RADIO
I recently did a mock draft on ESPN, and I thought I would share the results here and discuss some of the picks I liked and didn’t like. I’ll only discuss the first 12 rounds, as after that some people auto-drafted or took defenses and kickers (as many casual players are wont to do). My picks are in bold. As always, feel free to comment or reach out to me with your thoughts @Roto_Dubs.
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2015 Fantasy Football 12-Team Mock Draft
Round 1
(1) Eddie Lacy RB
(2) Le'Veon Bell RB
(3) Marshawn Lynch RB
(4) Jamaal Charles RB
(5) C.J. Anderson RB
(6) Aaron Rodgers QB
(7) Adrian Peterson RB
(8) Demaryius Thomas WR
(9) Arian Foster RB
(10) Antonio Brown WR
(11) Matt Forte RB
(12) Andrew Luck QB
Not much to be surprised about here. I would have expected Adrian Peterson to be in the top four as opposed to Marshawn Lynch, but honestly any argument you could make against Lynch you could also make against Peterson. I’m not sure how someone can reach for C.J. Anderson that early with AP on the board though.
I took Antonio Brown because, as you’ll see, I firmly believe that you can find running back value in the later rounds, especially if you’re not going to get one of those top four or five guys. Brown seems like the safest bet at wide receiver in terms of volume and reliability—he simply isn’t going to drop off the face of the Earth on a random week. 6-8 catches every week and a 50/50 shot at a touchdown? I’m in.
I still don’t believe in taking a quarterback in the first round, mostly due to position scarcity. The guy drafting 12th may have Andrew Luck, but at the end of the season is that first-round pick going to significantly out-produce say, Drew Brees? Matthew Stafford? Ben Roethlisberger? In my opinion you have to get top-of-the-line talent at the skill positions, then worry about a quarterback later on. This guy could have been looking at a roster of DeMarco Murray AND LeSean McCoy with Drew Brees as a kicker. That’s going to outperform Andrew Luck, Murray and whatever running back or wide receiver he ends up with later on.
Round 2
(13) DeMarco Murray RB
(14) LeSean McCoy RB
(15) Dez Bryant WR
(16) Rob Gronkowski TE
(17) Odell Beckham Jr. WR
(18) Mike Evans WR
(19) Jordy Nelson WR
(20) Calvin Johnson WR
(21) Julio Jones WR
(22) Alshon Jeffery WR
(23) A.J. Green WR
(24) Randall Cobb WR
Speaking of consistent wide receivers, Dez managed to fall to me at pick 15, and I simply couldn’t resist. Starting off a roster with arguably the top two wide receivers in the NFL is going to produce good results in any format.
I might be one of the only people who truly believes that DeMarco Murray is still capable of Round 1 production. Everyone points to the presence of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles as the main reason Murray will regress, but I think many people are severely overestimating how much they’ll be used. Murray is still going to be the feature back in a Chip Kelly offense, and is the best option at the goal-line. If you can get him in Round 2 in addition to your first-round pick, jump at the chance.
It seems that nobody here was willing to reach for a mid-level running back, which is somewhat surprising to me. Typically you’ll see someone go after Jeremy Hill or perhaps Frank Gore at this point, but the run on wide receivers proves that there may be more people on the “wait for a running back” bandwagon than I thought.
Round 3
(25) T.Y. Hilton WR
(26) Jeremy Hill RB
(27) Jimmy Graham TE
(28) Mark Ingram RB
(29) Emmanuel Sanders WR
(30) Justin Forsett RB
(31) Alfred Morris RB
(32) Frank Gore RB
(33) Lamar Miller RB
(34) Jonathan Stewart RB
(35) Melvin Gordon RB
(36) Seahawks D/ST D/ST
That 12th guy again—took a defense in the third. We’re just going to go ahead and write him off…
The only other pick I take issue with is with Jimmy Graham. He will still likely be a top five tight end come December, but there are too many warning signs with him. First and foremost, he’s not playing in New Orleans any more. People underestimate quarterback favoritism in my opinion. Almost every quarterback has a “safety blanket” option—Cam Newton has Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler had Brandon Marshall, and if Tony Romo needs a first down you better believe he’s looking for Jason Witten. Jimmy Graham was that guy for Drew Brees, and he was able to rack up yards and touchdowns as the primary offensive weapon. That won’t be the case in Seattle. When the Seahawks get in close, they’re looking to run it in…at least when they’re not in the final seconds of the Super Bowl. Graham will be good, but he won’t be a 3rd-rounder for me.
I had Lamar Miller snatched away right before my pick, but I have a lot of faith in Jonathan Stewart as a back-up choice. From Week 14-on last year, Stewart averaged 5.1 yards per carry as the feature back in the Carolina offense. If you watched even a quarter of Panthers football in any of those weeks, you saw that the numbers were no fluke. I expect Stewart to produce similarly in 2015, hopefully playing 16 games for the first time in…ever? I want to say ever.
