Carolina Panthers: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

 

Carolina Panthers Offseason Changes

Offseason Acquisitions – WR Jericho Cotchery, WR Jason Avant, WR Tiquan Underwood

No Longer on the Roster – WR Steve Smith, WR Brandon LaFell, WR Ted Ginn, WR Domenik Hixon

When you take a quick look at the massive turnover at the Carolina Panthers wide receiver position it looks extremely worrying. The knee-jerk reaction is to assume that quarterback Cam Newton won’t be able to stay efficient with that much change, not to mention a step down in talent with the departure of Steve Smith. There’s also been a tendency to assume that since none of the receivers left are as talented as Steve Smith was, that none of them will be fantasy relevant. If you dig a little deeper, you’ll realize rather quickly that that’s not entirely true. What little is left of the Panthers passing attack should end up being just fine for fantasy.

 

Carolina Panthers Quarterback

Cam Newton has had a rather rough off-season to say the least. Newton had a surprise ankle surgery back in March, which just so happened to be coupled with his top receiving threat Steve Smith being released. Let’s start with the surgery. It’s no secret that Cam Newton’s greatest threat on the field is his ability to scramble out of the pocket and earn you fantasy points with his legs. The fear after an unexpected ankle surgery is that his ability would be limited thus lowering his upside considerably. After all, you need your ankles to run. Luckily for Newton, he’s actually right on schedule to make a full recovery in time for the season and has already been cleared to work out. This isn’t a Robert Griffin III injury where he completely blew out his knee; resulting in a legitimate concern he wouldn’t be ready in time for the last year’s season.  Cam should be healed in plenty of time for week one so don’t fret about the surgery.

The more poignant concern lies within the Panthers wide receivers or lack thereof. The departure of Steve Smith (along with seemingly every other receiver from the 2013 roster) is actually extremely misleading. Cam Newton has never needed to throw the ball all that often to be a productive fantasy quarterback. In fact, he’s never even really needed any receivers either. Cam finished 15^th in passing yards, 17^th in passing attempts, and only threw for 24 touchdowns in 2013 but racked up 585 rushing yards. That’s a lot for a quarterback and it’s the reason he ended up well inside the top 10 in terms of fantasy points among quarterbacks in most formats. He simply does not rely on his arm enough for it to be a cause for concern. The only minor hiccup involving Cam Newton is his tough fantasy ranking. Most rankers have him planted in the fourth or fifth round. That places him at about the fifth or sixth ranked quarterback. It’s a fair ranking but it does mean you’re passing on the last batch of solidified RB2s and WR2s. Taking Cam at that spot means you’re probably not drafting a Frank Gore, Andre Ellington, Wes Welker, or a Victor Cruz. Again, that’s fine but just be aware of what you’re giving up.

 

Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers

Alright, so we know Cam Newton doesn’t need a star wide receiver to be productive but he still does actually have to throw the ball to someone. For a guy who had such a stellar fantasy season could you believe that not one of Cam Newton’s wide receivers even finished in the top 40 in receiving yards last year? In fact, Steve Smith just barely cracked the top 50, putting up 745 yards, good enough for 49^th best. Smith never even topped 70 yards in a single game last year. If you’re thinking that these numbers just sound like all the more reason to believe in Cam, you’re right.

Every Panthers receiver is gone but we should still at least evaluate who was added. The most intriguing addition out of the three veterans the Panthers signed is easily Jericho Cotchery. Cotchery had 10 receiving touchdowns with the Steelers last year, good enough for a three-way tie for 10^th best in the league. Now, as difficult as touchdowns are to repeat year to year, especially when you’re changing teams, it’s hard to just throw that stat out the window. Cotchery will most likely emerge as the top receiving threat for the Panthers and is worth a stash on your bench, but just revisit Steve Smith’s numbers last year, and that’s pretty much your ceiling. Steve Smith is certainly a more talented receiver than Cotchery, so use that stat line as your best-case scenario. For years people have talked up the number two receiver in Carolina as if he’s bound for a breakout but it’s never come to light. See: Brandon LaFell. (That means you can ignore Tiquan Underwood and Jason Avant until proven otherwise.) There is however, one name we will get to in a minute that may be the most interesting of the bunch.

 

Carolina Panthers Running Backs

AVOID AT ALL COSTS. Seriously, do not bother with any Carolina running back if you can help it. There are plenty of other names around the league that will have unbelievably more upside than anyone on the Panthers. Carolina still implores a three-headed monster at running back with Mike Tolbert, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart. All three pretty much cancel each other out. It’d be nice if the team just committed to one guy given how run-oriented their passing attack is, but no one expects that to suddenly be the case in 2014. You’re much better off taking a shot with a guy like Bernard Pierce, who may end up with the starting gig in Baltimore. Or better yet, consider that DeAngelo Williams is typically the highest ranked guy out of the three and ask yourself  “Whom would I rather have? DeAngelo Williams or Cleveland Browns tight end Jordan Cameron?” I rest my case.

 

Carolina Panthers Rookies

Now that I’ve completely destroyed the three running back veterans on the team, let’s say something relatively positive. Remember that interesting name I alluded to earlier? Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin was selected by the Panthers at the end of the first round in the 2014 NFL Draft. That’s huge not just for his high draft status but for the Panthers in general considering how dire their wide receiving corps looks.  Before you get too crazy, remember that no one on the Panthers has posted big receiving numbers with Cam as the quarterback. You’d basically be hoping that Benjamin emerges as a surprise first-year stud similar to Keenan Allen of the Chargers last year. That said, if you’re in a deep league or a three wide receiver league, Benjamin may be worth a late lottery ticket.  In a standard league though, forget it.

 

Carolina Panthers Tight Ends

You know who had the most receiving yards, touchdowns, and receptions on the Panthers last year? Tight end Greg Olsen, that’s who. It’s possible Greg Olsen is the most undervalued tight end in fantasy right now, so much so that I’ve actually found myself taking him consistently in any mock drafts that I’ve done. Someone will catch the ball in Carolina and there’s no reason not to expect Greg Olsen to be the number one guy again. It’s even possible his role increases due to how lackluster the other options are. Olsen is grouped together toward the back half of the top 10 tight ends within most rankings, putting him in about the 10^th or 11^th round. I wouldn’t mind reaching for him to assure I get him.

 

Carolina Panthers in Summary

See? Not nearly as bleak as it might appear for the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton will be just fine so long as he’s healthy in time for the season and thus far there’s no reason to expect him not to be. Should things change, we’ll revisit his fantasy status. As for those daunting wide receivers, Cotchery is the only guy worth grabbing and late at that. Kelvin Benjamin is an interesting name to monitor but remember how little impact wide receivers had on the Panthers offense last year. Greg Olsen should be the true number one passing option and I fully intend on going out of my way to ensure he’s on my roster this year. And lastly, did I mention to AVOID THE PANTHERS RUNNING BACKS AT ALL COSTS?!?