One of the ideas that's been in the minds of impressionable fantasy owners for who-knows-how-long is that running backs have a breaking point after a certain amount of carries. It's a tiring argument that stems from some very high profile cases including Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Shaun Alexander, who all managed to hit the big 350+ and then fall off the earth the following year.

Except when they didn't. Shaun Alexander hit 350 carries in 2004 with a monster stat line of 1696 yards with 16 touchdowns and followed it up with an even bigger fantasy record setting year in 2005 with 370 carries, 1880 yards and 27 touchdowns. Following 2005, Shaun Alexanders career ended.

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Terrell Davis had 369 carries in 1997 and put up 1750 yards with 15 touchdowns, encoring that performance in 1998 with 392 carries for 2008 yards and 21 touchdowns. In 1999, Davis career would be over after an ACL tear early in the year, an injury that's never been associated with contact or usage.

Clinton Portis had 352 carries in 2005 carrying a tune of 1516 yards and 11 touchdowns. In the preseason of 2006, Portis would injure his shoulder making a tackle after a turnover and then suffer an injury to his hand in the regular season- two injuries that would keep him sidelined for most of his following season.

Since 1970, there have been 56 cases of a RB hitting 350+ carries. Normally, this myth stays dormant until a player reaches the 350 number and it rises it's ugly head again, and that's exactly what happened last year. DeMarco Murray hit 392 carries in 2014 and becomes the only player on that list currently without a conclusion.

Let's take a look at the other seasons.

 

Running Backs With Over 350 Carries All Time

Rk	▴	Year	Age	Tm	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	>1000, 6 Next year	>1200, 8 Next Year
1	Shaun Alexander	2004	27	SEA	353	1696	4.8	16	Y	Y
2	Shaun Alexander	2005	28	SEA	370	1880	5.08	27	N	N
3	Marcus Allen*	1985	25	RAI	380	1759	4.63	11	N	N
4	Jamal Anderson	1998	26	ATL	410	1846	4.5	14	N	N
5	Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	357	1860	5.21	9	Y	N
6	Jerome Bettis*	2000	28	PIT	355	1341	3.78	8	N	N
7	Jerome Bettis*	1997	25	PIT	375	1665	4.44	7	N	N
8	Earl Campbell*	1981	26	HOU	361	1376	3.81	10	N	N
9	Earl Campbell*	1979	24	HOU	368	1697	4.61	19	Y	Y
10	Earl Campbell*	1980	25	HOU	373	1934	5.18	13	Y	Y
11	Stephen Davis	2001	27	WAS	356	1432	4.02	5	N	N
12	Terrell Davis	1997	25	DEN	369	1750	4.74	15	Y	Y
13	Terrell Davis	1998	26	DEN	392	2008	5.12	21	N	N
14	Eric Dickerson*	1984	24	RAM	379	2105	5.55	14	Y	Y
15	Eric Dickerson*	1988	28	IND	388	1659	4.28	14	Y	Y
16	Eric Dickerson*	1983	23	RAM	390	1808	4.64	18	Y	Y
17	Eric Dickerson*	1986	26	RAM	404	1821	4.51	11	Y	Y
18	Arian Foster	2012	26	HOU	351	1424	4.06	15	N	N
19	Barry Foster	1992	24	PIT	390	1690	4.33	11	N	N
20	Eddie George	1997	24	TEN	357	1399	3.92	6	N	N
21	Eddie George	2000	27	TEN	403	1509	3.74	14	Y	N
22	Ahman Green	2003	26	GNB	355	1883	5.3	15	Y	Y
23	Edgerrin James	2005	27	IND	360	1506	4.18	13	Y	N
24	Edgerrin James	1999	21	IND	369	1553	4.21	13	Y	Y
25	Edgerrin James	2000	22	IND	387	1709	4.42	13	N	N
26	Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	358	2006	5.6	14	Y	Y
27	Larry Johnson	2006	27	KAN	416	1789	4.3	17	N	N
28	Rudi Johnson	2004	25	CIN	361	1454	4.03	12	Y	Y
29	Jamal Lewis	2003	24	BAL	387	2066	5.34	14	Y	N
30	Curtis Martin*	1999	26	NYJ	367	1464	3.99	5	Y	N
31	Curtis Martin*	1995	22	NWE	368	1487	4.04	14	Y	Y
32	Curtis Martin*	1998	25	NYJ	369	1287	3.49	8	Y	Y
33	Curtis Martin*	2004	31	NYJ	371	1697	4.57	12	N	N
34	Deuce McAllister	2003	25	NOR	351	1641	4.68	8	Y	N
35	DeMarco Murray	2014	26	DAL	392	1845	4.71	13	?	?
36	Christian Okoye	1989	28	KAN	370	1480	4	12	N	N
37	Walter Payton*	1979	25	CHI	369	1610	4.36	14	Y	N
38	Walter Payton*	1984	30	CHI	381	1684	4.42	11	Y	Y
39	Adrian Peterson	2008	23	MIN	363	1760	4.85	10	Y	Y
40	Clinton Portis	2005	24	WAS	352	1516	4.31	11	N	N
41	John Riggins*	1983	34	WAS	375	1347	3.59	24	Y	Y
42	Gerald Riggs	1984	24	ATL	353	1486	4.21	13	Y	Y
43	Gerald Riggs	1985	25	ATL	397	1719	4.33	10	Y	Y
44	George Rogers	1981	23	NOR	378	1674	4.43	13	N	N
45	Emmitt Smith*	1991	22	DAL	365	1563	4.28	12	Y	Y
46	Emmitt Smith*	1994	25	DAL	368	1484	4.03	21	Y	Y
47	Emmitt Smith*	1992	23	DAL	373	1713	4.59	18	Y	Y
48	Emmitt Smith*	1995	26	DAL	377	1773	4.7	25	Y	Y
49	Thurman Thomas*	1993	27	BUF	355	1315	3.7	6	Y	N
50	LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	23	SDG	372	1683	4.52	14	Y	Y
51	Michael Turner	2008	26	ATL	376	1699	4.52	17	N	N
52	Herschel Walker	1988	26	DAL	361	1514	4.19	5	N	N
53	Ricky Watters	1996	27	PHI	353	1411	4	13	Y	N
54	James Wilder	1985	27	TAM	365	1300	3.56	10	N	N
55	James Wilder	1984	26	TAM	407	1544	3.79	13	Y	Y
56	Ricky Williams	2002	25	MIA	383	1853	4.84	16	N	N
57	Ricky Williams	2003	26	MIA	392	1372	3.5	9	Y	Y
		TOTAL:							35	26
									62.50%	46.43%