Round 4
(37) DeAndre Hopkins WR
(38) Carlos Hyde RB
(39) Russell Wilson QB
(40) Kelvin Benjamin WR
(41) Jordan Matthews WR
(42) DeSean Jackson WR
(43) Andre Ellington RB
(44) Joique Bell RB
(45) Brandin Cooks WR
(46) Golden Tate WR
(47) Peyton Manning QB
(48) Julian Edelman WR
I strayed a bit from my typical strategy and went with a quarterback here. Wilson isn’t going to stop running, and his passing numbers could be even better with Graham as a weapon. I wasn’t thrilled about it looking back, but I didn’t see any running backs I wanted to take this early and I’m pretty set at wide receiver. Never go into any draft with a set game plan--always be ready to adapt on the fly.
I don’t have any real issues with any of these picks. I’m one of the only people on the planet who thinks Joique will be the primary back for the entire season, so I don’t mind that he went this early. Everyone else is right around their ADP, and I don’t see anything wrong in this round.
Round 5
(49) Drew Brees QB
(50) Sammy Watkins WR
(51) Latavius Murray RB
(52) T.J. Yeldon RB
(53) Ben Roethlisberger QB
(54) Andre Johnson WR
(55) Todd Gurley RB
(56) C.J. Spiller RB
(57) Keenan Allen WR
(58) Tevin Coleman RB
(59) Vincent Jackson WR
(60) Amari Cooper WR
I’ve seen Latavius Murray go as high as the third round in some mocks I’ve done, and he would have been my pick for sure had he fallen to me. The only reason I didn’t take him sooner is the fact that he’s on a really bad team. It’s that simple. The Oakland o-line is bad, bad, bad, and I don’t know that Murray will have the space to rack up 1,000 yards. Touchdowns will also still be hard to come by too.
Looking back, I regret the Tevin Coleman pick, as there are a lot of red flags for him heading into the season. He’s got a shot to be the RB1 in Atlanta, but regardless of whether or not he starts, Devonta Freeman will probably steal a healthy handful of carries. The offensive line is suspect as well, but Coleman isn’t without upside. If he develops into a feature back that could be a really nice value pick.
This might be too early for Vincent Jackson. I expect Austin Seferian-Jenkins to break out as a red zone threat this year, and the emergence of Mike Evans has made V-Jax obsolete on the outside. There’s no telling what the rookie curve will be like for Jameis Winston either. It wasn’t an egregious drafting error, but definitely not a pick I would have made.
Round 6
(61) Greg Olsen TE
(62) Brandon Marshall WR
(63) LeGarrette Blount RB
(64) Giovani Bernard RB
(65) Travis Kelce TE
(66) Darren McFadden RB
(67) Rashad Jennings RB
(68) Martellus Bennett TE
(69) Kevin White WR
(70) Matt Ryan QB
(71) Isaiah Crowell RB
(72) Joseph Randle RB
I had Greg Olsen in my queue, but he was taken right before he fell to me—I love consistency, and it’s a rare trait at the tight end position. As it was I wound up with LeGarrette Blount, who for all his off-field woes has been productive as a New England Patriot. I don’t see any reason why this would change in 2015, especially if Tom Brady is out for four games. Blount is one of the meanest power backs in the game, and he’ll have his fair share of touchdowns no matter what.
I can’t fathom how Darren McFadden went ahead of Joseph Randle. McFadden’s ineptitude over the last couple years should afford Randle a clear shot at the RB 1 spot, and I think he’ll take it and run with it (pun intended). He’s got the physical skills, the youth, and the offensive line to be a star.
I’ll note here that I’m not touching a Browns player with a 39-and-a-half foot pole this year. If I HAD to, it’d be Crowell, but since I don’t have to, I won’t.
Round 7
(73) Julius Thomas TE
(74) Mike Wallace WR
(75) Michael Floyd WR
(76) Jason Witten TE
(77) Jeremy Maclin WR
(78) Jarvis Landry WR
(79) Zach Ertz TE
(80) Allen Robinson WR
(81) Eric Decker WR
(82) Chris Ivory RB
(83) Brandon LaFell WR
(84) Doug Martin RB
No shockers in this round. I’d take Jason Witten over Julius Thomas, simply because I think Witten will see an uptick in usage and Thomas will sniff the end zone maybe 10 times all year.
I ended up with Chris Ivory here against my better judgment. Ivory is a one-dimensional runner, but he’s good at what he does—knock people on their rear-ends. He won’t ever be a feature back, and Bilal Powell is likely to be the third-down option, but I don’t see how the notoriously unsuccessful duo of Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy cut into his carries all that much. He won’t get enough touches to be an RB2, but as a FLEX or fill-in option, I'm okay with it.
Round 8
(85) Martavis Bryant WR
(86) Nelson Agholor WR
(87) Breshad Perriman WR
(88) Cam Newton QB
(89) Ryan Mathews RB
(90) Philip Rivers QB
(91) Shane Vereen RB
(92) Tre Mason RB
(93) Roddy White WR
(94) Torrey Smith WR
(95) Ameer Abdullah RB
(96) Charles Sims RB
I was targeting Breshad Perriman going into the draft, and I was perfectly happy to snag him in round 8. He’s stupid-fast (4.24-40 at the Combine) and has the body (6’2”, 212 lbs.) to be a monster on the outside. Flacco isn’t shy about airing it out every now and then, and I think Perriman will have some big games in the second half of the season as he adapts to NFL coverage.
