RADIO
Put away the novels, stop binging on Netflix, cut back on that productivity you’ve been showing at work, and warn your families. Baseball is back! We have about 12 more weeks of playoff-race baseball before the summer ends and football takes over. Let’s make the most of the rest of this season.
Click here to check out a longer piece that I wrote reflecting on the first half of the season from a DFS standpoint. Hopefully it contains something that will entertain you if not help you. But now, back to the daily analysis.
Boy that layoff seemed longer than four days. I was so bored I even put together a golf lineup, and I found out why I don’t usually put together golf lineups (I’m not winning). But hey, it’s back. We have a full Friday slate on July 17th including a day and night doubleheader between the Royals and White Sox. We will disregard the early game and focus on the 15 games starting at 7:05 or later. Let’s get to it!
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Offenses to Target for FanDuel DFS
Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Mike Fiers, RHP)
In case you missed the drama, the Pirates ended the first half of the season by taking three games from the MLB-best Cardinals. They scored 17 runs in those three games combined, and two games ended on walk off hits after trailing in extra innings. Wow!
The offense is finally starting to show its potential, as everyone is getting their hacks in. Lefty Gregory Polanco should remain in the leadoff spot, and his price is still cheap enough to provide value against a righty. Hopefully Neil Walker can stay hot after the short break, as he also provides tremendous value against homer-prone righties. Pedro Alvarez and Jung-Ho Kang are also candidates to go deep against Mike Fiers despite their lack of power in the first half of the season. Of course Andrew McCutchen is in play too, as we were just starting to see his power return in the Cardinals’ series. His home run in the All Star Game is a good sign of a possible power surge in the second half.
Fiers has a 1.79 HR/9 at home this year, and that number jumps to 2.22 when at home against lefties. Take your pick of Pirates bats in this one, as the team will be looking to explode out of the gates and catch the Cardinals in the NL Central before they pull away again. Miller Park should see multiple home runs on Friday.
Cleveland Indians (vs. Mike Leake, RHP)
I guess we’re picking on the Mikes today. Mike Leake also has a fairly high 1.57 HR/9 at home in his hitter-friendlly ballpark, and his number also jumps against lefties at home to 2.10. The Indians are full of lefties who can mash. If you go with a cheaper pitcher in a tournament, you can feel great loading up on guys like Jason Kipnis (179 wRC+ vs. lefties), Michael Brantley (123 wRC+ vs. lefties), Carlos Santana (131 wRC+ vs. lefties), and even the struggling Brandon Moss (career 115 wRC+ against righties) as long as he’s playing. Moss is definitely a reach after his putrid finish to the first half, but the power is definitely there. The price has fallen enough to where I like the upside as a tournament play.
Honorable Mentions: Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals
DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for FanDuel
Jose Fernandez (SP, MIA) - $10,500
A $600 jump in price is certainly justifiable considering this matchup and the show that Fernandez put on against Cincinnati last week. He provided those who trusted him a solid 20 points by racking up nine strikeouts in seven innings without letting up a run. It’s #JoseDay in a different park on Friday, but a similar result is to be expected against one of the worst offenses in the league in the Phillies.
Fernandez has shown awesome control to go along with his huge strikeout ability. Regression is sure to be coming for the young star, but I don’t think it will be Friday in Philly. If you’re looking for a safer option, Sonny Gray against the Twins is another solid cash game play. I would love to call Clayton Kershaw safe, but who knows with this guy anymore.
Charlie Morton (SP, PIT) - $7,400
If you want to go cheap on pitcher Friday, it’s going to take some guts. “Ground Chuck” returned flawlessly from his injury at the end of May. He carried a 72% ground ball rate through his first three games. However, he has only gone above 60% once in six games since. Miller Park can be a nightmare for fly-ball pitchers, so Morton will certainly be looking to keep the ball on the ground in this one. The Brewers bats were waking up as we stopped for the All Star Break, but if Morton can eclipse that 60% ground ball mark and limit walks, he should throw some solid innings and get enough run support for a win.
DFS Infielders to Target for FanDuel
Yasmani Grandal (C, LOS) - $3,600
In the final two series’ heading into the All Star Break, Grandal had six hits in four games started. Two of those hits were homers, and one was a double. He’s seeing the ball very well lately, especially against righties (170 wRC+ vs. righties). His production lately certainly warrants the high price.
Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) – $2,400
For Duda, the All Star Break might’ve come at the wrong time, as he was seemingly starting to get his power back. He homered twice in the final series (once off a lefty and once off a righty). Although he’s statistically better against lefties this year, Duda has always been able to crush righties. At this price, we can take a chance on a potential rebound for Duda after the short layoff.
Neil Walker (2B, PIT) - $3,200
I’ve touched on Walker already in the stacking section, but I love this guy today. He has great power against righties, and the hitter’s park and homer-prone pitcher make his decently-high price reasonable. Walker should have RBI chances as well as good hitters behind him to drive him in.
Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) - $3,200
Carpenter fell off the face of the Earth for about a month. His price point was consistently in the $4,000 range, and now it’s far less. However, he showed signs of life in his final series against the Pirates, going 4 for 12 with a homer, four RBI, and five runs. He’s definitely capable of putting up huge fantasy games, especially against righties like Syndergaard. Hopefully the break helped him get back on track.
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) - $3,000
Bogaerts is another player that certainly did not want the All Star Break to come. He was in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak that included four two-hit games and one four-hit game. He has seemingly found his stroke that we dreamed about this offseason, and his price point will soon climb if he keeps this up. Bogaerts also has a 136 wRC+ against lefties like C.J. Wilson.
DFS Outfielders to Target for FanDuel
Michael Brantley (OF, CLE) - $3,200
Brantley was starting to settle into his own groove prior to the break. He had a five-game hitting streak before ending the first half with a 0-3 game. We know from last year that he’s capable of going on a tear and contributing stats in every possible category. A series in a hitter’s ballpark including a game against a homer-prone righty might be just what Brantley needs to get going again.
Melky Cabrera (OF, CWS) - $2,900
After everyone and their mothers were done with Cabrera, he went ahead and finished the All Star Break by getting hits in 13 of the last 15 games. He even displayed some double and homer power that was so foreign throughout most of the first half. It seems the switch-hitter is turning it around, and a lot of his success recently has come off of righties like Chris Young. His price is still very reasonable, too.
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) - $2,300
I can’t get away from a leadoff hitter in this potent of an offense with this much upside at this price. Polanco has the ability to get on base, hit balls over the fence, and steal bases on any given night (as long as the opposing starter isn’t a lefty). He’s facing a righty in Fiers, so I’m going to be rostering him once again until his price tells me not to.
Good luck with your FanDuel and DFS lineups RotoBallers!
DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6PM on 7/17
