The top tier of quarterbacks is easy to figure out. Telling you that Drew Brees might have a pretty good year won't help you out on draft day. With quarterbacks being drafted later and later each year, many fantasy owners are dipping below the top ten to find a starter or pairing up second and third tier quarterbacks to play favorable match-ups from week to week. Among those mid-round options are three players who emerged suddenly to enjoy career years in 2015. With sudden success comes raised expectations, but also a certain degree of risk. Career years may indicate regression is in store, but just how much? Will these three gunslingers provide good return of value or should they be passed over on draft day?

Average Draft Position data (12 team Standard) taken from our own RotoBaller ADP rankings as of August 20th.

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2016 Draft Day - Boom or Bust?

Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS): ADP: 11.01

Cousins was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015, delivering the type of season for Redskins fans that RGIII couldn't the last couple of years. The non-Boogie Cousins completed 69.8% of his passes, tops in the NFL. His 7.67 Y/A placed him eighth in the league, so he wasn't just dinking and dunking either. 4,166 YDS and 29 TD used to be impressive, but when you realize there were 12 quarterbacks who reached the 4,000 mark and threw more TD than him, he starts to look like a middle of the pack player. There is nothing to hate about the season he put together, but duplicating that feat could be challenging.

With the exception of the small sample size taken from his rookie year, when he started just one game, Cousins has been increasing all his vital ratios. His completion percentage went from 52.3% in 2013, to 61.8% in 2014, then 69.8% last year. His TD% also rose accordingly - 2.6%, 4.9%, 5.3%. Most significantly, his INT ratio has gone down in each of his four seasons, from 6.3% in 2011 to 2.0% last season. Washington largely returns the same supporting cast, but got a bit younger at the skill positions. Matt Jones replaces the plodding Alfred Morris, who was less effective last year and subsequently let go.

First-round pick Josh Doctson may be the most talented of the 2016 receiver draft class and will also inject more speed in the offense. Overall, there is little reason to think Cousins will decline simply because he took many by surprise with his success. As a pure pocket passer, Cousins will have to at least keep his ratios near last year's. It is highly doubtful he will crack 70% Cmp%, but if he can hold his numbers relatively steady, it wouldn't be unreasonable to make Cousins a starter on a team front-loaded with stud RB/WR.

Verdict: Boom!

 

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) ADP: 11.09

It seemed like Dalton was on the verge of being run out of town after a disappointing 2014 in which he posted a 19/17 TD/INT rate and saw his passing yardage drop by almost 900 yards. Naturally, he responded with the best season in his five-year career. Midway through the season there was even MVP talk about Dalton! Then, the curse of the Bengals struck (that's a thing, right?) and he was forced to miss the last three regular season games as well as their tragic playoff loss. Dalton will be healthy and ready to go for 2016, but will he continue to trend upward or fall back to Earth?

If there were an outlier in Dalton's five NFL seasons, it would have to be 2015. He managed a career high 6.5% TD% and career low 1.8% INT%. In fact, every major category saw an increase last season for Dalton, culminating in a 73.11 QBR, good for fifth in the league. This would be encouraging for a third-year QB finally coming into his own, but regression seems in order for many of Dalton's ratios. In comparison to other QB available in the same range, Dalton just doesn't have the same upside.

Kirk Cousins passed for 4,000+ yards in one year as a starter; Dalton has done so once in five years and only surpassed 30 TD once. The Bengals also lost their #2 and #3 receivers when Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu bolted for free agency. Starting tight end Tyler Eifert may not be ready at the start of the season either. While Dalton's breakthrough was encouraging for Cincy fans, fantasy owners should know better than to make him anything other than a backup on draft day.

Verdict: Bust!

 

Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) ADP: 12.04

It's easy to question whether Taylor has truly earned the six-year, $93 million contract extension he received in the off-season after one year as a starter in Buffalo. He does have a lot of positives working in his favor. 1) He surpassed 3K passing yards (3,050) and finished second in rushing yards among all QBs with 568, only behind MVP Cam Newton. 2) For a dual-threat QB, he has very little wear and tear on his body and should be in prime shape physically. Despite being 27 years old, he has appeared in just 28 career games and started 14 of those, all last year. 3) He showed good accuracy, completing 63.7% of his passes and throwing just six INT. He finished the year ranked seventh in QBR with 67.8. 4) He has one of the most explosive playmakers in the league with receiver Sammy Watkins to throw to.

What is the downside then? This may be nitpicking, but there are a few warning signs. 1) Although he didn't throw many picks, he did fumble the ball four times as a runner and another five as a passer. In leagues that penalize turnovers, that could be problematic. In fact, for a mobile QB, he was sacked a relatively high 36 times. Buffalo's offensive line was recently ranked 10th by ProFootballFocus, which may be a bit generous, but Taylor may still be susceptible to taking his share of hits. 2) There were no significant upgrades to the blocking or receiving talent around him.

The Bills are still rolling out LeSean McCoy at tailback and the Watkins/Woods duo at receiver. Not bad, but there isn't anything to suggest we should upgrade his ceiling either. 3) Taylor didn't post a single 300 yard passing game last season. If you prefer steady performance over breakout potential, then Taylor may be your guy. To expect anything better than last season's stats may be unrealistic though. All told, Taylor is a relative bargain at his current ADP. The passing stats are good, but not great in this prolific offensive era. The rushing production is what makes Taylor a viable starter, albeit on the lower end of the spectrum. Don't fool yourself into thinking Taylor will see a big jump in production, but a healthy Watkins and Robert Woods all year would help him in his second year of this offense. For a 12th round ADP, he is well worth the pick.

Verdict: Boom!

 

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