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Here at RotoBaller, we have discussed Carlos Correa at length over the past few days and weeks, and the MLB top prospect was finally promoted to the Astros on Sunday. After going 1-for-4 with an RBI in his major league debut, he followed that up by going 2-for-4 with a home run, stolen base, one run scored and two RBIs.
Will he be the second coming of Alex Rodriguez? Will he produce like the next Mike Trout? RotoBaller writers Edward Setulan, George Bissell and Harris Yudin share their thoughts with you.
Editor’s Note: to read about even more MLB prospects, rookies and potential call-ups, be sure to check out our MLB prospects for fantasy baseball homepage which has lots of great weekly analysis.
Welcome To The Show Carlos
Analysis by George Bissell (@GeorgeBissell)
It was just three years ago when Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow made the surprising decision to pass on the most exciting high school hitter in years (Byron Buxton) and a pair of elite collegiate arms (Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel) to select shortstop Carlos Correa out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy.
Not only did Correa sign a below slot deal, which gave the Astros the financial flexibility to sign Lance McCullers (who looks like a fixture in the rotation for years to come), but he has evolved into one of the game's brightest future stars. The minor league numbers he's put up this season would make Mike Trout blush and simply speak for themselves. Correa obliterated Double-A pitching, slashing an absurd .385/.459/.726 with seven home runs and 15 steals before earning a promotion to Triple-A where he hit .276/.345/.449 before getting the call-up earlier this week.
Jed Lowrie was productive during his brief stint as the Astros "shortstop of the present", slashing .300/.432/.567 in 74 plate appearances, before hitting the disabled list with a thumb injury. It was clear when Houston signed him that he wasn't a permanent solution. If you look up the phrase "injury risk" his picture will be there, but I would wager that they didn't think he would break that quickly, or that his replacements would play as poorly as they did.
Given an opportunity to reclaim a starting gig in the wake of Lowrie's injury, both Marwin Gonzalez (.227/.233/.353) and Jonathan Villar (.264/.320/.374) flopped miserably, giving Correa an opportunity to step into the big league clubhouse earlier this week. He's the unquestioned shortstop of the future for the future, and there is no risk that he will be sent down anytime soon no matter how badly he struggles.
A Superstar In The Making
Analysis by Edward Setulan (@RedsGuy1869)
It took until June 8, but Carlos Correa was finally given the long awaited call-up to the majors. This player has exciting potential and has drawn many comparisons by scouts to a young Alex Rodriguez, back when he was an athletic shortstop with both power and speed.
Carlos Correa began his professional career with a lot of lofty expectations. He was taken with the first overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft, and was the first ever Puerto Rican and Latin American-born player to be taken in that slot.
Correa went straight into Rookie League and performed well in his brief time there, but it was his first taste of A-ball that further established the hype. He played in 117 games in 2013. He owned a slash line of .320/.405/.467 with nine home runs and 10 stolen bases. He quickly rose through the system, starting his 2014 season with High-A ball. In 62 games there, he had a slash line of .325/.416/.510 with six home runs and 20 stolen bases with a 12.3% BB rate and a 15.4% K rate. Unfortunately his season was shortened by a fractured fibula that required surgery.
The Astros shortstop was given his first official invitation to Spring Training in 2015 (after previously being a non-roster player in 2014), but was later sent to Double-A. He absolutely tore up Double-A pitching in 29 games there to the tune of a .385/.459/.726 triple slash with seven home runs and 15 stolen bases, while walking 11.3% of the time and only striking out 18.8% of the time.
Correa’s excellent performance at Double-A accelerated his timetable, and on May 11th he was promoted to Triple-A. In a brief stint there, Correa possessed a triple slash line of .276/.345/.449 with three home runs and three stolen bases in a mere 24 games.
On June 8th, Carlos Correa was officially called up to the majors and was plugged into the Astros lineup in the six hole against tough lefty Chris Sale. Correa had his first major league hit and RBI on an infield single that was originally ruled as an out, but was shortly thereafter overturned.
Among the many prospects that will get called up this season, none have quite as much fantasy value promise as Correa. Kris Bryant possesses game-changing power, but Correa has a great power/speed combination in a position that is typically lacking in offensive production. He should be expected to remain in the middle of that Astros lineup, which will give him plenty of RBI chances to go along with a lot of home runs, stolen bases, runs scored, and a high batting average. Correa is very much capable of being a major contributor in all offensive fantasy statistics.
Tell Me More
Analysis by Harris Yudin (@Hayudi18)
Carlos Correa was the first of three consecutive first overall picks made by the Houston Astros between 2012 and 2014. Mark Appel, the first pick in 2013, posted a 6.91 ERA in 2014 and currently owns a 5.20 ERA through 45 innings of Double-A ball in 2015. Brady Aiken, Houston's first choice in 2014, failed to sign with the team. Aiken had Tommy John surgery in March, and was chosen 17th overall by the Indians in the 2015 draft. Only Correa has shown promise to an Astros team on the rise.
Correa made his MLB debut with the Astros on Monday, and went one for four with an RBI and a strikeout against Sox ace Chris Sale. Interestingly, Correa was the only Astro not to swing and miss at a single pitch thrown by the lefty.
At 6'4", 210, Correa has drawn comparisons to Alex Rodriguez, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. The 20-year-old Correa has shown above-average power, and seems to be improving in that area as he puts on weight. After hitting just six long-balls in 249 AB in 2014, he already smacked 10 in 215 minor league at-bats prior to his call-up. Assuming he remains at shortstop, which will absolutely be the case for at last the short term, the potential for 20 HR power will make him invaluable for fantasy owners.
