Welcome back! I hope everyone had a great 4th of July holiday. Tonight we have a 14 game main slate scheduled on FanDuel. The lone day game today features the Cubs visiting the Reds at 2:20 EDT - just in case you're interested in playing an All Day competition. I'll be focusing my picks on the Main slate, which begins tonight at 7:05 EDT.

As for any insight we might be able to draw from Vegas lines, the games today with the highest projected run totals are the Padres at Diamondbacks (9.5), the Royals at Blue Jays (9.5), and the Athletics at Twins (9.5). The heaviest favorites of the day are the Giants (-230), the Red Sox (-185), and the Blue Jays (-165). It's a pretty weak slate overall in terms of hitters at parks with high positive factors, but nonetheless, the best of the day are the right-handed batters of the Yankees and White Sox, the left-handed batters of the Indians and Tigers, and the right-handed batters of the Royals and Blue Jays.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/5/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.

 

DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel

The Cleveland Indians versus Anibal Sanchez

If you're familiar with my writeups, you're probably aware I like to attack pitchers using platoon splits. That is, I usually suggest stacking left-handed OR right-handed batters against a certain pitcher. As is the case tonight with the Indians and Sanchez, however, I think you can make the case to just select their strongest hitters at the top of the order, as hitters from both sides of the plate have hammered Sanchez this season. He's allowed a .474 slugging percentage to lefties and a .549 percentage to righties all while surrendering nearly two home runs per nine innings. My favorite Indians hitters tonight are Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Frankie Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Arizona Diamondbacks versus Christian Friedrich

Friedrich doesn't have any platoon split numbers that jump off the board or scream "target against," but he has been wild and at times ineffective this season (1.93 WHIP). He also has failed to perform well or hit value in his last three outings, doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, and tonight he does not have the benefit of pitching in uber pitcher friendly San Diego. I think this potent Diamondbacks lineup will get to him early and often, making for a long night for Mr. Friedrich and a profitable one for you and me. My favorite Diamondbacks hitters tonight are Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Wellington Castillo and Yasmany Tomas.

Also Consider: Toronto Blue Jays versus Chris Young

 

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel

Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE) - $10,200

Carlos Carrasco has been Mr. Consistency of late, exceeding value in his last four starts. In his two most recent performances, he eclipsed 60 FanDuel points and blew past his price implied value with ease. Tonight, he has a fairly strong chance of matching those stellar outings, as the man who has allowed an astonishing 16% hard hit rate in the last 15 days takes on a Tigers team that is very prone to striking out against right-handed pitching. In fact, they've struck out in 27% of their at-bats against right-handers this season, and that bodes well for Carrasco and his 10.34 K/9 - the highest figure of any pitcher starting tonight.

Kenta Maeda (SP, LAD) - $8,600

Any time you march out a pitcher that's facing an explosive offense like the Orioles, you're rolling the dice. Tonight, I'm willing to take on those risks in tournament formats to roster Maeda, as I think the potential for low ownership and a high strikeout game is there. Like Carrasco, Maeda has shown good consistency, eclipsing value in seven of his last eight starts and also boasts an impressive hard hit rate over the past 15 days of just 25%. Maeda is at home in his pitcher friendly ballpark, and faces an Orioles team that goes down swinging in nearly 30% of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching this season. I also think it bodes well for Maeda that Orioles hitters haven't faced him before.

Also Consider: Madison Bumgarner (SP, SFG) - $11,400

 

DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel

Catcher (C)

Wellington Castillo (C, ARI) - $2,700

As I alluded to above in my stack suggestions, I like the Diamondbacks hitters for a number of reasons tonight and expect their hitters to see ample RBI opportunities. One of my favorites in that bunch is Castillo, who is not only a steal at $2,700, but also has monster power platoon splits - as showcased by his .302 ISO.

 

First Base (1B)

Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) - $2,200

No, he certainly isn't cash game friendly, but he's a great GPP sleeper with the potential for huge numbers tonight. He matches up well with Mike Foltynewicz, who gets crushed by left-handed hitters, and is an absolute steal at this price. Howard has platoon splits in wOBA and ISO that are more than 100 points greater when facing a right-handed pitcher.

 

Second Base (2B)

Devon Travis (2B, TOR) - $2,700

Travis is another guy today where I had to check and double check his price to make sure I wasn't dreaming. He's a huge bargain and could have the best matchup of the night in terms of opponent. Chris Young has the worst hard hit rate over the last 15 days of any starting pitcher tonight, and Travis' platoon splits are very strong - .401 wOBA, .221 ISO.

 

Shortstop (SS)

Marcus Semien (SS, OAK) - $2,800

Mr. Semien has been in a bit of a slump over the past few days, but there is still a lot to like about tonight's matchup. For starters, his platoon splits are monstrous - .293 ISO, .626 slugging percentage - against left-handed pitching and he gets a slight park upgrade tonight leaving Oakland. I also love the fact that opposing pitcher Tommy Millone has been hammered this season by right-handed hitters. It could be a big night for Semien and company.

 

Third Base (3B)

Yangervis Solarte (3B, SDP) - $2,600

Solarte is another tournament sleeper that I love today for his upside and matchup, too. He enters tonight swinging a hot bat, having homered in each of the past two nights, and his price is still well below 3K. Solarte has an impressive .356 wOBA split and while the .185 ISO split isn't anything to get too excited about, he does get a park upgrade tonight and should be able to handle opposing pitcher Zach Godley just fine.

 

DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - $3,800

Since I saved so much cash with my infield selections, I'll have little trouble spending up for the likes of Betts and Bryce Harper. Betts has been swinging the stick well lately, exceeding value in three of his last four games. His platoon splits are still very impressive, despite cooling off a bit this season - .371 wOBA, .223 ISO - and he's a steal anytime you see him listed with an under 4k price tag.

 

Miguel Sano (OF, MIN) - $2,800

Sano has a beautiful matchup tonight in that he faces poor Sean Manara, who still can't seem to retire hitters or keep the ball in the yard. Sano hits left-handed pitching very well, as marked by his .401 wOBA and .257 ISO this season.

 

Bryce Harper (OF, WAS) - $3,800

Despite up and down performances over the past few weeks, advanced metrics reveal that Harper could be putting up even bigger numbers but has been the victim of bad luck. He sports a hard hit rate of over 41% in that time span, and has a top 15 batted ball distance among all outfielders tonight. Of course, his platoon splits are strong as well - .421 wOBA, .265 ISO.

 

Also Consider: Yasmany Tomas (OF, ARI) - $2,500

 

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