I have power on my mind this week, in part because I have relocated to Denver, Colorado, known to all fantasy owners as a hitter's paradise.

Regardless of the reason, this week we look at the consensus #1 power hitter coming into the season, the final season of a Boston legend, and a 21 year old wunderkind in Arlington. Shall we begin?

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

Mazara is tough to get a read on because there is not a lot of reliable data on him. He only has 101 career PAs in Triple-A, and one full season at Double-A, split into chunks of 97 PAs in 2014 and 470 last year. At age 21, he doesn't have an extensive lower minors history either.

Despite his tender age, Mazara has planted himself firmly on the fantasy radar with a .320/.368/.490 line and 10 homers in 223 PAs. A strong 17% K% and solid 7.2% BB% suggest that he is anything but overmatched at the highest level. He plays in a fantastic hitter's park, and has recently been promoted to the third spot in the potent Texas lineup. Fantasy owners may think they have a steal.

I'm not sure Mazara can continue this pace, though. Prorated over a full season of PAs, Mazara is on a pace for around 30 HR. His minor league career high is 22 however, 19 of which came in A ball in 2014. His second best power season in the minors came last year, with 14 (13 at Double-A) in 558 PAs. These are not exactly indicators of an elite slugger.

His limited MLB time includes a FB% of just 30.5%, far shy of the 40% rate generally required for 30+ HR seasons. His power production to this point is rooted in a 19.6% HR/FB that is probably unsustainable, given his minor league track record. It is worth pointing out that Mazara is still young enough to improve rapidly, but it is usually safer not to rely on immediate growth with players this young. It doesn't always happen right away.

Mazara's batting average is buoyed by his strong K%, but he has also benefited from a .344 BABIP. The good fortune is rooted in an elevated LD% of 27.5%, almost certainly unsustainable for any hitter. While it is possible that Mazara will grow into a plus LD guy, it certainly should not be expected yet. He also has no minor league history of SB speed, for what that is worth.

Minor league batted ball distribution is not available to the public, but we can approximate it by looking at Mazara's minor league BABIPs. He has a few elevated BABIPs in his minor league career, but they are all attached to abbreviated seasons with a minuscule number of PAs.  In his three seasons with over 400 PAs at one level, his BABIPs were .301, .304, and .329 (Double-A last year). He probably didn't hit a ton of liners in putting up those numbers.

Should Mazara's hot start return to Earth, he may actually be at risk of losing playing time. Prince Fielder's name alone locks up the DH slot, while a returning Shin-Soo Choo is assured an OF slot. Jurickson Profar has looked MLB ready thus far, but Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Rougned Odor have firm holds on the positions he might play. Profar has some experience in the outfield, as does Mitch Moreland if they decide Profar is a better fit at 1B. Texas is deep, and it is not hard to fill out their lineup card without Mazara.

This analysis may sound harsh for a 21 year old, but the fantasy leagues I know do not award bonus points for rostering especially young players. Owners in keeper or dynasty formats should be all over Mazara, as his plate discipline numbers (7.9% SwStr%, 31.5% O-Swing%) would be above average for any major leaguer, let alone one barely of drinking age. He was also young for all of his minor league levels, his success indicating that he may be special. Mazara possesses at least some power, and his home park is legitimately great for offense. I'm calling him a chump for redraft leagues because a steep learning curve probably looms ahead of him, but there is plenty of long term potential here.

Verdict: Chump

 

David Ortiz (BOS)

In the interest of full disclosure, I must confess that Big Papi is my least favorite baseball player of all time. He failed a drug test in 2003, yet is somehow less of a pariah than Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Roger Clemens. The media loves him despite a sultry attitude, as evidenced by when he attacked the dugout wall with a bat, leaving his teammates to flee from the resulting splinters. I detest the idea of the DH, and Ortiz has become its personification.

With that out of the way, even I have to admit that his .338/.425/.728 triple slash line is excellent. The 16 dingers that come with it are pretty nice too, especially when they are supported by a robust 48.5% FB%. He is entrenched as the cleanup man of an elite lineup, ensuring plentiful counting stats. He appears to be having a career best season at age 40.

Except that career years at age 40 are supposed to be things of the past. Despite being the epitome of shift bait - he has three PAs all season without the shift on - Papi has a BABIP of .340 on the year. He is not beating the shift, as his .115 BABIP on ground balls attests. Instead, his flies (.302 BABIP against .172 career) and liners (.781 BABIP against .687 career) are overperforming to such a high degree that they are making up for the useless grounders and then some.