Only three shortstops, Ian Desmond, Jhonny Peralta and Troy Tulowitzki hit 20 or more homers in 2014 - all three of those players are in the National League. Alexei Ramirez led American League shortstops with 15 HR. As for 2015, no one manning the shortstop position currently boasts double-digit home runs. As of this writing, Jhonny Peralta and Wilmer Flores each have nine, and Marcus Semien tops the AL list with just six. Alexei Ramirez leads AL shortstops with 22 RBI-- Correa knocked in 44 runs in his time in the minors thus far.
A Young Superstar With a Bright Future
Analysis by George Bissell (@GeorgeBissell)
The important thing to remember about Correa's immediate future is that we shouldn't expect him to turn into a superstar overnight. We're venturing into virtually uncharted waters given just how young he is, but if there were ever going to be an outlier, it would be him.
To give you a proper sense of just how rare it is for a 20-year old to not just make his debut, but garner significant playing time, only 13 hitters in the last decade have received at least 100 plate appearances at the major league level at the age of 20. It's an impressive list highlighted by Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and Justin Upton, just to name a few. Aside from Trout, Harper and Stanton (truly once in a generation talents), none of them blossomed into immediate fantasy superstars. Correa has that type of elite ceiling, but the odds of him reaching it right out of the gate are extremely small. Fantasy owners in re-draft formats should temper their expectations. Realistically, Correa is talented enough to make a positive contribution in batting average, power (expect plenty of doubles right out of the gate) and stolen bases, but I don't think he evolves into a fantasy superstar overnight like we saw with Kris Bryant (who was 23 when he debuted) earlier this season.
They are different types of hitters, but a solid comparison from a statistical standpoint would be Devon Travis. Prior to suffering a shoulder injury, the rookie hit .271 with seven home runs and a pair of steals in 146 plate appearances. I would confidently bank on a similar line from Correa over the next month or two.
This is where it gets interesting. Long-term, there isn't a better fantasy stock to own than Correa, simply because he plays shortstop and can impact five categories at an elite level if he reaches his lofty upside. He projects as a middle-of-the-order bat who can hit for a high average (.280-to-.300 range annually) with the capability to not only hit 20 home runs, but steal just as many bags.
The shortstop position is changing dramatically in the next few years. With Hanley Ramirez moving to the outfield and losing eligibility permanently, the concerns swirling around Troy Tulowitzki (health) and Ian Desmond (defense) make it extremely likely that Correa becomes the cream of the crop at the position sooner rather than later.
It's an exciting time for young shortstops, with both Correa and Addison Russell at the big league level and studs like Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and J.P. Crawford knocking on the door in the minors. The next generation of the position is here and the time to invest, no matter how high the cost, in keeper and dynasty formats is right now.
A Young McCutch or A-Rod?
Analysis by Edward Setulan (@RedsGuy1869)
The only negative on Correa is that he will not be able to play in a full season of major league ball. The Astros had already played in 58 games prior to his arrival which means that he will play in a maximum of 104 games at the MLB level. So what players could his rookie season possibly compare to?
How about Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen’s rookie 2009 campaign saw him play in a mere 108 games, as his call-up had been delayed by him playing 49 games at Triple-A (compared to the 53 games that Correa spent in the minors in 2015). That season McCutchen had a slash line of .286/.365/.471 with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, an 11.0% BB rate, and a 16.8% K rate.
McCutchen’s scouting profile is very similar to Correa’s, as both of them have great the ability to rack up high stolen base and home run totals while not being a full 80 in either power or speed. Both have the potential to be 30-30 players while 20-20 should be a near perennial accomplishment for both of them. Also both of them are going to be far above average contact hitters which means that, like McCutchen, Correa should be able to hit around .300-.320 virtually every season.
Obviously those are lofty expectations for Correa to live up to, but seeing as how some scouts have compared him to a young Alex Rodriguez, there have already been many scouts applying high amounts of pressure on the 20-year-old.
Carlos Correa is an outstanding talent in a position that has been devoid of much fantasy promise for years. Correa has the potential to be an elite fantasy provider in a full 150+ game season in 2016, and should in all likelihood be a top 20 draft pick in most fantasy drafts. Carlos Correa is now, and for the foreseeable future, a must own in all fantasy leagues and should be viewed as one of the premium talents in baseball.
Looking Forward
Analysis by Harris Yudin (@Hayudi18)
Before his call-up on June 8th, Correa managed a .173 ISO in 98 AB in Triple-A. Despite being an above-average ISO, this number may make it seem as though he "struggled" at the highest level of minor league ball. However, this is only because of the unimaginable .342 ISO he posted in Double-A earlier this year. To put that into perspective, Joey Gallo, a player whom MLB.com gave an 80 power ranking (20-80 scale), managed a mere .322 ISO in his final stint in Double-A before getting the call to the big leagues earlier this month.
Correa also posted a 228 wRC+ and a 1.185 OPS in Double-A over the first month and a half of the season. While not the prototypical leadoff-hitting speedy shortstop, Correa can run. He gets on base a lot, creating a ton of base-stealing opportunities for himself. He swiped 20 bags in 2014 and 18 between Double- and Triple-A in 2015, despite coming off of a broken leg.
Correa will never be a 40 HR guy, but he has elite power for a player at his position. Combine that with his speed, his plate discipline, and his ability to drive the ball into gaps, and you have the makings of an outstanding fantasy player who should produce at a high level sooner rather than later.
It goes without saying that Correa should be owned in every single keeper or dynasty league, but it would not be much of a stretch to say that he can provide immediate value to fantasy owners in all leagues.
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