RADIO
This is one of the most exciting times in the baseball season, especially if your team is in the hunt. Trades are fun to speculate about, but they can change the fantasy landscape even more dramatically than the real world in which they take place. So, who to cover in an article like this?
Tulo is the most obvious choice, but I looked at him earlier this year and promised myself that I would not do repeats. Jose Reyes was in the same deal, but I'm not sure he stays in Colorado so discussing him seems premature. After the Carlos Gomez to New York fiasco, I do not want to do anything that has not been completely confirmed - Latos, Hamels, and Alex Wood are out. The more minor moves are better covered by Rotoballer's waiver wire tool, which you should be using if you're not. That leaves two rent-an-arms and a utility man. Yay?
Ben Zobrist (OF/2B, KC)
I think every team in the league was linked to Zobrist at some point, but the Royals ponied up in the end. Despite the near universal desire, Zobrist has underwhelming fantasy stats in 2015 - .268/.354/.447 with six bombs and a steal. His 12.2% walk rate is excellent, while his 9.6% K rate is elite - he is a real asset in OBP leagues as a result. If walks aren't a stat, however, you'll likely be frustrated by his 34.8% swing rate - his approach lends itself to nothing but walks.
Walks would be okay if he still stole 20 bags, but with just one bag (in two attempts) two-thirds through the season, the speed looks gone. People may argue that Oakland doesn't run while the Royals do, but KC is running less this season and no one has stopped Billy Burns yet. I wouldn't bet on a speed rebound. Power upside doesn't seem to be in the cards either, as his 9.1% HR/FB is a tick below average while his career high GB% of 50.2% leaves little room for error in that regard. Kauffman Stadium won't help either.
That leaves average as the remaining fantasy stat, and his .277 BABIP is south of his career mark of .292. His LD% is just 18.5%, but a below league average career rate of 19.3% suggests that it is not going much higher. This, combined with declining wheels, may mean that the reduced BABIP should be seen as the new normal. Zobrist also has stark platoon splits despite switch hitting, posting a paltry .242 average against RHP this season. He kills lefties at a .321 clip, but there are more RHPs in the game.
Finally, the Royals intend to use him incorrectly, at least from a fantasy perspective. He is apparently slated for outfield duty until Alex Gordon returns, at which point he will shift to second base. Gordon's current fill-in is a platoon of the left-handed Jarrod Dyson (99 wRC+) and right-handed Paulo Orlando (88 wRC+). Both offer SB upside for fantasy purposes, with Dyson on the good side of a platoon a potentially better version of Billy Hamilton. Second baseman Omar Infante has a wRC+ of 51 and offers no upside to anyone.
Defensively, Zobrist has disappointed at both positions this season by UZR/150, but has a history of quality glovework at both spots. Dyson has an elite 31.1 UZR/150 in the outfield this year, and Orlando is no slouch either at 14.6. Infante is all right at 6.9 UZR/150, but the Royals are better offensively and defensively with Zobrist in the infield. For combining lackluster fantasy numbers and limiting Dyson's playing time, Zobrist is clearly a fantasy chump. He is simply one of those guys that is better in the real game than ours.
Verdict: Chump
Scott Kazmir (SP, HOU)
The reinforcement for the surprising Houston rotation, Kazmir has performed like an ace this season with a 6-5 record and 2.24 ERA. That distinction is questioned, however, by his 3.62 xFIP. The discrepancy is the result of an extremely low 6.3% HR/FB, favorable even after taking Kazmir's career 9% rate into consideration. Kazmir has played primarily in pitcher's parks throughout his career, which may have suppressed his career rate. Now he is moving to Minute Maid Park, where the ball flies out everywhere except dead center. Between his luck to date, his new address, and his lack of an elite groundball rate, Kazmir could start allowing an obscene number of big flies.
Kazmir's 8.02 K/9 is merely adequate for fantasy purposes, while his walk rate of 2.78 BB/9 is mediocre. A changeup serves as his put away pitch, and looks really good by whiff rate (21%) and chase rate (47.8%). However, the pitch is only in the zone 34.1% of the time. As opponents adjust to the Astros lefty, they may simply start taking the pitch instead of hacking at it. Since Kazmir was traded within the division, this adjustment may have already begun to take place.
Outside of the change, Kazmir's best K pitch is an average slider with a 13% SwStr% and 34.8% O-Swing%. The offering allows a BABIP of .346, however, so Kazmir has been experimenting with a cutter and sinker to replace it. The results have not been good, as they have allowed BABIPs of .409 and .375, respectively. The sinker has been completely useless, with a dreadful 6.3% whiff rate and an inability to generate groundballs (37.5%).
The cutter shows some promise with a 10% SwStr%, 35.9% chase rate, and strong 63.6% groundball rate. However, its use is almost exclusively at the expense of the slider, which offers the only other above average grounder rate in Kazmir's repertoire (56.4%). A more grounder driven approach would behoove Kazmir in his new park, but he does not seem to have the weapons to do it.
Kazmir's strand rate of 78.3% seems high for an arm that lacks elite strikeouts, while his BABIP against of .254 also seems too low. Much of his success this year has come from using Oakland's Coliseum to his advantage (2.30 FIP at home, 4.08 on the road), and that is no longer an option for him. Houston may think it rented an ace, but he seems more like a 3 or high end 4 to me. He can be rostered in fantasy, but keep expectations in check. He is not an ace.
Verdict: Chump
Johnny Cueto (SP, KC)
Probably the biggest name that everyone expected to be moved at the deadline, the Royals were again the high bidder for his services. The trade immediately improves Cueto's supporting cast, as he upgrades from a mediocre Reds squad to the best team in the American League. This should allow him to improve on his to date numbers of 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA.
Cueto's luck stats seem fluky, but he has a history of maintaining favorable luck. His BABIP against is just .234, but it has been under .240 three years running and Kansas City's elite defense will help him maintain it, especially after Alex Gordon returns. His 8.5% HR/FB seems lucky in Cincinnati, but maintaining it at Kauffman Stadium should be no problem. His strand rate is also higher than league average but on par with his career numbers.
From a fantasy perspective, Cueto's 8.27 K/9 are underwhelming for an ace while two walks per nine are merely okay. I'm not too concerned about the control, as he throws enough strikes to improve his walk rate. Like Kazmir, his best wipe out pitch is a changeup with a 20.6% whiff rate and 49% O-Swing%. Like Kazmir, nothing else in his repertoire really stands out in this regard, with a slider (10.7 SwStr%) the next best offering. Unlike Kazmir, Cueto has been traded to a new league. While facing a DH is less than ideal, Cueto's unorthodox delivery and stuff figures to confound hitters that do not have a great deal of experience facing him. This unfamiliarity should allow Cueto to maintain his elite production for the rest of the season.
At least he should have no problems in the regular season, as the postseason is something he's yet to master in 8.2 career IP. His career ERA in October is 5.19, and who could forget when Cincinnati's ace regressed into a batting practice pitcher because Pirates fans chanted his name? This makes the move puzzling for the Royals, who needed an arm more for October than August. Still, his regular season should be good and that is all most fantasy owners care about.
Verdict: Champ
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