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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
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Contact Rate Risers
Melvin Upton Jr. (OF, TOR): 68% Season Contact Rate, 82% L7 Contact Rate (+14%)
After struggling for much of the last three seasons, Upton has surprisingly bounced back with a strong 2016 campaign. However, he’s had his fair share of issues since being dealt to Toronto at the trade deadline. Recently, his contact rate has been on the rise– does a contact rate increase mean better things are on the way?
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Upton may be making more contact, but isn’t making good contact at that. In fact, his batting average despite the contact rate increase sits at an inexplicable .000. He’s either keeping the ball on the ground (50% round ball rate) or in the air (50% fly ball rate), and hasn’t been able to hit any line drives. Even with the increase, Upton is still striking out 25% of the time. Call it bad luck or whatever you will, but the results aren’t there for Upton. Keep him on your bench until he heats up.
Ian Kinsler (2B, DET): 85% Season Contact Rate, 96% L7 Contact Rate (+11%)
In his third year as a Tiger, Kinsler has quietly put together one of the most productive seasons of his career. This season marks the first time since 2011 the second basemen has eclipsed 25 home runs, and could hit 30 before this campaign is in the books. Are owners who have enjoyed the spoils this season going to enjoy September even more?
Unlike Melvin Upton Jr. above, Kinsler is making more contact and taking advantage of it. Since his contact rate has increased, Kinsler has put up a .458/.536/.750 slash line to go along with two home runs, five runs scored, and six RBI. Of course, his BABIP is an ungodly .450 over that time span, but his strikeouts are also down 59% as well. He’s also hitting line drives at a 36.4% rate recently too. Kinsler is simply seeing the ball very well right now, and you should absolutely be buying in on his contact rate surge - meaning great results for at least the next few days.
Didi Gregorious (SS, NYY): 83% Season Contact Rate, 96% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
Coming off an underwhelming first season as Derek Jeter’s replacement in the Bronx, Gregorious has bounced back nicely in 2016. Never a hitter that hits for an incredibly high contact rate (his range has been 79.1% - 79.5% over the last three years), 2016 has seen a career-best 83.3% figure from the young shortstop. With a 96% rate over the last week, is Didi a September sleeper for fantasy teams?
Unfortunately, probably not. He may be swinging and missing a lot less recently, but he’s not doing much else either. Gregorious’ hard hit ball rate the last week or so sits at a paltry 9.1%, with a line drive rate of only 13.6%. He’s not necessarily seeing the ball better either, as he hasn’t walked at all despite whiffing less. All this, and he owns a .227/.250/.318 slash line during his contact rate surge. Given that his contact rate has increased despite the lack of any other positive results, he’s a player to keep an eye on in the event he starts to show any further signs of progress. For now, however, an increase in contact rate doesn’t mean anything.
Contact Rate Fallers
Brian Dozier (2B, MIN): 80% Season Contact Rate, 71% L7 Contact Rate (-9%)
Over the last two seasons, Dozier’s contact rate has slipped in comparison to his first three, yet he has consistently remained one of the top producing second basemen in baseball. Recently, his contact rate has dipped even further - should owners be concerned he’s about to slump as the fantasy playoffs are among us?
Ummmm....no! Have you been paying attention to Dozier at all recently? His contact rate may have slipped as of late, but over that time he owns a .367/.441/.900 slash line. He also has five home runs, six runs scored, nine RBI, and two stolen bases as well. Does that sound like a man whose contact rate decrease you should be worried about? For a player who doesn’t make a living off being a contact player alone, 71% isn’t a drastically decreased rate to worry about so long as he keeps hitting the ball hard (47.4%). Dozier is on a tear, and needs to be in your lineup as you hopefully cruise to a fantasy championship.
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX): 81% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contact Rate (-18%)
Mazara has enjoyed a very successful rookie season in the big leagues, showing good contact rate skills while putting forth a .274/.326/.419 slash line. It shouldn’t be surprising as Mazara has been a very good player in the minors the last four years, but this kind of production right away can never be truly expected. Despite the overall level of triumph, however, is Mazara hitting a rookie slump at a time when fantasy owners need him most?
His contact rate may have taken a massive dip the last week, but the underlying numbers do not seem to indicate the rookie is hitting a wall. Yes, Mazara is only hitting .174 the past week with a .200 OBP. Look a little deeper though, and it doesn’t seem as concerning. Mazara’s 35.7% hard hit ball rate is better than his figure for the season (28.8%), and he’s hitting more line drives as well (28.6% vs 23.3% for the season). The young outfielder’s struggles may be a product of luck as well, where his .231 BABIP over the last week isn’t doing him any favors. That’s not to say you absolutely must keep him in your lineup right now – but you also shouldn’t be down on Mazara just because of the contact rate decrease. With those underlying peripherals, he could heat up any moment.
Aaron Judge (OF, NYY): 60% Season Contact Rate, 51% L7 Contact Rate (-9%)
Unlike Mazara, Judge might be running straight into that big brick rookie wall. When Judge got the call to the majors on August 13th, he found immediate success by notching multiple hits in three of his first five games. Since then, however, pitchers have adjusted and he...well, hasn’t.
Judge’s 60% season contact rate would already be the worst number in all of baseball among qualifiers (Chris Carter is at 65%), so you can imagine how terrible a 51% contact rate is. With his drop from worst-in-baseball contact rate to an even bigger nightmare over the last week, Judge has watched his slash rate fall to .105/.150/.263. He does have one longball during that span though, which is the only reason his slugging percentage is above .200. Judge has all the tools to be a highly productive Major Leaguer – 2016 just isn’t the time. Hold onto him in dynasty leagues obviously, but for those teams that have a shot at their fantasy title: don’t play Judge in your lineup expecting any rookie magic.
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