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Running Backs with 350+ Carries, the Myth Surrounding Them, and the Lies.

One of the ideas that's been in the minds of impressionable fantasy owners for who-knows-how-long is that running backs have a breaking point after a certain amount of carries. It's a tiring argument that stems from some very high profile cases including Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Shaun Alexander, who all managed to hit the big 350+ and then fall off the earth the following year.

Except when they didn't. Shaun Alexander hit 350 carries in 2004 with a monster stat line of 1696 yards with 16 touchdowns and followed it up with an even bigger fantasy record setting year in 2005 with 370 carries, 1880 yards and 27 touchdowns. Following 2005, Shaun Alexanders career ended.

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Terrell Davis had 369 carries in 1997 and put up 1750 yards with 15 touchdowns, encoring that performance in 1998 with 392 carries for 2008 yards and 21 touchdowns. In 1999, Davis career would be over after an ACL tear early in the year, an injury that's never been associated with contact or usage.

Clinton Portis had 352 carries in 2005 carrying a tune of 1516 yards and 11 touchdowns. In the preseason of 2006, Portis would injure his shoulder making a tackle after a turnover and then suffer an injury to his hand in the regular season- two injuries that would keep him sidelined for most of his following season.

Since 1970, there have been 56 cases of a RB hitting 350+ carries. Normally, this myth stays dormant until a player reaches the 350 number and it rises it's ugly head again, and that's exactly what happened last year. DeMarco Murray hit 392 carries in 2014 and becomes the only player on that list currently without a conclusion.

Let's take a look at the other seasons.

 

