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Remember back when Carlos Hyde was going to usurp Frank Gore as the 49ers starting running back in 2014? Remember even further back when Kendall Hunter was mentioned in that regard before Hyde even showed up? Well, you would think that since Gore is out of the picture entirely this backfield would be a lot more clear-cut. Sadly, that isn't the case, as Hyde, Hunter, and now Reggie Bush comprise a cluttered San Francisco backfield.
The second Frank Gore became a free agent in the offseason, everyone began flocking to Hyde as the automatic starter. Then the 49ers signed Reggie Bush, a head-scratcher of a move to say the least. Let's take a look at how the team ran the ball in 2014 shall we? Believe it or not, Frank Gore finished the year with the ninth most rushing yards in the league at 1,106. That's a hefty amount for a guy many have counted out in each of the last three seasons. If a 31-year-old running back can put up RB2 numbers with ease, surely a younger starter can do even better, right? Not quite.
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Even if you were to take the team's 470 rushing attempts from 2014 (again, the ninth most in the league), there's just no way you can automatically assume Carlos Hyde will get the most touches by a significant margin with both Kendall Hunter and Reggie Bush on the roster. The 49ers even drafted a running back in the fourth round, one Mike Davis out of the University of South Carolina. That gives you four backs who will all eat into each other's workload.
The most likely scenario in this backfield is that Hyde does receive the most carries, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than one might think. Kendall Hunter has had health concerns throughout his career, missing the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL. Prior to that injury, Hunter had 112, 72, and 78 rushing attempts in his first three seasons. He's clearly been important to the offense, albeit in a small capacity. It's not like the San Francisco 49ers brought in a new scheme under new head coach Jim Tomsula and offensive coordinator Geep Chryst either: both coaches were promoted from within. If anything, Chryst's reputation as the team's quarterback's coach might favor the passing game more than the ground attack. If this "new regime" is going to lean more on the pass (which I believe it will), then that might actually favor...sigh, Reggie Bush.
I don't hate Reggie Bush, I don't even dislike him--but he does frustrate me. I've wanted to buy into his talent both as a player and a fantasy star for years, yet even during his brightest moments he's always seemed to disappoint. The move to San Francisco was pretty much met with a confused shrug by most until a report that he had been running with the first team offense surfaced. Apparently, Hyde had suffered some sort of leg injury and Bush was given the first crack with the starters. Not a firm sign of how carries will be split, but it's something nonetheless.
Just last year this team had 255 rush attempts from Gore, 104 from QB Colin Kaepernick, and 83 from Carlos Hyde. Those two running backs (Gore and Hyde) combined for a total of just 23 receptions. Reggie Bush has always primarily been a pass-catching back, never dipping below 35 catches in a season in which he's played at least 10 games. With that and a presumably more pass-friendly offense in mind, I think Bush is going to eat into this workload a lot more than most initially thought. I don't expect Bush to get any significant amount of carries, but I do think he limits Hyde's upside much in the same way Kendall Hunter does.
So all that's left is to figure out where to draft all these guys for fantasy purposes. Carlos Hyde has been ranked as high as a middle of the pack RB2, which is crazy to me. The competition on his own team alone is enough for me to lower him, let alone the fact that guys like Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Stewart and now-Colt Frank Gore have clearer paths to high-end RB2 status. You'd basically have to draft Hyde as your RB2 in round four, and if that's the case I' would pass on him entirely. It's not that I don't like the player, it's the combination of value and situation.
If I'm going to advocate owning just one San Francisco running back this season it's Reggie Bush. His draft value has dropped so far that he could be a bona fide steal, especially if you're in a PPR league. Hyde will definitely end up as the "starter", but the backfield's fantasy values are skewed such that Reggie Bush is the better pick in a re-draft league.
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