Plus line drives would not fit even into vintage Papi's profile. The owner of a career 20.3% LD%, Ortiz is one of those sluggers that maintained league average BABIPs with very few line drives in his prime. It spiked to 22.4% last season, but has returned to a more typical 19.6% rate this year.

The fly balls have a clear reason for increased productivity: an increased Pull%. Ortiz has always pulled more flies than most, but his current rate of 36.7% is beyond elite. The question arises - do we really want to buy into a significant change in physical ability or approach for a 40 year old superstar? I say nay, as it seems quite improbable unless PEDs have returned to the slugger's system.

Batted ball luck also seems to have played a role in Papi's performance to date. Over his storied career, Ortiz has been somewhat vulnerable to LHP: .263/.333/.477 with a .289 BABIP. This has not been the case this year, as Ortiz is slashing .306/.375/.583 with a .375 BABIP against southpaws in 2016. Nothing else in his vs. LHP profile has changed other than BABIP, so significant regression to his well established mean should be expected moving forward.

From a fantasy perspective, burning a roster spot on a player incapable of filling in at any position can be a significant opportunity cost in some leagues. Deeper leagues that limit or charge for transactions especially come to mind, as do daily leagues with no PA maximums that all but require a full roster every day. Owners with weekly transactions may become annoyed when Ortiz gets three straight off days during an interleague series, and various aches and pains should be expected to keep a 40 year old out of the lineup occasionally. He can be hard to count on even when going well.

Ortiz has a number of positive indicators in his profile this year, including an increased FB% (41% last year to 48.5% this), lower SwStr% (9.8% to 8.2%), and improved Z-Contact% (85.4% to 91.1%). All of these seem hard for a 40 year old to sustain, however. It is with great pleasure that I label Papi a chump, incredibly unlikely to sustain his current performance.

Verdict: Chump

 

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, MIA)

The MIA above could stand for Missing In Action, as everyone expected more from a healthy Stanton than his current .197/.305/.426 line with 12 big flies. The cause of his struggles is a glaring 35% K%. Stanton always struck out a lot, but 35% of the time is way too often. The change is supported by an uptick in SwStr% (15.2% last year to 17.1% this), leading some to hit the panic button.

It isn't as bad as it looks. Despite the increased SwStr%, Stanton's Z-Contact% is largely unchanged from last year's mark (78.7% last year, 78.3% this). The additional whiffs are almost exclusively at pitches outside of the zone (45.8% O-Contact% last year, 34% this), and Stanton still has the plus eye (29.3% O-Swing%) necessary to avoid swinging at garbage most of the time. In fact, his current 13.1% BB% is significantly higher than last season's 10.7% rate. If Stanton hits the bad balls he's been whiffing at, they are probably weak pop ups or ground balls anyway. Swinging and missing might be preferable.

Stanton's average is also being suppressed by a .247 BABIP. While he is not a line drive guy (18.5% career LD%), his current 13.8% mark is probably due for an uptick. Positive regression is almost certainly forthcoming. The few liners he has hit are also underperforming, falling short of Stanton's career line drive BABIP by 35 points (.733 vs. .768).

Stanton's BABIP has also been hindered by the shift this year, as he is hitting .232 against it vs. .296 when it is not on. Predictably, this is seen most often in his ground balls (.213 BABIP this year, .284 career), but it is worth noting that it isn't completely ruining him. .213 is still a lot better than Papi's .115, for example. The shift might hinder Stanton somewhat moving forward, but his true talent BABIP should still be far higher than its current level.

Stanton's calling card has always been power, and it remains in place. His FB% (44.9% last year, 43.1% this) and HR/FB (25.5% this year, 25.8% career) are both in keeping with his career norms. He continues to pull his fly balls at an above average rate (29.8% vs. 29.5% career), and has even cut his IFFB% to a career best 8.5%. Normally, fewer infield flies would lead to a higher BABIP, not a lower one.

Finally, Stanton's reputation makes him a virtual certainty to maintain his cleanup slot and the counting stats that go with it, regardless of how many players break out around him. Oddly, the column's only Champ tag goes to the player with by far the worst numbers to date. Go figure.

Verdict: Champ

 

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