Running Backs With Over 350 Carries All Time

Rk Year Age Tm Att Yds Y/A TD >1000, 6 Next year >1200, 8 Next Year
1 Shaun Alexander 2004 27 SEA 353 1696 4.8 16 Y Y
2 Shaun Alexander 2005 28 SEA 370 1880 5.08 27 N N
3 Marcus Allen* 1985 25 RAI 380 1759 4.63 11 N N
4 Jamal Anderson 1998 26 ATL 410 1846 4.5 14 N N
5 Tiki Barber 2005 30 NYG 357 1860 5.21 9 Y N
6 Jerome Bettis* 2000 28 PIT 355 1341 3.78 8 N N
7 Jerome Bettis* 1997 25 PIT 375 1665 4.44 7 N N
8 Earl Campbell* 1981 26 HOU 361 1376 3.81 10 N N
9 Earl Campbell* 1979 24 HOU 368 1697 4.61 19 Y Y
10 Earl Campbell* 1980 25 HOU 373 1934 5.18 13 Y Y
11 Stephen Davis 2001 27 WAS 356 1432 4.02 5 N N
12 Terrell Davis 1997 25 DEN 369 1750 4.74 15 Y Y
13 Terrell Davis 1998 26 DEN 392 2008 5.12 21 N N
14 Eric Dickerson* 1984 24 RAM 379 2105 5.55 14 Y Y
15 Eric Dickerson* 1988 28 IND 388 1659 4.28 14 Y Y
16 Eric Dickerson* 1983 23 RAM 390 1808 4.64 18 Y Y
17 Eric Dickerson* 1986 26 RAM 404 1821 4.51 11 Y Y
18 Arian Foster 2012 26 HOU 351 1424 4.06 15 N N
19 Barry Foster 1992 24 PIT 390 1690 4.33 11 N N
20 Eddie George 1997 24 TEN 357 1399 3.92 6 N N
21 Eddie George 2000 27 TEN 403 1509 3.74 14 Y N
22 Ahman Green 2003 26 GNB 355 1883 5.3 15 Y Y
23 Edgerrin James 2005 27 IND 360 1506 4.18 13 Y N
24 Edgerrin James 1999 21 IND 369 1553 4.21 13 Y Y
25 Edgerrin James 2000 22 IND 387 1709 4.42 13 N N
26 Chris Johnson 2009 24 TEN 358 2006 5.6 14 Y Y
27 Larry Johnson 2006 27 KAN 416 1789 4.3 17 N N
28 Rudi Johnson 2004 25 CIN 361 1454 4.03 12 Y Y
29 Jamal Lewis 2003 24 BAL 387 2066 5.34 14 Y N
30 Curtis Martin* 1999 26 NYJ 367 1464 3.99 5 Y N
31 Curtis Martin* 1995 22 NWE 368 1487 4.04 14 Y Y
32 Curtis Martin* 1998 25 NYJ 369 1287 3.49 8 Y Y
33 Curtis Martin* 2004 31 NYJ 371 1697 4.57 12 N N
34 Deuce McAllister 2003 25 NOR 351 1641 4.68 8 Y N
35 DeMarco Murray 2014 26 DAL 392 1845 4.71 13 ? ?
36 Christian Okoye 1989 28 KAN 370 1480 4 12 N N
37 Walter Payton* 1979 25 CHI 369 1610 4.36 14 Y N
38 Walter Payton* 1984 30 CHI 381 1684 4.42 11 Y Y
39 Adrian Peterson 2008 23 MIN 363 1760 4.85 10 Y Y
40 Clinton Portis 2005 24 WAS 352 1516 4.31 11 N N
41 John Riggins* 1983 34 WAS 375 1347 3.59 24 Y Y
42 Gerald Riggs 1984 24 ATL 353 1486 4.21 13 Y Y
43 Gerald Riggs 1985 25 ATL 397 1719 4.33 10 Y Y
44 George Rogers 1981 23 NOR 378 1674 4.43 13 N N
45 Emmitt Smith* 1991 22 DAL 365 1563 4.28 12 Y Y
46 Emmitt Smith* 1994 25 DAL 368 1484 4.03 21 Y Y
47 Emmitt Smith* 1992 23 DAL 373 1713 4.59 18 Y Y
48 Emmitt Smith* 1995 26 DAL 377 1773 4.7 25 Y Y
49 Thurman Thomas* 1993 27 BUF 355 1315 3.7 6 Y N
50 LaDainian Tomlinson 2002 23 SDG 372 1683 4.52 14 Y Y
51 Michael Turner 2008 26 ATL 376 1699 4.52 17 N N
52 Herschel Walker 1988 26 DAL 361 1514 4.19 5 N N
53 Ricky Watters 1996 27 PHI 353 1411 4 13 Y N
54 James Wilder 1985 27 TAM 365 1300 3.56 10 N N
55 James Wilder 1984 26 TAM 407 1544 3.79 13 Y Y
56 Ricky Williams 2002 25 MIA 383 1853 4.84 16 N N
57 Ricky Williams 2003 26 MIA 392 1372 3.5 9 Y Y
TOTAL: 35 26
62.50% 46.43%

 

Although there are a lot of notes I wish I could add to this table if i had the space to, about 29 of these 57 players had a 320+ carry season at least once before their 350+ carry year, some directly preceding it. Walter Peyton already had 7 by the time they hit their second season of 350+ carries.

Out of 57 recorded seasons of 350+ carries, 35 of those (62.5%) managed to reach 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns the following year, translated to fantasy terms that's an RB2 season. 26 players (46.4%) managed to break 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns, basically an RB1 year and potentially a top 5 scorer. Those numbers in a vacuum might seem low, or high, or maybe they're meaningless.

So let's compare them to the last 5 years of RB data. We're going to look at every RB in the last 5 years that's taken over 200+ carries and what percentage of those players managed to have 1000/5 (yes, one touchdown fewer than my original requirement) and 1200/8.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2009

