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2016 Catcher Prospects and Dynasty Rankings

Now that we've taken a look at the rest of the infield (first base, second base, shortstop, and third base), it's time evaluate a thin pool of catchers. In many ways, it's the least important fantasy position - even in dynasty leagues. A typical fantasy league might roster 15 catchers. My dynasty league rosters around 35 catchers. It's a 20-team, 45 player league (900 players rostered). Catchers make up about four percent of all players owned. Several of those catchers are amateurs or international players.

To give some perspective, A.J. Pierzynski spent nearly the entire season on the waiver wire. Piersynski was a top 15 5x5 catcher this year, but a combination of age and shaky track record led our entire league to avoid picking him up.

Part of this has to do with the cyclical nature of dynasty leagues. In ours, some teams are focused heavily on prospect development. A couple posted almost no major league stats this season as they seek to leverage their rebuilding efforts. There's no point rostering Pierzynski for them. For my own team, Pierzynski could have been a solid backup to Russell Martin. We never felt the need for a second catcher. Instead, we hung onto Tyler Clippard in case he's signed as a closer this offseason.

The point to all of this is that catcher prospects generally aren't high quality assets. Sure, you'll find the occasional Buster Posey advancing through the minors. The most recent player with a similar offensive ceiling was Blake Swihart. I should also include Andrew Susac as an honorable mention. He has a decent offensive ceiling, but he's hidden behind Posey.

Be sure to also check out all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. We have rankings and tiers across all positions, for MLB prospects, and for dynasty/keeper leagues.

The statistics reported are for the listed level only.

 

Catcher Dynasty Rankings

1. Peter O'Brien (C/OF, ARI, AAA)
Stats: 534 PA, .284/.332/.551, 26 HR, 1 SB, 23.2% K rate, 5.8% BB rate
Age 25

The Diamondbacks originally acquired O'Brien from the Yankees in exchange for Martin Prado. They were perhaps the only organization who thought O'Brien could stick behind the plate. They've lost their confidence in that plan, moving him to the outfield for regular reps mid-season. The club says he'll once again enter the spring as a catcher, but don't expect the job to stick.

Once he loses that precious position eligibility, his dynasty value will plummet. However, he's still an interesting prospect regardless of position. He features well above average power as evidenced by the 66 home runs he hit over the last two seasons. He even enjoyed a brief 12 plate appearance cup of coffee (4-for-10, 1 HR, 5 K). It's possible he'll never feature as a regular due to a high strikeout rate.

O'Brien is probably major league ready as a bat first corner outfielder. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks have David Peralta, Yasmany Tomas, and Ender Inciarte to fill the corners. The club was desperate for catching depth last spring, but now Welington Castillo has a firm grip on the job. The path to playing time lies through injury or lousy performance from an entrenched veteran.

 

2. Gary Sanchez (C, NYY, AAA)
Stats: 146 PA, .295/.349/.500, 6 HR, 1 SB, 19.2% K rate, 7.5% BB rate
Age 23

Sanchez recently made headlines by winning the MVP award at the Arizona Fall League All-Star Game. I considered it a toss-up between Sanchez and the next guy on the list. The strong fall performance was the tie-breaker.

Once a top international prospect, Sanchez took the long route through the minors in no small part due to questionable make-up. Scouts have always loved his natural talent, but they still question his dedication to the game. To me, it does seem that he's improved his focus recently. However, I don't have a first person take on his defense which is obviously important to his future. He has the tools to be at least an adequate catcher. Whether he's put in the necessary effort to hone them is debatable.

The bat is major league ready. He's never had a below average offensive performance at any level. In addition to his solid Triple-A stint, he also posted similar numbers at Double-A over twice as many plate appearances. He's one of the top hitters in the AFL with six home runs and a .328/.353/.688 line in 68 plate appearances.

Like O'Brien, he has no direct path to playing time. Unlike O'Brien, even the indirect path is blocked. If Brian McCann were to land on the disabled list, John Ryan Murphy can be expected to provide above average production behind the plate. The club would love for Carlos Beltran to serve as the designated hitter. Or Mark Teixeira. Instead, Alex Rodriguez has that job. Greg Bird has first dibs on first base if an injury stack clears space. Sanchez's owners will have to be patient.

