller last season, in conjunction with Daniel Thomas, was incredibly baffling.  In 2014, Knowshon Moreno-- a much better running back than Thomas-- is in the mix, and I’m not about to enter another year of Russian Roulette with Philbin and his nonsense. Furthermore, the back-end of Miller’s fantasy schedule (including playoffs) is pretty brutal, including four “minus” matchups from Week 10 on, so I would stay as far away from him as possible and let someone else take on the risky proposition.

 

New York Jets

	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF
1. OAK	6th	5th	11th	19th	7th
2. @GB	10th	13th	4th	8th	19th
3. CHI	22nd	1st	15th	7th	16th
4. DET	20th	26th	3rd	30th	14th
5. @SD	9th	21st	8th	21st	26th
6. DEN	8th	11th	13th	9th	32nd
7. @NE	11th	15th	20th	15th	24th
8. BUF	25th	19th	5th	26th	11th
9. @KC	18th	16th	16th	32nd	29th
10. PIT	21st	17th	21st	20th	22nd
11. BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE
12. @BUF	25th	19th	5th	26th	11th
13. MIA	27th	9th	29th	5th	9th
14. @MIN	1st	8th	2nd	2nd	8th
15. @TEN	28th	4th	31st	6th	15th
16. NE	11th	15th	20th	15th	24th
17. @MIA	27th	9th	29th	5th	9th

 

Key Takeaway: CJ2K could be CJ2K again.

Deeper Analysis:  OK maybe not 2K, but Chris Johnson can easily have a very good first season in New York. I think the change of scenery will benefit him, and if the Jets are going to be anything approaching successful this year, they’re going to need to run the ball more, given their lack of skill players on the outside (Eric Decker notwithstanding).

CJ’s schedule sets up very nicely for him. Aside from one tough home matchup against the Lions, he faces a ton of bad and middle-of-the-road defenses leading up to the fantasy playoffs, at which point he gets “plus” matchups against Minnesota in Week 14 and a revenge matchup versus his former team in Week 15.  These teams averaged over 20 points per game to RB last year. Johnson's not a first-rounder anymore, but don’t overlook him when you’re thinking about RB2.

 

New England Patriots

	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF
1.  @MIA	27th	9th	29th	5th	9th
2. @MIN	1st	8th	2nd	2nd	8th
3. OAK	6th	5th	11th	19th	7th
4. @KC	18th	16th	16th	32nd	29th
5. CIN	26th	31st	22nd	29th	21st
6. @BUF	25th	19th	5th	26th	11th
7. NYJ	14th	28th	6th	12th	5th
8. CHI	22nd	1st	15th	7th	16th
9. DEN	8th	11th	13th	9th	32nd
10. BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE
11. @IND	17th	20th	14th	27th	27th
12. DET	20th	26th	3rd	30th	14th
13. @GB	10th	13th	4th	8th	19th
14. @SD	9th	21st	8th	21st	26th
15. MIA	27th	9th	29th	5th	9th
16. @NYJ	14th	28th	6th	12th	5th
17. BUF	25th	19th	5th	26th	11th

 

Key Takeaway: I hope people continue the “Tom Brady is done” talk, so that I can buy low on him after Week 8.

Deeper Analysis: Yes, Tom Brady was not vintage Tom Brady last year. But I am prepared to make several excuses for him. He lost Shane Vereen, arguably New England’s most versatile and dangerous offensive weapon, in Week 1. Gronk was out for all of about 10 minutes last season. The Patriots had virtually zero running game, aside from a few surprise weeks from LeGarrette Blount. And Brady lost his go-to security blanket in Wes Welker to the Broncos-- while Julian Edelman filled in more than admirably, he was pretty much Brady’s only option.

A new season, a new schedule, and a fresh start for Brady, who will hopefully have most of his cast of characters back healthy and his young WR core another year more polished. Brady’s schedule includes some tough matchups in the first half of the year, but after that, it really opens up and he should have some huge games, especially since at that point Gronk will be fully back and recovered. A smart move would be to pounce on Brady after he faces some tough defenses during the middle of the season and maybe has a few mediocre games; buy low from the concerned owner after Week 8 when the schedule opens up.

 

The next post will be on the NFC East so stay tuned!