I think getting Shane Vereen in this round could be a steal, particularly in PPR formats. The Giants offense will be pass-heavy in 2015, and as Victor Cruz and OBJ stretch the field, Vereen should have plenty of room to run on screens and quick routes.
Round 9
(97) Devonta Freeman RB
(98) Bishop Sankey RB
(99) Duke Johnson RB
(100) Tony Romo QB
(101) Knile Davis RB
(102) Andre Williams RB
(103) Anquan Boldin WR
(104) Charles Johnson WR
(105) Lorenzo Taliaferro RB
(106) Larry Fitzgerald WR
(107) Dwayne Allen TE
(108) Percy Harvin WR
I’m rooting for you, Bishop Sankey, I really am. The Titans recently committed to him as the starter, but on a bad offense with a worse offensive-line, I like the power game of rookie David Cobb over Sankey’s…I’m not sure, he didn’t look good at much of anything last year. I’m not touching the Titans run game this year, but if I had to make a call I’d say Sankey is the backup by Week 4.
With Carson Palmer back in Arizona I couldn’t pass up Larry Fitzgerald here. The Cardinals gave him a huge deal ($22 million over the next two years), proving they’re committed to him as the primary receiver, and I think he’ll return to the top 20 in 2015. He’s still the same freak he’s always been when it comes to reeling in passes, and his red zone usage should improve. Might be my steal of the draft.
Round 10
(109) Eli Manning QB
(110) Tom Brady QB
(111) DeVante Parker WR
(112) Fred Jackson RB
(113) Montee Ball RB
(114) Malcom Floyd WR
(115) Jordan Cameron TE
(116) Kendall Wright WR
(117) DeAngelo Williams RB
(118) Marques Colston WR
(119) Theo Riddick RB
(120) Davante Adams WR
If Fitzgerald isn’t my potential steal of the draft, DeVante Parker is. The stud rookie should instantly slide into the WR1 role in Miami, and while he’ll probably be limited in the first couple weeks as he recovers from foot surgery, I expect him to make an immediate fantasy impact. He’s going to be the top red zone threat in a much-improved Dolphins offense, and he could very well wind up with eight TDs and 800 yards.
Nothing else in this round really stands out to me--Brady had his suspension upheld so he should only play 12 games, making a late pick like this a good decision if you want him for a playoff push.
Round 11
(121) Bills D/ST D/ST
(122) Denard Robinson RB
(123) Jerick McKinnon RB
(124) Texans D/ST D/ST
(125) Jay Ajayi RB
(126) Rams D/ST D/ST
(127) Sam Bradford QB
(128) Cody Latimer WR
(129) Terrance West RB
(130) David Cobb RB
(131) Donte Moncrief WR
(132) Dorial Green-Beckham WR
We’re into flier/D/ST territory now. I went with David Cobb for the reason I mentioned above—I think he’ll supplant Bishop Sankey as the RB1 in Tennessee. Shonn Greene was already cut from the team so with Cobb as the main backup he has a shot at RB3 production despite playing on a bad team.
Donte Moncrief could be one injury away from starting in the Colts offense—if Hilton or Johnson go down, Moncrief could quickly become a WR3/FLEX option. As it is now, he’s no more than a lottery pick.
Dorial Green-Beckham should be a matchup nightmare for any corner at 6’5” and 237 lbs. Justin Hunter is dealing with legal problems, meaning that there will be some targets up-for-grabs as well. Unfortunately, his fortunes rest on the production of Marcus Mariota. If Mariota adapts well to the NFL, Green-Beckham could be a solid WR3, as I expect him to catch a healthy share of whatever touchdowns the Titans manage this year.
Round 12
(133) Connor Barth K
(134) Steve Smith Sr. WR
(135) David Johnson RB
(136) Jets D/ST D/ST
(137) Broncos D/ST D/ST
(138) Eagles D/ST D/ST
(139) Ryan Williams RB
(140) Dolphins D/ST D/ST
(141) Reggie Bush RB
(142) Ravens D/ST D/ST
(143) Cardinals D/ST D/ST
(144) Victor Cruz WR
Here come the defenses. I ended up waiting on a defense so that I could take a flier on David Johnson. Andre Ellington proved he’s not capable of handling the duties of a feature back, and while he’ll still be heavily involved in the offense it could be Johnson who sees a decent chunk of the goal-line work. This is, of course, assuming he proves himself to be a better option than Stepfan Taylor or Kerwynn Williams, which I think he could definitely do.
It’s a shame to see Victor Cruz fall this far, but I definitely think it’s justified. A torn patellar tendon is not an average injury, and at less than a year removed from it I don’t like Cruz’s chances to return to his pre-2014 form. Combine that with the amount of targets he’ll lose to OBJ and Shane Vereen and you’ve got a guy who will be a FLEX option on the very best of weeks.
