RADIO
One rule I live by hard and fast in fantasy football is to never make any judgments about my team or any players before the first four weeks of the season. Especially now, with abbreviated practices and training camps, the first four weeks are often an extension of the preseason. But with Week 4 officially in the books and Week 5 upon us, we now have a large enough sample to start drawing some real conclusions about who a player is and what he can and can't do.
For example, the first four weeks of the season have shown that TE Jimmy Graham is likely to be highly inconsistent this season, with two weeks of double digit points in PPR leagues and two highly forgettable weeks. On the other side, RB Dion Lewis (especially after signing his two year extension) looks like he will be a potent fantasy option every week in PPR leagues especially. Things can still change, but the molds have been cast and are beginning to dry.
Using the information we've learned from the first four weeks of the season, we can better prognosticate what's to come in Week 5. Here are a list of players who look like candidates to either have monster Sundays or put up stinkers.
Potential Booms
Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: The legend of Aaron Rodgers grows with each week. So far, he's put up 11 TDs and thrown no picks. At this point, no matter the matchup, you can pencil him in for at least 16. But this week he's at home, where he's nearly unstoppable. Since Dec. 2, 2012, Rodgers's TD-INT ratio at Lambeau Field is a ridiculous 48:0. You would be starting Rodgers even if he was playing on Pluto, but at home, even against a tough Rams defense, expect big returns.
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: The Redskins just let Sam Bradford throw three TDs against them last week, and the Eagles' offense right now is questionable at best. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan hasn't thrown an INT since Week 1, is traditionally better at home and has yet to have an explosive fantasy game. He's due. This all points to a breakout for Ryan and the unbeaten Falcons on Sunday.
Running Backs:
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Jamaal Charles has been one of the few RBs drafted in the opening round who have been worth the high price tag. Expect the trend to continue this week. The Bears have given up 4.4 YPC and over 40 receiving yards per game to RBs so far this season and have also allowed two rushing TDs. They have yet to face a back of Charles's caliber and don't appear to have the manpower or skill to slow the perennial fantasy superstar down.
T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars: The touches have been there for Jacksonville's workhorse, with T.J. Yeldon receiving the third most carries in the NFL so far this season. The problem is that the touchdowns have not been there. Last week was a step in the right direction, with the rookie topping 100 yards for the first time in his young career. This week they face a Buccaneers squad that has been highly vulnerable to the run, giving up three consecutive games of 20 plus points to running backs from Week 1 to Week 3. This is the week of Yeldon's breakout.
Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens: As a general rule of thumb, you could do worse than starting any running back against the 31st ranked Browns rushing defense. It also helps that Justin Forsett roared to life and had his first big game of the season last week, rumbling for 150 yards on the ground. It's safe to assume that he'll have a second consecutive big week at home against Cleveland.
Wide Receivers:
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs: Fantasy owners were likely worried after the first two weeks of the season when Jeremy Maclin hadn't reached the end-zone or even 60 receiving yards in a game. The last two weeks have restored faith in the receiver, as he's put up 141 and 148 receiving yards and scored a TD. Meanwhile the Bears passing defense has been missing in action for most of the season, allowing eight TDs to receivers in the first four weeks. Look for a third straight big game from Maclin.
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons: An afterthought to start the season, Leonard Hankerson has made himself into a household name among the fantasy community in the first quarter of the season. With Julio Jones battling an injury and Roddy White looking old and ineffective, the door is open for Hankerson in Atlanta's offense. The Redskins have been awful against receivers this season, so you can expect a big game in Atlanta.
Tight Ends:
Charles Clay, TE, Bills: Charles Clay has already separated himself as a low-end TE1 and has been the most targeted Bills player in the passing game this season. Tennessee has looked somewhat vulnerable against TEs this season, giving up a pair of scores and 110 yards in Week 1 and then seven receptions and 83 yards in Week 3. With the way he is being targeted early this season, it's best to keep riding the Clay train.
Defense:
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo's defense has not exactly been a stalwart this season, registering negative points against New England and just three against the Giants (both home games). But against a Titans team that has allowed 12 sacks, six turnovers and two defensive TDs in just three games, plug in Buffalo with confidence.
Kansas City Chiefs: Three consecutive defenses have scored double digit points against the Bears, who have allowed nine sacks, four INTs, three TDs and two fumble recoveries. While the Chiefs have been awful over the last two weeks, they aren't facing Rodgers or Andy Dalton this week, so they should be good for big points.
Potential Busts
Quarterbacks:
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals: I'm a believer in the Red Rifle, just not this week against Seattle. The Seahawks haven't allowed a TD pass in their last two games and although Cincy is at home, I would steer clear of Andy Dalton this week if at all possible. It seems like Seattle's defense has woken up and that Cincinnati may come back down to Earth in Week 5.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars: With three consecutive respectable-to-good performances, Blake Bortles is officially on fantasy radar. Still, I would temper expectations in Week 5's tilt in Tampa. While the Buccaneers haven't exactly been a shutdown defense this fall, they've fared decently well against quarterbacks, allowing just four passing TDs in the last three games, and an average of 202.33 passing yards per game.
Running Backs:
Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Whether home or away, the Seattle Seahawks have been downright nasty against RBs this fall. In four games, no RB has scored a rushing TD and only one team has topped 100 yards on the ground. Add in the fact that Jeremy Hill seems to be in a timeshare with Giovanni Bernard and it's tough to expect a big game from Hill on Sunday.
Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: One of the few bright spots for the Philadelphia Eagles this season has been their running defense. No back has scored a rushing touchdown and the Eagles have allowed an average of 3.41 YPC. Mark Ingram has performed solidly this season, but the emergence of CJ Spiller and a tough Eagles run defense has this looking like a matchup to avoid.
Wide Receivers:
Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins: Pierre Garcon has performed like a low to mid-range WR2 this season in PPR leagues. He has been targeted consistently and has at least five receptions in every game this season. However, his modest receiving yard totals make him far too TD dependent. The Falcons have surrendered two passing TDs so far, and will be focused on stopping Garcon in the passing attack. Don't bet on Garcon this week.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: You're most likely not benching A.J. Green under any circumstance, but be weary this week against Seattle. Green has really only had one big time game and Seattle has only allowed one passing score in four weeks. There's always a chance Green can break loose, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Tight Ends:
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks: Jimmy Graham has been somewhat of a disappointment so far and has not drawn the volume of targets fantasy owners were likely expecting. Coming off of a four reception, 29 receiving yard game and facing a Bengals defense that has not surrendered a score to a TE this season, it may be prudent to bench Graham or temper expectations.
Defenses:
St. Louis Rams: The Rams have been a very strong defensive unit this season, racking up 17 sacks in four weeks, which is good enough for second in the league. But against Green Bay at Lambeau Field, I'm not sure there's any defense worth rolling the dice on. Leave St. Louis on the bench.