 

Although there are a lot of notes I wish I could add to this table if i had the space to, about 29 of these 57 players had a 320+ carry season at least once before their 350+ carry year, some directly preceding it. Walter Peyton already had 7 by the time they hit their second season of 350+ carries.

Out of 57 recorded seasons of 350+ carries, 35 of those (62.5%) managed to reach 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns the following year, translated to fantasy terms that's an RB2 season. 26 players (46.4%) managed to break 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns, basically an RB1 year and potentially a top 5 scorer. Those numbers in a vacuum might seem low, or high, or maybe they're meaningless.

So let's compare them to the last 5 years of RB data. We're going to look at every RB in the last 5 years that's taken over 200+ carries and what percentage of those players managed to have 1000/5 (yes, one touchdown fewer than my original requirement) and 1200/8.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2009

Rk		Year	Age	Tm	Att	Yds	TD	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?
1	Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	358	2006	14	Y	Y
2	Thomas Jones	2009	31	NYJ	331	1402	14	N	N
3	Steven Jackson	2009	26	STL	324	1416	4	Y	N
4	Adrian Peterson	2009	24	MIN	314	1383	18	Y	Y
5	Maurice Jones-Drew	2009	24	JAX	312	1391	15	Y	N
6	Cedric Benson	2009	27	CIN	301	1251	6	Y	N
7	Ryan Grant	2009	27	GNB	282	1253	11	N	N
8	Matt Forte	2009	24	CHI	258	929	4	Y	N
9	Ray Rice	2009	22	BAL	254	1339	7	Y	N
10	Knowshon Moreno	2009	22	DEN	247	947	7	N	N
11	Rashard Mendenhall	2009	22	PIT	242	1108	7	Y	Y
12	Ricky Williams	2009	32	MIA	241	1121	11	N	N
13	Fred Jackson	2009	28	BUF	237	1062	2	Y	N
14	Frank Gore	2009	26	SFO	229	1120	10	N	N
15	Brandon Jacobs	2009	27	NYG	224	835	5	N	N
16	LaDainian Tomlinson	2009	30	SDG	223	730	12	Y	N
17	Jonathan Stewart	2009	22	CAR	221	1133	10	N	N
18	Joseph Addai	2009	26	IND	219	828	10	N	N
19	Kevin Smith	2009	23	DET	217	747	4	N	N
20	DeAngelo Williams	2009	26	CAR	216	1117	7	N	N
21	Marion Barber	2009	26	DAL	214	932	7	N	N
22	Cadillac Williams	2009	27	TAM	211	823	4	N	N	250+ Only	250+ Only
								10	3	7	2
								45.45%	13.64%	77.78%	22.22%

