Fantasy Baseball 2013 Second Base Sleepers: ADP Arbitrage – Martin Prado vs. Brandon Phillips

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Mitchell Jacobs - RotoBaller

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Series, ADP Arbitrage.  Here RotoBaller takes a look at two players and compares them by both projected statistics and average draft position.  Today we will look at the second base position; you can view the Second base Rankings with ADP Comparison here. If you want RotoBaller to compare two players you do not see listed in the ADP Arbitrage, head over to the Ask Us section and request an ADP arbitrage for any two players at any position.


Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: ADP Arbitrage – First Base

Martin Prado (120.6) vs. Brandon Phillips (67.8)

Martin Prado (ADP 156.5):Prado has quietly been a very productive and valuable fantasy player, especially when you consider where he is typically drafted.  He has a career batting average of .295 and has hit at least .300 in three of the last four years.  We stress those stats because Prado is a guy who is a strong plus in BA, and he also acceptably fills out the stat sheet in the other categories.  Prado is batting second in the Diamondbacks' lineup behind Adam Eaton (or whomever Arizona slots in during his absence), and in front of Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel and Paul Goldschmidt.  That’s a lineup that can score a lot of runs in a very offense-friendly ballpark.  The most important fact about Prado is his position flexibility which should not be overlooked with his ability to be slotted at 2B, 3B, SS, MI, and CI.

2013 Projections:  .300 BA, 89 R, 12 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB

Brandon Phillips (ADP 72.1):Phillips has potential to hit 20+ HR and while he hasn’t done that since 2008, he has hit 18 HR in each of the past three years.  Phillips has the potential to steal at least 20 bases, and while he hasn’t done that since 2009 he has averaged 15 over the last three years.  The point is that Phillips has the potential to be a 20/20 guy at second base, but will more likely be in the 17-17 range.  He is being drafted on potential and and those results aren't likely. Phillips's draft position is also a bit high and tough to swallow considering the ceiling of a .275 BA. Batting in the Reds' lineup offers a lot of upside,  and he will certainly score a ton of runs and get solid stats across the board. He shouldn’t be completely looked over, but at his current ADP, he is a bit expensive.

2013 Projections:  .275 BA, 95 R, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB

Net Net:

Prado may not get you as many R, HR or RBI, but he will steal more bases and hit for a better average in addition to offering you major position flexibility. Some people feel it's a reach for Prado at his CBS ADP of 120.6 (beginning of the 11th round).  But looking at that difference between these two 2B, Prado is a steal at 60+ picks later than Phillips.

Think about perceived vs. expected value during your draft. That’s how ADP Arbitrage will help you win your league.