RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)

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Contact Rate Risers

Evan Longoria (3B, TB): 76% Season Contact Rate, 93% L7 Contact Rate (+17%)

Longoria is in the midst of a resurgence this season for the Rays. There’s a decent chance he eclipses his previous single-season high mark in homers, and should finish with his best overall numbers since 2013. Does his recent contact surge mean even better things are on the way?

It certainly seems that way. While his season contact rate isn’t bad by any stretch, it would actually be his lowest since 2009. Given that all his other numbers are up, it would make sense for Longoria to experience some positive regression in that department. Furthermore, his results over the last week speak for themselves: .333/.385/.708 slash line to go along with two homers, a double, a triple, five runs scored and six RBI. Buy in on Longoria for the stretch run.

Corey Dickerson (OF, TB): 74% Season Contact Rate, 90% L7 Contact Rate (+16%)

Another name, another Ray. Dickerson isn’t having the worst season ever, but it’s certainly not what fantasy owners were hoping for. His HR/FB rate, 13.8% would be his lowest since 2012 and his batting average would be a career-worst. Are better things ahead with his contact rate increasing lately?

Much like his teammate above, it looks like good things are on the way for Dickerson. His current contact rate would be his career-low by 2.6%; at age 27 we shouldn’t be seeing such a decline. Much of his struggles are due to his .260 BABIP (his career-low was previously .307), including his .228 batting average. Over the last seven days, his BABIP sits at .385 to go along with a .375/.444/.750 slash line. Dickerson is heating up as he makes more contact; he should be a nice contributor as the fantasy season winds down.

Victor Martinez (DH, DET): 85% Season Contact Rate, 94% L7 Contact Rate (+9%)

After an injury-plagued 2015, Martinez has had a nice bounce back season. He may not be the V-Mart of old, but he’s producing at a healthy rate with a .297/.350/.488 slash line. Does his increase in contact recently mean he’s about to produce even more?

Probably not. Despite the increase in contact, Martinez isn’t seeing a ton of results. He does have a double and two homers over the past week, but the positives may be isolated as he’s actually only hitting .250 with zero walks over that time frame. He’s certainly worth watching to see if this increased contact turns starts turning into base hits more often, but for now you shouldn’t expect a hot streak coming up.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Travis Shaw (1B, 3B, BOS): 77% Season Contact Rate, 61% L7 Contract Rate (-16%)

On the verge of finishing his first full season at the Major League level, Travis Shaw is proving to be a relatively productive player. His numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he does contribute across a variety of categories. However, does his recent decrease in contact rate mean a slump is on the way?

Shaw certainly isn’t looking good at the moment. Despite a .250 BABIP (which isn’t high by any means, but should probably be lower based on his other statistics) the last week, Shaw is only hitting .154/.389/.231. He also owns a 16.7% swinging strike rate and 27.8% strikeout rate over that span. His line drive rate over this span is also a low 12.5%. Shaw simply isn’t seeing the ball right now and shouldn’t be in your lineup until he turns it around.

Lonnie Chisenhall (OF, CLE): 83% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contact Rate (-20%)

Lonnie Chisenhall is in the midst of a good season from a slash line perspective (.297/.340/.469), but the counting stats haven’t been there for him. For those of you that have held onto Chisenhall on your bench, now could be the time to cut ties for someone who can help you the rest of the season.

Chisenhall has seen success with his averages this season due to a high .340 BABIP (.303 for his career). He’s actually been putting up some numbers during his contact rate decrease the last week, but don’t be fooled. His BABIP over that span is a crazy high .500, which in turn has led to a .375/.375/.813 slash line recently. His swinging strike rate is also an awful 24.6% the past week; for the season it’s only 9.6%. Now is the time to cut bait with Chisenhall as we enter the stretch run of the fantasy season.

Ryan Braun (OF, MIL): 81% Season Contact Rate, 69% L7 Contact Rate (-12%)

Quietly, Ryan Braun is having his best season since 2012. He seems well past his 30-40 home run days, but he has still been a ridiculously productive power-speed threat with 22 homers and 13 steals. As someone who has carried fantasy teams all year, should owners be concerned about his contact rate slip when he’s needed most?

Braun is going through a bit of a down phase at the moment, but he’s likely to turn it around soon. He’s swinging at more pitches outside the zone (40% in 2016 vs. 35.5% for the season) and making less contact on them (69.3% in 2016 vs. 64.3% for the season). Given that he’s swinging at pitches he doesn’t normally swing at, he’s probably making worse contact (when he does make contact) as well, leading to .176 BABIP over this span (.340 for the season). Hitters like Braun don’t stay in these funks for long; he just needs to get his eyes right and stop swinging at pitches he hasn’t been swinging at all season long. His BABIP is bound to rise, and when it does, so will his production. Remain confident in Braun.

 

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