Welcome to our last segment of Breakout/Busts. We've covered the field, now we head to the pitching mound.

Pitching is where most fantasy seasons are won and lost. The problem is players read that and assume "OK, let's draft some aces in the first six rounds". But it doesn't work like that. Unless you're grabbing Clayton Kershaw late in the first round, there's no reason to gamble on a starter early. None of the players mentioned in this segment went in the first eight rounds of drafts, and a few of them were likely undrafted.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at SP

Jake Arrieta (CHC - SP)

2015 Statistics: 229 IP, 22 W, 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236 K, 29 QS

If you didn't think  Arrieta was leading off our breakout pitcher segment, I advise you lay off the booze. Dallas Keuchel was a worthy candidate as well, but he technically broke out in 2014. Also, I don't buy his 2015 success as sustainable. So that leaves us with Arrieta.

The Cubs ace followed up his solid 2014 campaign (25 GS, 2.53 ERA, 9.59 K/9) by becoming even more dominant, finishing the year second in ERA and WHIP while his 236 K were sixth among pitchers. You may recall his freak-mode second half when he compiled a 0.75 ERA over 107 innings, propelling the Cubs to their first playoff berth since 2008. Think Baltimore is regretting that trade yet?

One of the biggest adjustments for Arrieta stems from a change he made in 2014; he laid off the four-seamer and starting using his cutter more. PITCHf/x gave his cutter a score of 23.5 wCT, easily the best in baseball. Hitters flailed at the cutter to the tune of a .198 average and .277 slugging.

Will Arrieta replicate his 2015 performance? My vote is no, only because it's likely we've reached the peak with Arrieta. His 80.0% LOB rate was fourth among pitchers (his career average is 71.2%) which indicates he may have been the beneficiary of fortunate contact. The fastball and cutter gained velocity this year, so I'm not frightened of drastic regression. The problem is you'll have to pay second or third round value for Arrieta when you're likely to see fifth to sixth round production. Steamer seems to agree, projected a 2.97 ERA/1.12 WHIP/219 K over 208 innings. Still great numbers, just not worth the price tag.

 

Carlos Martinez (STL - SP)

2015 Statistics: 179.2 IP, 14 W, 3.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 184 K, 20 QS

My sleeper heading into 2015 did not do me wrong, putting together an excellent first season in the rotation and becoming a key cog when Adam Wainwright went down. Mini-Pedro saw himself ranked outside most pundits top 75 (!) starting pitchers and finished the year at No. 25.

One of the main keys to his success was the implementation of his changeup. He used the pitch 17.2% of the time (almost double from 2014) and it limited hitters to a .148 average and .246 slugging. It graded out at 7.5 wCH via PITCHf/x, 12th among starting pitchers. The largest effect the changeup had was on left-handed hitters. While he traditionally had struggled versus lefties, they only hit .257, down from .289 in 2014.

Martinez sputtered down the stretch and finished the second half with a 3.73 ERA until eventually being shut down with a shoulder strain, but it's hard to blame C-Mart considering it was his first full year as a starter. His arm strength should be built up to go a full 200 IP. Steamer only projects 175 IP with 3.47 ERA/1.25 WHIP/172 K. Those are solid ratios for a backend fantasy starter, but unless he can control the walks (3.16 BB/9) he won't move to make the next leap to a top 15 starter.

 

Marco Estrada (TOR - SP)

2015 Statistics: 181 IP, 13 W, 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 131 K, 16 QS

Remember when I said there were players on this list who went undrafted? Here's one. And don't try and tell me you drafted him, I see right through your shenanigans.

Estrada was an instrumental piece of the Blue Jays rotation, serving as the de facto ace until David Price arrived and Marcus Stroman returned. He led all AL starters with a 1.04 WHIP and .202 opponents' average, while his 3.13 ERA was fourth among AL starters. In the end he finished as the No. 16 starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Much of his success can be attributed to his fastball-changeup combo. Opponents only managed to hit .176 with a .280 SLG versus his changeup and .195 with a .404 SLG versus the heater. His changeup received a 13.2 wCH PITCHf/x score, good enough for fourth among qualified starters.

While the Estrada storyline was a great one, I can't see him duplicating his success in 2016. His .216 BABIP was the lowest among all starters and well below his career .261 BABIP. The advanced metrics indicate Estrada was extremely lucky last season, with his SIERA (4.64) and xFIP (4.93) suggesting he had some help from his defense. Steamer projects bad days ahead, with a 4.47 ERA/1.33 WHIP/132 K over 174 innings. The low strikeout total along with the advanced analysis indicating regression is enough for me to pass on Estrada come draft day.

 

Danny Salazar (CLE - SP)

2015 Statistics: 185 IP, 14 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 195 K, 18 QS

While the Cleveland Indians underachieved in 2015, Danny Salazar (and the rest of that rotation) should have Tribe fans in good spirits heading into the future. Salazar came into the season with high expectations and delivered, finishing as the No. 18 starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Salazar is your prototypical power pitcher. He averages 95 MPH on the fastball and throws a devastating split-changeup 20% of the time. Hitters were left with a 11.8 SwStk%, which was seventh among AL starters. Going back to the strength of the Indians' rotation, two of his teammates (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco) placed ahead of him. His 15.3 wCH PITCHf/x score was second among all pitchers. The split limited hitters to a .144 average with a .213 slugging percentage. Filthy.

I think we're seeing the development of a bona-fide ace in the making. His nasty split-change combined with his 95 MPH fastball gives him a 1-2 punch to maintain success long-term. Top it off with solid location (2.58 BB/9) and we have an ace. Steamer projects a 3.43 ERA/1.17 WHIP/180 K over 173 innings. Salazar could easily surpass the innings and strikeout totals, making him a top 25 starter heading into 2016.

 

Noah Syndergaard (NYM - SP)

2015 Statistics: 150 IP, 9 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 166 K, 14 QS

Can't have a breakout article without one of the new Mets' starters. Steven Matz was a worthy candidate but didn't put up close to a full season worth of statistics, so we're going with Thor.

Syndergaard joined the team in May and took the league by storm with his dominant fastball. His 97.1 mph fastball was tops in baseball and limited hitters to a .224 average. His curveball was equally nasty, limiting hitters to a .180 average.

If there's anyone I'm truly bullish on in this feature, it's Syndergaard. His 9.96 K/9 combined with his 1.86 BB/9 ratio makes him a legitimate contender to crack the top 10 of starting pitchers. Only three pitchers had a K/9 ratio over 10 with a BB/9 ratio below two: Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Chris Sale. That's some pretty good company if you ask me.

Steamer projects Syndergaard to progress in 2016, with a 3.09 ERA/1.10 WHIP/193 K over 176 innings. Great numbers, but I think Syndergaard will be even better. Don't be surprised when Thor finishes with a sub-3.00 ERA and over 200 K, making him well worth the price-tag come draft day.

 

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