RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers for Week 26, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them for your lineups. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts).

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Contact Rate Risers

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT): 77% Season Contact Rate, 87% L7 Contact Rate (+10%)

To put it mildly, Andrew McCutchen has had a disappointing 2016. He’s been a bust of a first round pick, and it certainly seems like the days of McCutchen as a top fantasy player are officially over. However, recently he’s started making more contact – is he going to put up numbers in the season’s final week?

Better late than never, right? Along with a contact rate increase, McCutchen has produced some serious results. Over the last week, he’s hitting .370/.433/.667 to go along with one homer, three doubles, one triple, three runs scored, and three RBI. Now that’s the Andrew McCutchen we all know and love. He’s hitting the ball hard (43.5% hard hit ball rate) and striking a ton of line drives (30.4% line drive rate) during the span of his contact rate jump. If your fantasy season goes to the very end (or you’re in your championship game), get McCutchen back in your lineup.

Logan Forsythe (2B, KC): 79% Season Contact Rate, 89% L7 Contact Rate (+10%)

For the second consecutive season, Logan Forsythe is putting up legitimate numbers from the second base position for the Kansas City Royals – proving his 2015 was no fluke. As of late, his contact rate has been even better as he’s seen a jump to 89%. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like that will coincide with a hot streak over the season’s final week.

Forsythe has only hit to the tune of .172/.226/.345 over the last seven days despite making more contact, though he has hit a homer and scored five runs since then. He’s generally a pretty consistent line drive hitter with a 23.4% figure for the year, but recently those have turned into fly balls as he’s watched his fly ball rate spike from 35.3% to 47.1% while making more contact. He may be getting his bat on the ball more, but nothing really indicates he’s going to win you any trophies this week.

David Dahl (OF, COL): 72% Season Contact Rate, 89% L7 Contact Rate (+17%)

Since being called up to the majors in late July, David Dahl has provided a solid boost for fantasy owners. With a .315/.357/.500 slash line to go along with seven longballs, 31 runs scored, 23 RBI and five stolen bases, he’s contributed to your bottom line across the board. It’s no secret his big downfall is his high strikeout rate (24.4%). With an increase in contact, should we expect Dahl to tear it up here at season’s end?

It certainly seems that way. His strikeout rate isn’t down by much (21.5%); neither is his swinging strike rate (14.8% for the season vs. 12.7% over the last week). But even a slight decrease in strikeouts can provide a massive boost for a player with Dahl’s talent. He’s hitting the ball very hard (40% hard hit ball rate) and that’s led to a home run, three runs scored and three RBI over the last seven days. If you’ve kept Dahl on your bench during his September struggles, now is the time to get him back in your lineup.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Aledmys Diaz (SS, STL): 84% Season Contact Rate, 64% L7 Contact Rate (-20%)

After starting the season red hot, Aledmys Diaz had fantasy owners wondering if he was for real or not. Since then, injuries and underperformance still have owners wondering who the real Diaz is. He’s lost playing time, and to make matters worse, he isn’t making the most of when he does play. A slipping contact rate indicates we shouldn't expect much better as the end of the year draws near.

While Diaz has watched his contact rate dip from 84% to 64% over the last week, he’s watched his production plummet as well. It’s a bit of a mixed bag as he’s only hitting .200, but the one homer he’s hit over that span has his slugging percentage at a misleading .467. However, his soft contact rate is up to an unsightly 50%, and during his contact rate decrease he isn’t had a single line drive (with a ground ball rate of 80%). He’s not finishing the year strong, and he shouldn’t be in your lineup for the regular season's final days.

Martin Prado (3B, MIA): 91% Season Contact Rate, 80% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)

Another year, another solid season for Martin Prado. He’s getting older, but that hasn’t stopped him from producing at his usual reliable rate. Does a decrease in contact rate over the last week mean that reliability should be thrown out the window during the final week of the regular season?

The results aren’t there, but the underlying stats say they should be. He’s slashing a meager .150/.190/.250 over the last seven days, and hasn't put up much by way of counting stats. However, he’s hitting the ball extremely hard (47.1%) with a 35.3% line drive rate, so he’s definitely seeing the ball well despite making less contact. A .176 BABIP is a better explanation for his struggles than a decrease in contact. He’s tough to recommend putting in your lineup given there’s only a week left in the regular season and the results aren’t lacking, but if you’re feeling bold you could be rewarded big time.

Brandon Moss (1B/OF, STL): 67% Season Contact Rate, 53% L7 Contact Rate (-14%)

Just like many other players in the past who have gone to St. Louis, Brandon Moss is enjoying a career resurgence as a Cardinal. His 27 home runs are three short of a career-high, and several other statistics are the best he’s put up in years. Unfortunately for fantasy owners who have reaped the benefits of Moss’ jump back to relevance this year, it looks like he’s going cold over the season’s final week.

Moss has seen a lot more than just his contact rate drop over the last seven days. His slash line? .000/.095/.000. You read that right. There’s not much more to add than that, but we’ll try. When he does make contact, he’s not putting the ball anywhere near where he normally does – he owns a 46% pull rate for the season, but has only done so 30.8% of the time during his contact rate decrease. He’s also not going to the opposite field nearly as much (22.3% for the season vs. 15.4% over the last week). You may have been enjoying the return of Brandon Moss all year long, but that ride looks to have officially come to end for 2016.

 

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