RADIO
Last week was about as perfect as a week as we could have hoped for, as all four of my targets won, and several were in some of the winning tournament lineups across the industry. My "avoid" pick also turned out well, as Gegard Mousasi took a spinning kick to the face to end his night early, along with anyone's who had him for the high price.
This week we have a top-notch card in UFC 192, as Daniel Cormier takes on Alexander Gustafsson. Hopefully we can continue to nail some of the top plays on the weekend!
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
1. Sage Northcutt (10.5k)
You haven't heard of Sage Northcutt? Well, no biggie, but you probably should know his name heading into UFC 192. Northcutt is a 19-year-old MMA prospect making his UFC debut, and he's got a real chance to be a threat in the division, even if it comes several years down the road.
The kid is a world-champion karate-style striker, but his overall game is more than solid, and he faces a relatively lackluster opponent in Francisco Trevino. Normally I wouldn't jump on someone in his situation, but the pricing is well off on DraftKings.
When salaries were released, Northcutt was a -250 favorite, but he's since climbed to -470, making the biggest favorite on the board and an easy value to target.
2. Albert Tumenov (10.3k)
Albert "Einstein" Tumenov will probably be making quite a few appearances in my lineups this weekend, as he gets a tough but solid DFS matchup in Alan Jouban. What I mean by that is Jouban is a good fighter and possess dangerous power in his hands, but Jouban's approach to fighting isn't always the smartest, and he'll probably choose to stand and try to beat Tumenov on the feet.
That's not a great idea.
Tumenov is a super-talented and technical kick boxer, and he's put on impressive performances already in the UFC. I think he'll have the advantage on the feet, and since the fight will should primarily take place on the feet, I expect him to earn a solid amount of points. He has the capability of finishing the fight early, which is great for all formats, but he's also a safe play for the price.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
1. Rose Namajunas (10.6k)
I've listed Rose Namajunas as one of my favorite GPP plays because I think she has a clear route to a finish. If she doesn't finish this fight against Angela Hill, I'm a little concerned about her point total, and for the price, she might not be worth it.
She'll probably have a decent shot in the stand up, but that's where Hill is at her best, and Namajunas will more than likely look to take the fight to the ground. That's where I think she'll have the true advantage and a great chance to earn a submission.
Namajunas is coming off a poor loss to Carla Esparza in the 115 title fight, and I'm not sure if she'll be heavily targeted. But I do know that she has potential to earn a first round finish, so she's definitely going to be a target of mine.
2. Alexander Gustafsson (8.4k)
Whoa, now I'm really going out on a limb here and taking one of the biggest underdogs on the board in Alexander Gustafsson. I actually don't mind Gustafsson in cash, because I think there's a reasonable chance he could get the fight to a decision, and if that's the case, he should more than pay off his 8.4k of salary.
In GPPs you need the win though, and this is more of a gut call, but I think he has a real shot. Yes, Daniel Cormier probably has the overall advantage and certainly has the wrestling advantage, but I'm not as confident as many that Cormier will be able to get the fight to the ground so easily.
I think there's a reasonable chance that Gustafsson can avoid the takedown in a few rounds, and if he can stay on the feet, he should be at a striking advantage. He's so cheap that he allows you to spend up on several fighters, and here's hoping he can pull three rounds out of nowhere and earn a decision victory.
MMA DFS for DrafKings – Fighters to Avoid
1. Joseph Benavidez (10.9k)
Joseph Benavidez comes in as the second-most pricey fighter at 10.9k, and he is a -340 favorite. He seems safe for the win, kind of like Mousasi did last week, but I'm just not sure he can pay off the price.
If I'm spending up that high, I want a finish, and I think it's relatively unlikely that Benavidez gets one. His best shot is probably to grab hold of a guillotine against Ali Bagautinov, but submission grappling is also Bagautinov's strong point.
If the fight goes to a decision, I just don't see Benavidez scoring enough. I'd much rather spend the extra $100 to take a chance on Cormier or drop down and save some cap.
Hope you enjoy! Follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley and @DailyFanMMA