 

Immediately we see that backs with 200+ carries in 2009 had a significantly lower success rate at reaching either milestone of 1000/5 and 1200/8. Meanwhile, backs with 250+ were a lot more successful at the former. This is a trend we're going to see continue.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2010

Rk		Year	Age	Tm	Att	Yds	TD	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?
1	Michael Turner	2010		ATL	334	1371	12	Y	Y
2	Steven Jackson	2010		STL	330	1241	6	Y	N
3	Arian Foster	2010		HOU	327	1616	16	Y	Y
4	Rashard Mendenhall	2010		PIT	324	1273	13	Y	N
5	Cedric Benson	2010		CIN	321	1111	7	Y	N
6	Chris Johnson	2010	25	TEN	316	1364	11	N	N
7	Ray Rice	2010		BAL	307	1220	5	Y	Y
8	Maurice Jones-Drew	2010		JAX	299	1324	5	Y	Y
9	Adrian Peterson	2010		MIN	283	1298	12	Y	N
10	Ahmad Bradshaw	2010	24	NYG	276	1235	8	N	N
11	Peyton Hillis	2010		CLE	270	1177	11	N	N
12	Thomas Jones	2010		KAN	245	896	6	N	N
13	Matt Forte	2010		CHI	237	1069	6	N	N
14	Jamaal Charles	2010		KAN	230	1467	5	N	N
15	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2010	25	NWE	229	1008	13	N	N
16	Darren McFadden	2010		OAK	223	1157	7	N	N
17	Fred Jackson	2010		BUF	222	927	5	Y	N
18	LaDainian Tomlinson	2010		NYJ	219	914	6	N	N
19	LeSean McCoy	2010		PHI	207	1080	7	Y	Y
20	Frank Gore	2010		SFO	203	853	3	Y	Y
					Rushing
Rk		Year		Tm	Att	Yds	TD
21	Marshawn Lynch	2010		2TM	202	737	6	Y	Y
22	LeGarrette Blount	2010		TAM	201	1007	6	N	N
23	Ronnie Brown	2010		MIA	200	734	5	N	N	250+ Only	250+ Only
								12	7	8	4
								52.17%	30.43%	72.73%	36.36%

 

The 2010 year was a lot better than 2009 at having players who managed to reach those numbers. But it still didn't have the same percentage of players hit the 1200/8 milestone as the 350+ carry group.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2011

Rk		Year	Age	Tm	Att	Yds	TD	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?
1	Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	26	JAX	343	1606	8	N	N
2	Michael Turner	2011	29	ATL	301	1340	11	N	N
3	Ray Rice	2011	24	BAL	291	1364	12	Y	Y
4	Marshawn Lynch	2011	25	SEA	285	1204	12	Y	Y
5	Frank Gore	2011	28	SFO	282	1211	8	Y	Y
6	Arian Foster	2011	25	HOU	278	1224	10	Y	Y
7	Cedric Benson	2011	29	CIN	273	1067	6	N	N
8	LeSean McCoy	2011	23	PHI	273	1309	17	N	N
9	Chris Johnson	2011	26	TEN	262	1047	4	Y	N
10	Steven Jackson	2011	28	STL	260	1145	5	N	N
11	Michael Bush	2011	27	OAK	256	977	7	Y	N
12	Shonn Greene	2011	26	NYJ	253	1054	6	Y	N
13	Willis McGahee	2011	30	DEN	249	1199	4	N	N
14	Beanie Wells	2011	23	ARI	245	1047	10	N	N
15	Rashard Mendenhall	2011	24	PIT	228	928	9	N	N
16	Ryan Mathews	2011	24	SDG	222	1091	6	N	N
17	Reggie Bush	2011	26	MIA	216	1086	6	Y	N
18	Adrian Peterson	2011	26	MIN	208	970	12	Y	Y
19	Matt Forte	2011	26	CHI	203	997	3	Y	N	250+ Only	250+ Only
								10	5	7	4
								52.63%	26.32%	58.33%	33.33%

 

In 2011 we saw a drop across the board, essentially. The 250+ group for the first time falls below the 350+ group for beating 1000/5 (even though the 350+ group had the milestone set at 6 touchdowns).

