Fantasy Baseball 2013 Shortstop Sleepers: ADP Arbitrage – Jose Reyes vs. Erick Aybar

Click for advice about drafting shortstops and fantasy baseball strategy for how to compare projections during your draft.

Mitchell Jacobs - RotoBaller

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Series, ADP Arbitrage.  Here RotoBaller takes a look at two players and compares them by both projected statistics and average draft position.  Today we will look at the shortstop position; you can view the Shortstop Rankings with ADP Comparison here. If you want RotoBaller to compare two players you do not see listed in the ADP Arbitrage, head over to the Ask Us section and request an ADP arbitrage for any two players at any position.

IMG 7588 Erick AybarNYM Jose Reyes 7 cropped

 Jose Reyes vs. Erick Aybar

DISCLAIMER – is NOT suggesting you wait around 180 picks to obtain your starting SS.  If you do, any fantasy baseball owner shall NOT hold responsible for league dues or awards for winning any league.  If have the Middle Infield position in your league, Aybar should strongly be considered. 

Jose Reyes  (26.6 ADP)Reyes is a lock for 30-40 SB and at least 100 R, pending health.  There is a plethora of power hitting behind him in Toronto, and Reyes is highly motivated, healthy and excited about the new-look Jays' lineup.  He lacks power but has some place-setters hitting at the back end of the lineup which will add to Reyes possible RBI opportunities.

2013 Projections:  109 R, 12 HR, 61 RBI, 38 SB

Erick Aybar (181.7 ADP) Aybar was a potential sleeper candidate in 2012, which could have come to fruition if it weren't for the emergence of Mike Trout.  Aybar missed some time in July and August, and finished the season only appearing in 141 games, at which time he was on pace for career highs in R and HR.  Aside from the time he missed, he maintained an improved BA and OBA.  He will be batting in the 2-hole in a very interesting lineup, hitting after Trout and followed by Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.  As long as Aybar can maintain that lineup slot, there is nothing to suggest he won’t score a ton of runs, steal a couple of dozen bases and hit some bombs to boot.

2013 Projections:  85 R, 12 HR, 61 RBI, 24 SB


Net Net:

Reyes has the ability to score a ton of runs for the Blue Jays and is a lock to leadoff all season long.  He also has potential to steal will over 40 bases, although that’s looking a bit unlikely.  Aybar hasn’t taken that turn yet, but the potential is there; the issue that mostly lies with Aybar is that though he will begin the season batting second, there are guys like Howie Hendrick who can move into that spot putting Aybar batting ninth.

The projections provided for Aybar above are easily achievable.  It was a very good sign that he was able to hit .290 in 2012.  Reyes will score 20+ runs and 15 more SB than Aybar.  To start Aybar at your SS would be gutsy, but with Aybar at pick 181, investing in his potential to outperform those projections is the kind of move that wins fantasy leagues.  Long shot, yes, but imagine that One-Tool Fool Aybar scores 95 runs and steals 30 bases batting .285?  In 2012, only three players scored more than 95 runs and 30 stolen bases, so that would put Aybar in rarefied air.

Think about perceived vs. expected value during your draft. That’s how ADP Arbitrage will help you win your league.