RADIO
Daily Divide: Week Eleven DFS Picks
Nathan and Matt each offer Week 11 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make their own decisions. The key to success last week was pretty much ignoring every play analysts recommended, and this article was no exception. Process over results, though, and hopefully this week is kinder to all of us.
Nathan: I played Kirk Cousins in half of my DFS lineups and somehow had my worst week of the season. Whatever Matt wrote in the intro is fine. Too sick to look, shaking my head.
You can follow the titling Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff -- and the equally tilting Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle. Matt: Neither of us deserve the victory lap after last week.
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Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Eleven
QB: Cam Newton vs WAS
. Cam Newton is good. Oh, I can’t just put that, I actually have to write something. Washington has had a solid defense so far this season, but they have been pretty susceptible to the run, allowing the highest YPC in the NFL at 5.0 and the 4th most rushing yards. Normally rushing stats aren’t the first thing to list off when recommending a quarterback, but Cam is Cam and the Panthers are tied for the 2nd highest favorites of the weekend at 7.5 with an implied team total of 26. I think this will be a textbook Panthers game with Newton and Jonathan Stewart dominating the run game and solid defense from Carolina helping keep the ball in the hands of the offense which means more shots at the end zone, which means more fantasy points for Newton.
Stacking: The Cam/Olsen stack is always in play. Devin Funchess in a GPP, if you're looking for a contrarian play.
Matt: I’m totes down.
RB: Danny Woodhead vs KCC
This certainly isn’t the first time this season that Matt or I has recommended the great Danny Woodhead, and for good reason. He has been PPR gold all year, according to James Simpson’s Searching For Consistent Greatness series at Dynasty League Football, Woodhead has 4 RB1 performances in 9 games, tied for 3rd among running backs. Combined with 3 other RB2 performances, he has been a top 24 back in 7 of 9 games. Despite all this scoring, he is still priced as a mid-low RB2 on most sites. Woodhead does most of his damage in the passing game and he faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed 17 receiving touchdowns so far this season, tied for 6th worst in the league. The Chargers offense has seen its fair share of injuries lately and you don’t often see a passing game run through a running back, but I think that is the case right now for Woodhead and the Chargers.
Matt: You could probably play Woodhead every single week in cash, really. It’s just about what other RBs you’re targeting or not.
WR: Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at DET
While people contemplate all week which of the two Raiders wide receivers is the play for DFS this week, I think that the answer is both. Both Cooper and Crabtree have been really good this season, both providing a consistent floor and this week they face a Lions defense that has not been very good, allowing 28 points in 4 of the their last 5 games. This game is tied for the highest over/under of the week at 49.5 and the Raiders have an implied total of 24.75. I’m mixing up my plays between the two of them, but if I have to choose one, I’m going with the slightly cheaper option in Crabtree who has provided a steady floor of 9+ PPR points in every game since week 4.
Stacking: Derek Carr is my favorite QB not named Cam Newton this week. Even better matchup for him than the wide receivers.
Matt: I almost wrote up Carr on my side of the Divide. I love Carr and the entire Oakland passing game this weekend. My only issue here, however, is that you listed both WRs/ They have finished together as top 24 WRs (only) three times this season. Maybe this week will be the fourth time, or maybe you’re left holding the bag on the wrong guy. But in multiple lineup entry, I like your style here for sure.
TE: Rob Gronkowski vs BUF
With Edelman out for the foreseeable future, many are projecting his targets and production to go to Danny Amendola and to some extent, Brandon Lafell. While I do think both will benefit, I think Tom Brady will target Rob Gronkowski early and often, especially in the red zone where Edelman had scored 7 times so far this season. The Buffalo defense has been decent against tight ends, allowing the 8th fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but they haven’t been decent against Gronkowski as he put up 24.30 PPR points in week 2 this season. Play Gronk and log out.
Stacking: The Tom Brady/Gronk stack is okay, but you really have to go cheap at RB/WR to fit them both in. I think it is an either/or week for Brady/Gronk.
Matt: I’m fading Brady at his price in cash until we see how he works without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman. But I’m all about the Gronk life this weekend.
Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Eleven
QB: Matthew Stafford vs OAK
It’s weird to recommend playing fantasy’s current QB28 in cash games, but Matthew Stafford’s game splits tell a tale of two cities. It was the worst of times against tough secondaries. His worst four outings coming against his toughest four DVOA passing matchups. Against DEN, SEA, ARI, and KCC (all top eleven in DVOA against the pass) he combined for a miserable 3:7 TD to INT ratio. It was the best of pretty good times against his remaining opponents, throwing for multiple touchdowns in each of his five remaining games. His 33.9 Week 6 fantasy point explosion aside, he has finished right around or just under the QB1 level in each of these games. His lowest mark coming in Week one, still less than three points shy of being QB12. So when the matchup hasn’t been prohibitive, Stafford has at least offered a nice floor. This weekend he faces the softest matchup he has had to date. (Oakland is ranked 20th in passing DVOA, and are allowing the eighth most fantasy points to opposing QBs.) He also gets to play at home. It’s hard to trust in his upside (Week 6 is his only week above QB11), but there should be a decent enough floor to keep you competitive. If you want to fit in some studs at skill positions, Stafford may help.
Stacking: Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron both make intriguing plays this weekend, but I’m not sure I’m brave enough to stack two Detroit players in cash. (Maybe Ebron, just because of the price.) Golden Tate makes a really nice tourney stack, and went under-owned in the TNF slate Fanduel GPPs.
Nathan: Stafford has a nice matchup for sure, but I just think that he may be bad enough at football that isn’t a viable DFS option. I do like Ebron as a play against the Raiders if you are looking to get exposure to the Lions offense this week.
RB: Charcando West at SDC
I can’t recall who I saw coin “Charcando” but I’m stealing it. Two main points here. Firstly, this is one of the highest usage backs of late playing against the most generous defense to opposing fantasy RBs. (Charcandrick West has seen 25-27 touches in each of the last three weeks and the Chargers rank dead last in fantasy points surrendered to opposing RBs.) Secondly, Charcando has been really really good with his touches, combining for 129, 122, and 167 yards from scrimmage and at least a TD in each of his last three. The Chiefs are favored to win, but Charcando’s passing game usage should keep him involved either way. If the first point were my only point, I’d still play him this weekend. The second point (and his 167 yard, 2 TD outing last week) ensures his cash game usage will be very high this weekend. He will be in every lineup I make, along with everybody else’s, I am sure.
Nathan: Hard to find a good reason not to play Charcandrick everywhere this week, I completely agree with this play.
WR: Mike Evans at PHI
Mike Evans is set to play his fourth consecutive game without fellow wideout Vincent Jackson, and has seen lots of targets and success as the only substantive passing game contributor in Tampa Bay right now. (RB Charles Sims maybe aside.) His last two outings were monstrous 8-126 and 8-152 lines, and he had a 8-164-1 line just four weeks. The Atlanta game three weeks ago got away from Tampa Bay a bit, but he has otherwise seen no fewer than 12 targets per game with V Jax sidelined, and the touchdowns should come at some point. (Just one TD so far on the season.) This weekend Evans faces off against one of the most generous fantasy matchups for WRs. We’re on year two now of “play big WRs against PHI” and the strategy continues to play dividends.
Stacking:Just one Buc is enough for my cash game teams.
Nathan: Now you are speaking my language, Matty. Good player + great matchup + targets galore = good DFS play. I love Mike Evans like I would a child. Granted, Mike Evans is a month older than me, so I guess it is more of a half-brother thing where dad was busy for a couple of months.
Matt: After reading that I’m not sure it isn’t closer to one of those step-sibling porn-esque situations, where you have confusing feelings and keep reminding yourself there’s no blood relation.
TE: Jordan Reed at CAR
Again, my tight end plan is simple. When I’ve followed it, it’s been highly successful. Just play Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, or Gronk. Honestly, in a really difficult tight end slate in Week 11, I’m probably just paying up for Gronk this weekend. That said, Reed makes a play as a floor/volume play, where the savings is significant to your lineup goals. The matchup isn’t ideal, so I’m unsure about his ceiling, but the targets will be there as always.
Stacking: One week after a nice game versus the 32nd ranked DVOA unit versus the pass, Cousins gets the second ranked DVOA unit, on the road. #NahWave
Nathan: This isn’t Gronk or Ebron, so it isn’t correct. Try again next time.
Matt: I actually do like Ebron this weekend, but didn’t want to stray from my “Reed, Walker, or Gronk” thought one week after writing it.
Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like
Nathan likes: Derek Carr, (Tony Romo is minimum price on OwnThePlay), Darren McFadden (check status), Lamar Miller , Eric Decker, Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Eric Ebron.
Matt likes: Derek Carr, Devonta Freeman, Chicago RBs, LaGarrette Blount, Eric Decker, OAK WRs, Julio Jones, Gronk, Eric Ebron.