 

3. Jorge Alfaro (C, PHI, AA)
Stats: 207 PA, .253/.314/.432, 5 HR, 2 SB, 29.5% K rate, 4.3% BB rate
Age 22

Acquired by the Phillies in the Cole Hamels trade, Alfaro missed most of the 2015 season with an ankle injury. He made just six recorded plate appearances with his new franchise. While with the Rangers, Alfaro took a step backwards offensively. However, scouts now seem a little more confident that he can stick behind the plate. At least, that was the consensus before the injury.

Philadelphia has a couple solid catching prospects. Alfaro possesses the highest ceiling thanks to a 20 to 30 home run ceiling. He'll need to clean up his plate discipline and adjust to high quality breaking balls.

Given the recent injury history and mixed performance, expect the Phillies to take it slow. The club has another top catching prospect (more on that in a moment) and Cameron Rupp flashed major league average ability last season.

 

4. Andrew Knapp (C, PHI, AA)
Stats: 241 PA, .360/.419/.631, 11 HR, 1 SB, 17.8% K rate, 9.1% BB rate
Age 24

While Philadelphia will probably take it slow with Alfaro, I expect them to let Knapp loose. He was a decent, under-the-radar catching prospect prior to a mid-season promotion to Double-A. He experienced a power and plate discipline breakout at the advanced level. Of his 77 hits, 34 went for extra bases - a sure sign he was locked in rather than just lucky.

Knapp actually comes with a decent pedigree despite relative obscurity. He was the 53rd overall pick in the 2013 draft. If he can continue where he left off, he's a candidate to reach the majors next season. If he does so, he'll have created plenty of hype on the process.

It's also not uncommon for decent prospects to peak early and dwindle back into obscurity. Knapp is by no means a sure thing. The power output at Double-A is a clear outlier. In the AFL, he's hit just three doubles in 41 plate appearances. Most of his damage has come via walk (.226/.390/.323). It's also possible that he's simply tired after a long 2015 campaign.

 

5. Max Pentecost (C, TOR, N/A)
Stats: Did Not Play
Age 22

Pentecost was the 11th pick of the 2014 draft. He performed well in his first 109 plate appearances that season. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2015 season with a series of injuries. Updates on his status are few and far between. Assuming he ever gets back on the field, he could quickly climb to the top of this list. Sometimes, seemingly promising careers never get started.

 

6. Willson Contreras (C, CHC, AA)
Stats: 521 PA, .333/.413/.478, 8 HR, 4 SB, 11.9% K rate, 10.9% BB rate
Age 23

Undoubtedly, you've heard of that Kyle Schwarber fellow. Scouts always thought he hit too much to risk behind the plate even if he could manage to improve enough defensively. Schwarber is a catcher in the same sense that Pablo Sandoval, Josh Willingham, and Carlos Delgado were catchers. Contreras is the Cubs' future behind the plate.

He's coming off a fantastic 2015 campaign at Double-A. Unlike Schwarber, he has enough defense chops to handle catcher long term. More importantly for fantasy owners, he's shown a combination of advanced pitch recognition and decent power. He's no Brian McCann, but he should prove to be valuable in that potent Cubs lineup.

Contreras is currently blocked by Miguel Montero and Schwarber. It's not a long term issue, but it will mean he's stuck at Triple-A until Montero hits the disabled list. Chicago acquired Montero last offseason, and he still has two years left on his deal. Unless they aren't happy with the way he works with the pitching staff, I expect the Cubs to keep Montero for at least one more season. However, he could become trade bait if and when they want to make the transition.

 

7. Kevin Plawecki, C, NYM, MLB)
Stats: 258 PA, .219/.280/.296, 2 HR, 23.3% K rate, 6.6% BB rate
Age 24

An injury to Travis D'Arnaud opened the door for Plawecki, but he was simply overmatched in his first taste of major league action. Unlike the others we've profiled thus far, Plawecki's offensive ceiling appears to be somewhere around league average for the position (which is actually below league average overall).

Despite a strikeout rate above 23 percent, Plawecki profiles as a high contact hitter. Unfortunately, the quality of contact may leave something to be desired. He is expected to eventually get a crack as the Mets regular. D'Arnaud's bat is valuable enough to play elsewhere on the field where he might be more durable. I see Carlos Ruiz and Yadier Molina as the upside for Plawecki. It took years of futility before either player was a fantasy asset. File Plawecki away for later use.

 

8. Reese McGuire (C, PIT, A+)
Stats: 411 PA, .254/.301/.294, 14 SB, 9.5% K rate, 6.3% BB rate
Age 20

McGuire was the 14th selection in the 2013 draft. He's considered a plus defender and should reach the majors within a few seasons. To this point, he's shown almost no power - three home runs in nearly 1,000 plate appearances. However, he's expected to eventually grow into 10 home run pop.