Rk Year Age Tm Att Yds TD 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year? 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year?
1 Chris Johnson 2009 24 TEN 358 2006 14 Y Y
2 Thomas Jones 2009 31 NYJ 331 1402 14 N N
3 Steven Jackson 2009 26 STL 324 1416 4 Y N
4 Adrian Peterson 2009 24 MIN 314 1383 18 Y Y
5 Maurice Jones-Drew 2009 24 JAX 312 1391 15 Y N
6 Cedric Benson 2009 27 CIN 301 1251 6 Y N
7 Ryan Grant 2009 27 GNB 282 1253 11 N N
8 Matt Forte 2009 24 CHI 258 929 4 Y N
9 Ray Rice 2009 22 BAL 254 1339 7 Y N
10 Knowshon Moreno 2009 22 DEN 247 947 7 N N
11 Rashard Mendenhall 2009 22 PIT 242 1108 7 Y Y
12 Ricky Williams 2009 32 MIA 241 1121 11 N N
13 Fred Jackson 2009 28 BUF 237 1062 2 Y N
14 Frank Gore 2009 26 SFO 229 1120 10 N N
15 Brandon Jacobs 2009 27 NYG 224 835 5 N N
16 LaDainian Tomlinson 2009 30 SDG 223 730 12 Y N
17 Jonathan Stewart 2009 22 CAR 221 1133 10 N N
18 Joseph Addai 2009 26 IND 219 828 10 N N
19 Kevin Smith 2009 23 DET 217 747 4 N N
20 DeAngelo Williams 2009 26 CAR 216 1117 7 N N
21 Marion Barber 2009 26 DAL 214 932 7 N N
22 Cadillac Williams 2009 27 TAM 211 823 4 N N 250+ Only 250+ Only
10 3 7 2
45.45% 13.64% 77.78% 22.22%

 

Immediately we see that backs with 200+ carries in 2009 had a significantly lower success rate at reaching either milestone of 1000/5 and 1200/8. Meanwhile, backs with 250+ were a lot more successful at the former. This is a trend we're going to see continue.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2010

Rk Year Age Tm Att Yds TD 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year? 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year?
1 Michael Turner 2010 ATL 334 1371 12 Y Y
2 Steven Jackson 2010 STL 330 1241 6 Y N
3 Arian Foster 2010 HOU 327 1616 16 Y Y
4 Rashard Mendenhall 2010 PIT 324 1273 13 Y N
5 Cedric Benson 2010 CIN 321 1111 7 Y N
6 Chris Johnson 2010 25 TEN 316 1364 11 N N
7 Ray Rice 2010 BAL 307 1220 5 Y Y
8 Maurice Jones-Drew 2010 JAX 299 1324 5 Y Y
9 Adrian Peterson 2010 MIN 283 1298 12 Y N
10 Ahmad Bradshaw 2010 24 NYG 276 1235 8 N N
11 Peyton Hillis 2010 CLE 270 1177 11 N N
12 Thomas Jones 2010 KAN 245 896 6 N N
13 Matt Forte 2010 CHI 237 1069 6 N N
14 Jamaal Charles 2010 KAN 230 1467 5 N N
15 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2010 25 NWE 229 1008 13 N N
16 Darren McFadden 2010 OAK 223 1157 7 N N
17 Fred Jackson 2010 BUF 222 927 5 Y N
18 LaDainian Tomlinson 2010 NYJ 219 914 6 N N
19 LeSean McCoy 2010 PHI 207 1080 7 Y Y
20 Frank Gore 2010 SFO 203 853 3 Y Y
Rushing
Rk Year Tm Att Yds TD
21 Marshawn Lynch 2010 2TM 202 737 6 Y Y
22 LeGarrette Blount 2010 TAM 201 1007 6 N N
23 Ronnie Brown 2010 MIA 200 734 5 N N 250+ Only 250+ Only
12 7 8 4
52.17% 30.43% 72.73% 36.36%

 

The 2010 year was a lot better than 2009 at having players who managed to reach those numbers. But it still didn't have the same percentage of players hit the 1200/8 milestone as the 350+ carry group.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2011

