RADIO
It seems like the season has just started, but in many ways we are well into it at this point. It is becoming increasingly necessary to focus on this year's production, leaving 2014 in the rear view mirror. This week we look at a Boston "outfielder", a Mets pitcher that might make more sense for AARP than MLB, and the only Athletic that got the memo Spring Training is over. Lets begin.
Hanley Ramirez, SS/OF, BOS
Full disclosure: I panned Ramirez in a preseason article, and I still believe I was right despite his 10 home runs to start the season. His one stolen base thus far should put to rest any idea he was going to contribute heavily in that area, and his .260 AVG isn't killing you, but it is not really helping either. All of Hanley's value is tied to his power production, and that seems extremely flukey.
Exactly how unsustainable his power production is is almost entertaining. His HR/FB sits at an astoundingly high 37%, well above his career norm or anyone else's for that matter. More tellingly, his bombs represent the entirety of his extra base hit output - Hanley has zero doubles and zero triples on the 2015 campaign. This is particularly odd in Fenway Park, which is a doubles factory. Many would say that Hanley's average is due for an uptick due to a .213 BABIP, but the disproportionate HR power (hit out of play and therefore not included in batting average on balls in play) actually suppresses it.
The BABIP will regress, but not through singles finding holes but rather harder hit balls not finding the other side of the fence, hitting the Green Monster for a double rather than leaving the yard. These doubles will be in play and raise Hanley's BABIP back up to respectability, but in so doing will decrease Hanley's value by denying him his current level of power production. Many leagues do not use doubles as a stat, and while doubles help in leagues that use slugging percentage the HR would still be worth more. The batting average will not see a notable uptick either, as all of the home runs count as hits as well. Since some of the would be doubles will find leather, he'll likely break even in terms of hit rate. Every hard hit ball will not be a bomb for an entire season, and the fact that they have been thus far is the only reason Hanley has been very good.
Most of my preseason concerns with Hanley remain as well. He has already missed time due to minor injuries and figures to continue to do so going forward. He is still a malcontent that now has to deal with playing a position he does not like for a last place team. His defensive performance has actually been so bad that it negates the WAR value of his power binge, chalking up -6 defensive runs saved on a pace for a UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating prorated to 150 games) of -53.4. That would be one of the worst performances in baseball history! He is going to start losing PAs to defensive replacements eventually at the end of games, hurting his counting numbers in the process. Overall, sell high if you can, as this high priced Boston acquisition is merely a...
Verdict: Chump
Bartolo Colon, SP, NYM
Proud owner of a 6-1 record and a 3.30 ERA, Colon is off to his best start since 1999. The fact that he was pitching in the majors in 1999 tells you how old he has to be (42 later this month), but advanced stats are actually buying him: his 3.17 FIP is actually a tick better than his ERA. This is due to an uptick in strikeouts, as his 7.77 K/9 is a full K better than last year's 6.72 figure. More advanced stats also justify the increased strikeouts, as overall contact % is down (87.9% to 85.2% so far this year), swinging strike rate is up (5.6% to 7.2%), and batters are chasing more of his junk offerings (O-Swing % up from 30.6% to 33.2%). These numbers are not those of a K artist, but a reasonably competent major league hurler. He's not an ace, but he can help a fantasy team, especially for his miniscule cost to acquire.
Of course, much of Colon's success can be traced to his having forgotten how to walk people. Colon's 0.19 BB/9 is crazy strong, and figures to increase at least somewhat. He is throwing more strikes (53.7% of the time compared to 49.7% last year), so there is some justification for a miniscule walk rate. Such a performance also has precedent in the 2014 version of Phil Hughes - if you waited for him to regress last season, you missed out on a good pitcher. Colon does not have elite stuff by any metric, but he may not need it. It is hard to hit in this environment, and Colon may be using this to his advantage - not walking anyone allows him to both post a strong WHIP (0.99) and save pitches to work deeper into games, racking up Wins.
Colon also passes all of the usual tests for overperforming pitchers. His strand rate is slightly elevated at 77%, but the figure is reasonably close to league average (72%). His line drive rate is normal at 20.9%. His BABIP against is .285, the lower end of average but still average. Such a BABIP is also supported by a flyball tendency - 41% of batted balls against Colon have been in the air, while only 38.1% have been on the ground. Since Mets centerfielder Juan Lagares catches everything while the team's infield defense has more holes than Swiss cheese, a flyball approach is likely for the best. The wins are flukey, but that is more of an indictment of the Mets than Colon. While Colon should apply for AARP membership, it appears that as a pitcher he is still a...
Verdict:Champ
Stephen Vogt, C, OAK
From minor league depth to a .337/.417/.653 triple slash line in the major leagues, Oakland's struggles are certainly not Vogt's fault. He has 8 HR on the season, surely the product of an inflated 24.2% HR/FB rate, but his minor league history suggests that he does have some power. Between AA and AAA, he hit 17 blasts in 2011. 9 in 396 AAA PAs followed in 2012, 13 in 2013, and nine in the majors a year ago. This suggests that while his current rate is unsustainable, he does have power that should continue to pop up during the year. It is not as though regression will somehow lead to negative HR output.
Perhaps more interesting is his batting average, fueled by a high .333 BABIP. While that may seem high for someone that runs like a catcher, he has a history of high minor league BABIPs as well. Consider his AAA BABIPs:
Year BABIP Average
2012 .306 .272
2013 .344 .324
2014 .372 .364
More granular data is not available for minor league seasons, but it is reasonable to assume that speed played little to no role in consistently high BABIPs throughout Vogt's minor league career. The other path to a sustainably high BABIP is a high line drive rate, which Vogt currently has at 24.1%. Normally, such a figure would be expected to regress, but the above indicates that a high liner rate may be one of Vogt's skills, in which case it would be repeatable. By batted ball type, all of Vogt's "luck" is on line drives (.233 BABIP on grounders, .080 on flies, .800 on liners), so maybe there is something about Vogt's liners that cause them to be more frequent and more productive than the average liner. Reliable Hit f/x data would be necessary to determine this for sure, but that does not exist yet. Still, the evidence seems to suggest that Vogt can keep hitting for an elite average.
Vogt's rate stats support a strong average as well. His strikeout rate is low at 14.8%, and he really knows how to take a walk at 12.2%. The walk rate is much higher than it was last season (5.6%), but the spike is justified by both a Swing % down from 41.3% to 36.7% and an O-Swing % down from 28% to 23.4%. He is also hitting balls out of the strike zone less frequently than he did a year ago (81.8% O-Contact % last year down to 69.4% this year) while maintaining elite contact rates in the zone (94.1%). He seems to be looking for his pitch and unwilling to accept any substitute - if he does not get what he wants he'll accept the walk. That is the approach of a .330 batting average, .400 OBP guy. With some pop in his bat as well, is it any wonder he plays for Billy Beane?
Verdict: Champ
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