It's good to see such high contact rates, and the flash of speed is a positive too. If McGuire doesn't develop additional power, he'll probably be overmatched in the upper levels. I see his ceiling as resembling Francisco Cervelli's 2015 season. At the very least, he should make enough contact to post a solid batting average.

Names To Watch

Catchers make for unusual prospects. The first priority is defense. A good defensive catcher can make decent money supporting minor league pitching staffs. He may even carve out a solid career as R.A. Dickey's personal assistant (hello Josh Thole). The minors leagues are riddled with these defense-first guys. Sometimes, they magically learn how to hit. Many of the names below have either shown signs of a breakout or are expected to breakout sometime in the unknowable future.

 

Austin Barnes (C, LAD, MLB)

Barnes was seriously overmatched in a 37 plate appearance cup of coffee in the majors. At Triple-A, he performed well with a .315/.389/.479 slash. His calling cards are plate discipline and high contact rates. He's a decent defensive catcher, but he can also provide utility at second and third base. He has nothing left to prove in the minors.

Chance Sisco (C, BAL, AA)

Sisco, 20, has shot through the minors. His best tool is his bat - particularly above average contact rates and plate discipline. He's a little shaky behind the plate, but scouts think he'll stick. For the moment, he's still an incomplete prospect.

Tyler Stephenson (C, CIN, R)

The 19-year-old was picked 11th overall in the 2015 draft. He didn't set the world afire in rookie ball, but he comes with a top pedigree.

Anthony Garcia (C, STL, AAA)

Garcia, 24, was recently added to the Cardinals 40-man roster. He's shown decent in-game pop for the position with 55 home runs over the last four seasons (1,631 plate appearances). He could eventually take over for Yadier Molina. He'll return to Triple-A until he's needed.

Francisco Mejia (C, CLE, A-)

The just-turned 20-year-old is several years from the majors. However, he's seen as a potential above average catcher with 15 to 20 home run upside. He's also a switch-hitter. Don't expect to see him before 2018 at the earliest.

Jacob Nottingham (C, OAK, A+)

Acquired as part of the Scott Kazmir trade with the Astros, Nottingham is an offensive-minded catcher who could improve enough to be an every day guy. He popped 17 home runs with over a .300 average. He may have 20 home run upside with a .265 average, but first he'll need to make a few minor adjustments.

Clint Coulter (C, MIL, A+)

The 27th pick of the 2012 draft, Coulter has demonstrated good power over the last two seasons (35 home runs in 1,088 plate appearances) with solid plate discipline. The 22-year-old would be among the top prospects at the position, but he's transitioning to the outfield. By the time he reaches the majors, he may no longer have catcher eligibility.

Tom Murphy (C, COL, MLB)

Last season, Murphy popped 23 home runs between three levels including three blasts in 39 major league plate appearances. The 24-year-old is a third string backup for the Rockies this season. He has serious contact issues.

Max Stassi (C, HOU, MLB)

One report from FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel called Stassi "a bat-first big league backup." He doesn't have the defensive chops to start, and he doesn't have enough bat to play elsewhere. He has 45 major league plate appearances split over three seasons. I'm pretty sure (but not positive) that he's out of options. He has too much swing-and-miss in his game.

Taylor Davis (C, CHC, AAA)

Davis is probably destined to serve as the Cubs' backup catcher, but he had a good offensive season in Triple-A as a 25-year-old. Davis is the type of prospect who could be used as a throw-in to a trade. He's so far under the radar that I have no scouting reports on his defense.

Eric Haase (C, CLE, A+)

Haase has power and has an average ceiling behind the dish. Unfortunately, his plate discipline is atrocious. The soon-to-be 23-year-old will have to improve dramatically to reach the majors.

Jamie Ritchie (C, HOU, A+)

Like Davis, Ritchie is rarely talked about as a prospect. The 22-year-old split 2015 between Low and High-A. He posted a 143 wRC+ at both stops, but he's a little old for the levels. He might be worth a speculative add at some point next season if he continues to hit.

Parker Morin (C, KAN, AA)

Morin, 24, had a decent offensive season at Double-A - .309/.347/.489 in 191 plate appearances. Morin is an under-the-radar guy with few scouting reports. No word on his defensive ability or why he only made 201 total plate appearances last season.

 

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In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More