Rk Year Age Tm Att Yds TD 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year? 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year?
1 Maurice Jones-Drew 2011 26 JAX 343 1606 8 N N
2 Michael Turner 2011 29 ATL 301 1340 11 N N
3 Ray Rice 2011 24 BAL 291 1364 12 Y Y
4 Marshawn Lynch 2011 25 SEA 285 1204 12 Y Y
5 Frank Gore 2011 28 SFO 282 1211 8 Y Y
6 Arian Foster 2011 25 HOU 278 1224 10 Y Y
7 Cedric Benson 2011 29 CIN 273 1067 6 N N
8 LeSean McCoy 2011 23 PHI 273 1309 17 N N
9 Chris Johnson 2011 26 TEN 262 1047 4 Y N
10 Steven Jackson 2011 28 STL 260 1145 5 N N
11 Michael Bush 2011 27 OAK 256 977 7 Y N
12 Shonn Greene 2011 26 NYJ 253 1054 6 Y N
13 Willis McGahee 2011 30 DEN 249 1199 4 N N
14 Beanie Wells 2011 23 ARI 245 1047 10 N N
15 Rashard Mendenhall 2011 24 PIT 228 928 9 N N
16 Ryan Mathews 2011 24 SDG 222 1091 6 N N
17 Reggie Bush 2011 26 MIA 216 1086 6 Y N
18 Adrian Peterson 2011 26 MIN 208 970 12 Y Y
19 Matt Forte 2011 26 CHI 203 997 3 Y N 250+ Only 250+ Only
10 5 7 4
52.63% 26.32% 58.33% 33.33%

 

In 2011 we saw a drop across the board, essentially. The 250+ group for the first time falls below the 350+ group for beating 1000/5 (even though the 350+ group had the milestone set at 6 touchdowns).

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2012

Rk Year Age Tm Att Yds TD 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year? 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year?
1 Arian Foster 2012 26 HOU 351 1424 15 N N
2 Adrian Peterson 2012 27 MIN 348 2097 12 Y Y
3 Alfred Morris 2012 24 WAS 335 1613 13 Y Y
4 Doug Martin 2012 23 TAM 319 1454 11 N N
5 Marshawn Lynch 2012 26 SEA 315 1590 11 Y Y
6 Stevan Ridley 2012 23 NWE 290 1263 12 N N
7 Jamaal Charles 2012 26 KAN 285 1509 5 Y Y
8 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2012 27 CIN 278 1094 6 N N
9 Shonn Greene 2012 27 NYJ 276 1063 8 N N
10 Chris Johnson 2012 27 TEN 276 1243 6 Y N
11 Trent Richardson 2012 22 CLE 267 950 11 N N
12 Frank Gore 2012 29 SFO 258 1214 8 Y N
13 Steven Jackson 2012 29 STL 258 1045 4 N N
14 Ray Rice 2012 25 BAL 257 1143 9 N N
15 Matt Forte 2012 27 CHI 248 1094 5 Y Y
16 Reggie Bush 2012 27 MIA 227 986 6 N N
17 Michael Turner 2012 30 ATL 222 800 10 N N
18 Ahmad Bradshaw 2012 26 NYG 221 1015 6 N N
19 Darren McFadden 2012 25 OAK 216 707 2 N N
20 Mikel Leshoure 2012 22 DET 215 798 9 N N
Rushing
Rk Year Age Tm Att Yds TD
21 Vick Ballard 2012 22 IND 211 814 2 N N
22 C.J. Spiller 2012 25 BUF 207 1244 6 N N
23 LeSean McCoy 2012 24 PHI 200 840 2 Y Y 250+ Only 250+ Only
8 6 6 4
34.78% 26.09% 42.86% 28.57%

 

Now we reach 2012, where the ability to hit the milestones the following year get worse yet again. Every number falls under the 350+ group.

