Who's #1? Early Look at Picking First Overall

With the off-season fully underway and early drafts already taking place, it’s time to start looking at those players being selected first in drafts. This year offers a very different set of players than we’ve seen in recent memory. Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuna Jr. have all fallen out of contention for first... Read More

Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know... Read More

Hitter Batted-Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and how batters make contact. The league average... Read More

Introduction to Advanced Stats - Sabermetrics Fantasy Baseball Analysis

Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple... Read More

Early One-Man Mock (Rounds 2-5) - 2022 Fantasy Baseball

I've already run through the first round of my one-man mock, which you can check out right here. Now, let's move on to the next few rounds with a look at how early drafts might shake out. I took roster construction into consideration so that a team didn't select three outfielders in the first three... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Statcast xStats

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. It has also become controversial as of late due to allegations of pitchers using foreign substances to increase their spin. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Statcast Exit Velocity

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures.... Read More

RotoBaller Friends & Family Industry Mock Draft Recap

The 2021 RotoBaller Friends & Family Mock Draft is the continuation of an annual tradition where we gather some of the biggest names from the fantasy baseball world and put together a mock draft just as spring training has commenced. Thanks to RT Sports for once again hosting and providing a custom draft site where... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Barrels

We've previously looked at how exit velocity (or EV) is only one piece of the fantasy analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Am I evaluating a baseball player or trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles triangle?... Read More

An Introduction to Advanced Stats for Fantasy Baseball Managers

Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. Over the next two months, this series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use... Read More

H2H Points Leagues Draft Primer

We recognize that some of our readers may be new to fantasy baseball and interested in trying a points league for the first time. The goal here is to outline the traditional format scoring while offering up suggestions for draft strategy. Below is a pretty generic Head-To-Head Points Format scoring outline. You will need to... Read More

Points League Players and the Platforms Who Hate Them

Trust. Whether in roto, point leagues, or otherwise, players should be able to trust that the rankings and values they choose to rely on will be accurate and specific to their league format. That standard seems to be a bit fuzzy when it comes to points leagues, even though point leagues should be fantasy baseball's... Read More

Later-Round Category Targets - WHIP

Welcome back to RotoBaller and my later-round category targets series, thanks for being here. In this article, we're going to talk about some middle and late-round starting pitchers that can help your team in the WHIP category. It's important to note that there is a ton of overlap with WHIP and ERA, and I've already made... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Ballpark Factors

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. However,... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More

Top 10 Tips for Fantasy Baseball Snake Drafts

Before I begin, let me caveat everything I say with this: I don't consider myself to be some sort of expert master fantasy player. I've only been playing fantasy baseball for a little under a decade. But as soon as I started to immerse myself into this game we all love, my main focus was... Read More

Finding Over/Undervalued Third Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Last year we introduced our Expected Draft Values and explained how they would help us identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, with pitchers as well. Today, we'll look at four third basemen and our site projections for them. Stay tuned over the next couple... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Batting Order

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining... Read More

Finding Over/Undervalued Second Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Welcome to the FSWA-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We now head to second base as we make our way around the diamond for 2021.... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More

JB's Bullpen Method Redux - Building FrankenAces

Last year, I finally published an article breaking down my favorite fantasy baseball strategy I have been using for years. It's really less of a strategy and more a state of mind. No, the Bullpen Method is a lifestyle. I always speak about the importance of balance on a fantasy team. For your pitching staff, I... Read More

Finding Over/Undervalued Shortstops Using Expected Draft Values

Welcome to the FSWA-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We'll start at first base and make our way around the diamond to begin the 2021... Read More

Tout Wars 12-Team Mixed Draft Recap

The 2021 Tout Wars season kicked off this week with the 15-team Draft and Hold starting on Monday and then the NEW 12-team Mixed draft on Tuesday. The Draft and Hold is a slow draft, while the 12 team Mixed was live and rocking. I was fortunate enough to take part in the 12-team draft. ... Read More

Finding Over/Undervalued First Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Welcome to the FSWA-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We'll start at first base and make our way around the diamond to begin the 2021... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pull%

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is... Read More

Nick Mariano's Auction Draft Strategies and Tips (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. We applaud you and your league for playing in the more entertaining format that is auction-based fantasy baseball. This is not a 101-level "how-to" guide, you'll need to know how to click "Bid" and whatnot. But I want to help you go from the... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: FIP/xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory, pitchers control only Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. Therefore, Ks, walks, and dingers are... Read More