Champs or Chumps: Lucas Duda, Sonny Gray, and Clay Buchholz

Nearly everyone now agrees that sabermetrics have a use both in MLB front offices and in the fantasy arena, but the extent of this belief still varies.

The Boston Red Sox have a league average starting rotation according to the advanced metrics, and are therefore still a popular postseason pick in some analytical circles. Their actual run prevention has been dreadful however, and you need to look at the bottom of the standings to find them.

Will they right the ship? Time will tell, but we'll have a mini version of that debate in discussing Sonny Gray, whom sabermetricians pegged for significant regression heading into this season, and Clay Buchholz, poster child for the belief that Boston is still good. Now that the entire intro is about pitching, lets start with a hitter.

 

Lucas Duda (OF, NYM)

Duda has largely disappointed his owners with a .272/.378/.490 triple slash line this season, mostly because they wanted last year's 30 bombs instead of this campaign's nine. Good news - Duda's flyball rate has declined this year but appears likely to increase. More flies and a sustainable 14.1% HR/FB will get Duda to his lofty power projection - or at least somewhere near it. Bad news - The good news lasted all of a sentence.

Duda's walk rate is down and trending downward over the last three seasons, going from 14.3% in 2013 to 11.6% last year to 10.9% this year. This would be okay if Ks were also down, but instead they are steady at 22.7% last year and this year. The trend gets worse if this year is broken into its component months, as April's solid 17.7% K rate jumped to 25.9% in May, while BB rate plummeted in the same time frame (13.5% to 8%). This is not a great indicator for batting average even if he is making more contact (74.9% last year to 79.1% this).

While .272 is hardly exciting, Duda has required a .329 BABIP to attain it - and he is not the type of player that can sustain that high of a BABIP. Indeed, he has posted a ridiculous 30.9% LD rate on the young season, a figure that is sure to regress more towards his career 22% norm. Actually this has already started, as a .387 BABIP in April fell to .323 in May. Some of those liners will turn into flies - hence the increased power projection above - but the average will likely fall into painful territory in the process.

Worst of all, nearly all of Duda's BABIP luck has come vs. LHP, seemingly indicating that he is a big league quality hitter against them despite a career .228 average against lefties. His .352 mark this year is sustained only by a .417 BABIP, 35% LD rate, and 23.5% HR/FB (10.3% career). All three figure to come down sooner rather than later, and when they do he'll stink against southpaws again. He looked good early though, so the Mets won't platoon him to save his rate stats. His counting stats won't be hurt by being platooned either, but will instead take a hit because he is the only thing even approaching a hitter on the current Mets roster. Ugh. He'll pop a few more dingers, but this Mets fan has no problem labeling Duda as a . . .

Verdict: Chump

 

Sonny Gray (SP, OAK)

Quite possibly the number one regression candidate heading into this season, everyone got the memo except Gray himself. Pitching to a 7-3 record and 1.74 ERA, he is making the preseason prognosticators look foolish. Sure his .249 BABIP looks unsustainably low, especially for a groundball pitcher (54.9% grounders) on a team with dreadful infield defense. His line drive rate (12.8%) also figures to regress to at least last year's 18.5% figure if not the league average 21% mark. Sure his strand rate of 84.6% seems high for a pitcher that was knocked at least partially for his lack of Ks (7.52 K/9 last year, 8.08 so far this year). Sure his 5.3% HR/FB indicates that more big flies are forthcoming. But it is not all bad news - strikeouts are up to a league average figure, while free passes are down (3.04 BB/9 to 2.25). That's something, right?

Gray's pitch selection has undergone a significant change this year. His slider usage is way up (8.3% to 18.3%), mostly at the expense of his curveball (27.6% to 14.3%). This is good news for Grays's strikeout rate, as the slider is the only pitch in Gray's six pitch mix with an above average whiff rate (26.2%, league average 9.6%). The pitch also offers an exciting O-Swing% of 54% (average is 30.5%). Sadly, his best pitch otherwise is the curve he is increasingly neglecting (8.7% whiff rate, 35.6% O-Swing%). While more sliders are good, having them at the expense of his weaker pitches would be better.

The decreased walks also seem to be something of a mirage, as Gray has issues throwing strikes with all of his pitches. Only his 2-seam fastball (53.2%) and curve (53%) are in the zone even half of the time, and only the slider gets chased out of the zone with any frequency. Nearly all of Gray's offerings excel at inducing grounders, but that may not be a good thing in Oakland's cavernous coliseum with Marcus Semien as the everyday shortstop. Overall, there are too many red flags here for me to buy into the 1.74 ERA or the 2.72 FIP.

Verdict: Chump

 

Clay Buchholz (SP, BOS)

Many would advise you to pay no attention to Buchholz's 3-6 record or 4.07 ERA, instead heeding the 2.91 FIP buried underneath it. His 9.12 K/9 this season are a massive improvement from last year's pathetic 6.97 total, and he has also managed to cut his walks down from 2.85 BB/9 last season to 2.47 this. His .335 BABIP against is pretty high and not supported by anything in his batted ball profile other than a fluky low IFFB% of 3.2% (career 8%). His LOB% (68.1%) should go up, not down, based on the uptick in K rate. Even his groundball rate is up (46.6% to 50.2%). These are the metrics that sabermetricians point to, and they are all in the Boston ace's favor.

Buchholz's stuff, however, makes me question if he is really good enough to sustain his current performance, luck notwithstanding. This year, Buchholz has changed up his pitch mix to include fewer four seamers (33.3% to 17.7%) and more two seamers (11.7% to 28.3%) and changeups (11.8% to 15.1%). The increased change usage probably explains the uptick in rate production, as it offers a strong 42.6% O-Swing% and 21.3% SwStr%. His second best offering is the cutter (15.3% SwStr%), and it would be nice to see it replace both of the mediocre fastballs. Buchholz also has a split that he uses rarely (1.5% usage), but proves effective when utilized (39.2% O-Swing%, 17.6% whiff career). Part of Buchholz's problem seems to be sub-optimal pitch selection.

Like Gray, Buchholz is also hard pressed to find the strike zone. Only the 2-seamer and cutter are in the zone a majority of the time, and they are both only barely so (51.2% and 51.8%, respectively). Likewise, the unfavorable BABIP is at least partially the result of the terrible defense behind him, as Hanley Ramirez has proven that standing in the outfield does not make one an outfielder, Pablo Sandoval has made a bunch of errors, and Dustin Pedroia has lost a step. I never cared for Boston's offseason from an offensive perspective either, making Ws hard to come by. I have more confidence in him than either of the players above, but this is the first time in the history of this column that all three featured players get the same verdict.

Verdict: Chump

 

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