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2012

Rk		Year	Age	Tm	Att	Yds	TD	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?
1	Arian Foster	2012	26	HOU	351	1424	15	N	N
2	Adrian Peterson	2012	27	MIN	348	2097	12	Y	Y
3	Alfred Morris	2012	24	WAS	335	1613	13	Y	Y
4	Doug Martin	2012	23	TAM	319	1454	11	N	N
5	Marshawn Lynch	2012	26	SEA	315	1590	11	Y	Y
6	Stevan Ridley	2012	23	NWE	290	1263	12	N	N
7	Jamaal Charles	2012	26	KAN	285	1509	5	Y	Y
8	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2012	27	CIN	278	1094	6	N	N
9	Shonn Greene	2012	27	NYJ	276	1063	8	N	N
10	Chris Johnson	2012	27	TEN	276	1243	6	Y	N
11	Trent Richardson	2012	22	CLE	267	950	11	N	N
12	Frank Gore	2012	29	SFO	258	1214	8	Y	N
13	Steven Jackson	2012	29	STL	258	1045	4	N	N
14	Ray Rice	2012	25	BAL	257	1143	9	N	N
15	Matt Forte	2012	27	CHI	248	1094	5	Y	Y
16	Reggie Bush	2012	27	MIA	227	986	6	N	N
17	Michael Turner	2012	30	ATL	222	800	10	N	N
18	Ahmad Bradshaw	2012	26	NYG	221	1015	6	N	N
19	Darren McFadden	2012	25	OAK	216	707	2	N	N
20	Mikel Leshoure	2012	22	DET	215	798	9	N	N
					Rushing
Rk		Year	Age	Tm	Att	Yds	TD
21	Vick Ballard	2012	22	IND	211	814	2	N	N
22	C.J. Spiller	2012	25	BUF	207	1244	6	N	N
23	LeSean McCoy	2012	24	PHI	200	840	2	Y	Y	250+ Only	250+ Only
								8	6	6	4
								34.78%	26.09%	42.86%	28.57%

 

Now we reach 2012, where the ability to hit the milestones the following year get worse yet again. Every number falls under the 350+ group.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2013

Rk		Year	Age	Tm	Att ▾	Yds	TD	1000/5 Following Year?	1200/8 Following Year?
1	LeSean McCoy	2013	25	PHI	314	1607	9	Y	N
2	Marshawn Lynch	2013	27	SEA	301	1257	12	Y	Y
3	Matt Forte	2013	28	CHI	289	1339	9	Y	N
4	Ryan Mathews	2013	26	SDG	285	1255	6	N	N
5	Eddie Lacy	2013	23	GNB	284	1178	11	Y	Y
6	Chris Johnson	2013	28	TEN	279	1077	6	N	N
7	Adrian Peterson	2013	28	MIN	279	1266	10	N	N
8	Frank Gore	2013	30	SFO	276	1128	9	N	N
9	Alfred Morris	2013	25	WAS	276	1275	7	Y	N
10	Jamaal Charles	2013	27	KAN	259	1287	12	Y	N
11	Zac Stacy	2013	22	STL	250	973	7	N	N
12	Le'Veon Bell	2013	21	PIT	244	860	8	Y	Y
13	Knowshon Moreno	2013	26	DEN	241	1038	10	N	N
14	Maurice Jones-Drew	2013	28	JAX	234	803	5	N	N
15	Reggie Bush	2013	28	DET	223	1006	4	N	N
16	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2013	28	CIN	220	756	7	N	N
17	Rashard Mendenhall	2013	26	ARI	217	687	8	N	N
18	DeMarco Murray	2013	25	DAL	217	1121	9	Y	Y
19	Ray Rice	2013	26	BAL	214	660	4	N	N
20	Fred Jackson	2013	32	BUF	206	890	9	N	N
21	C.J. Spiller	2013	26	BUF	202	933	2	N	N
22	DeAngelo Williams	2013	30	CAR	201	843	3	N	N	250+ Only	250+ Only
								8	4	6	2
								36.36%	18.18%	54.55%	18.18%

 

Finally, 2013 again fell under the 350+ carry group for those milestones. So let's put together a conclusion to this.

200+ Carries Reaching 1000/5 Following Year	200+ Carries Reaching 1200/8 Following Year	250+ Carries Reaching 1000/5 Following Year	250+ Carries Reaching 1200/8 Following Year	350+ Carries Reaching 1000/6 Following Year	350+ Carries Reaching 1200/8 Following Year
44.04%	22.94%	59.65%	28.07%	62.50%	46.43%

 

That's right. Players who have seen 350+ carries have a higher chance than both 200+ and 250+ to reach 1000/6 and 1200/8.

If the only reason you have to avoid a running back this year or any year in the future is their previous workload, this should help put that argument to rest.

 

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