 

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2013

Rk Year Age Tm Att ▾ Yds TD 1000/5 Following Year? 1200/8 Following Year?
1 LeSean McCoy 2013 25 PHI 314 1607 9 Y N
2 Marshawn Lynch 2013 27 SEA 301 1257 12 Y Y
3 Matt Forte 2013 28 CHI 289 1339 9 Y N
4 Ryan Mathews 2013 26 SDG 285 1255 6 N N
5 Eddie Lacy 2013 23 GNB 284 1178 11 Y Y
6 Chris Johnson 2013 28 TEN 279 1077 6 N N
7 Adrian Peterson 2013 28 MIN 279 1266 10 N N
8 Frank Gore 2013 30 SFO 276 1128 9 N N
9 Alfred Morris 2013 25 WAS 276 1275 7 Y N
10 Jamaal Charles 2013 27 KAN 259 1287 12 Y N
11 Zac Stacy 2013 22 STL 250 973 7 N N
12 Le'Veon Bell 2013 21 PIT 244 860 8 Y Y
13 Knowshon Moreno 2013 26 DEN 241 1038 10 N N
14 Maurice Jones-Drew 2013 28 JAX 234 803 5 N N
15 Reggie Bush 2013 28 DET 223 1006 4 N N
16 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2013 28 CIN 220 756 7 N N
17 Rashard Mendenhall 2013 26 ARI 217 687 8 N N
18 DeMarco Murray 2013 25 DAL 217 1121 9 Y Y
19 Ray Rice 2013 26 BAL 214 660 4 N N
20 Fred Jackson 2013 32 BUF 206 890 9 N N
21 C.J. Spiller 2013 26 BUF 202 933 2 N N
22 DeAngelo Williams 2013 30 CAR 201 843 3 N N 250+ Only 250+ Only
8 4 6 2
36.36% 18.18% 54.55% 18.18%

 

Finally, 2013 again fell under the 350+ carry group for those milestones. So let's put together a conclusion to this.

200+ Carries Reaching 1000/5 Following Year 200+ Carries Reaching 1200/8 Following Year 250+ Carries Reaching 1000/5 Following Year 250+ Carries Reaching 1200/8 Following Year 350+ Carries Reaching 1000/6 Following Year 350+ Carries Reaching 1200/8 Following Year
44.04% 22.94% 59.65% 28.07% 62.50% 46.43%

 

That's right. Players who have seen 350+ carries have a higher chance than both 200+ and 250+ to reach 1000/6 and 1200/8.

If the only reason you have to avoid a running back this year or any year in the future is their previous workload, this should help put that argument to rest.

 

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Free agent wide receiver Marquise Brown is one of the more explosive players in the NFL. The veteran wide receiver ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at his Pro Day coming out of Oklahoma. He was a first-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft. Brown has spent most of his career as... Read More


Nico Collins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings For 2024 Best Ball Leagues (Tiers 4-9)

We have now entered the process of free agency, which is providing pathways for some wide receivers to seize significant roles in their new landing spots. The player movement that has ensued will also decrease the stock of other receivers whose roles will decrease within their reshaped depth charts. Participation in the best ball draft... Read More


Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2024 Best Ball Tight End Sleepers

Top tight ends such as Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are bound to put up quality fantasy football numbers weekly, but most tight ends are unpredictable. The top tier of tight ends are reliable for fantasy football purposes, but most tight ends are boom-or-bust type of players. Even though it is hard to hit on... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

D'Andre Swift Signs With Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Newly signed Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift has been one of the most promising, but also underperforming running backs across the NFL and the fantasy landscape in recent years. After three injury-riddled seasons in Detroit where he showed flashes of greatness but didn't quite live up to the hype, Swift was traded to the... Read More


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Top 50 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings After the 2024 NFL Combine

With the NFL Combine in our rearview mirror, now is a logical time to put out an up-to-date rankings for this year’s NFL Draft. Below, you will find my top-50 players who have declared for this NFL Draft. Below those ranks, you will also find several fantasy-relevant notes I have on this class, and on... Read More


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Calvin Ridley Signs With Titans: Fantasy Football Impact

The Tennessee Titans made a huge move once NFL free agency officially opened. They signed wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract with $50 million fully guaranteed. Ridley was the top receiver on the open market. The Titans swooped in out of left field and signed him to give second-year quarterback Will... Read More