Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

Baltimore Ravens Offseason Changes

Offseason Acquisitions – WR Steve Smith, TE Owen Daniels

No Longer on the Roster – N/A

Coaching Changes – New Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak

Let’s get this out of the way fairly quickly shall we? The Baltimore Ravens aren’t exactly a fantasy football goldmine. In fact, they’re actually one of the weaker teams in fantasy despite having some interesting storylines stemming from key offseason events. The Ravens have always been known as a team built on a strong defense with an offense that quite literally ran directly through running back Ray Rice. Between Rice’s complete collapse in 2013, his arrest in the offseason, and several personnel changes, the Baltimore offense might actually be more anemic than usual.

 

Baltimore Ravens Quarterbacks

After winning the Super Bowl in 2013, quarterback Joe Flacco received an enormous contract that split football fans in two. Some took it to mean Flacco would live up to the fat payday while others dismissed the deal entirely, likening it to overpaying for a guy they just couldn’t afford to lose.

Say what you want about the deal, the fact of the matter is Joe Flacco has never really been a fantasy relevant quarterback in the first place. Yes, Flacco was good enough to bring the team a Super Bowl win and actually played well during that stretch but that success has never been felt in the world of fantasy football. Some of Flacco’s stats may look better than they appear in a certain context but there’s really only one stat that matters: 19 touchdowns to 22 interceptions last year. That’s average for real-life NFL standard’s, never mind fantasy.

Just so we’re not completely bashing Joe Flacco here, just take a look at some of the players that tend to be ranked above him: Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andy Dalton just to name a few. Every single one of those guys is a more proven fantasy option than Flacco. That would put him at about quarterback number 18 at best. Besides, at that point you’re just drafting a backup or a bye week fill-in anyway so you might as well take someone with upside (Johnny Manziel perhaps?). Leave Flacco for 2-QB leagues only.

 

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers

One of the more talked about offseason moves has been the Ravens acquisition of wide receiver Steve Smith. Smith has had a lengthy and productive career with the Carolina Panthers so the simple analysis would be to expect the same kind of production in Baltimore. Unfortunately for Steve, there’s another Smith in town who is firmly atop the Baltimore depth chart. I’m speaking, of course, about the incumbent number one receiver for the Ravens, Torrey Smith.

Torrey Smith is typically ranked just outside the top 20 at receiver from year to year and that actually sounds about right. He’s a talented player with potential to end up in the top 15 who just so happens to play within a below average fantasy offense. Torrey Smith was a low top 20 guy in targets and receiving yards last year, which should continue given that he is the proven player on the team. Below average offenses tend to have trouble supporting multiple fantasy contributors at the same time, so we are not very high on Steve Smith in 2014. It’s likely Steve Smith will have a big game here or there but at no point during the season will you feel comfortable starting him over the Marques Colstons of the world.  Torrey is the Smith with the better value, as Steve simply won’t be consistent enough throughout the season. The height of Steve Smith’s fantasy value will likely reach its peak as a WR4, which is precisely where most rankers have him pegged.

 

Baltimore Ravens Running Backs

As of writing, it is unclear just how long Ray Rice will be suspended after his altercation with his wife in Atlantic City. The consensus around the league is that he will likely receive multiple games so for arguments sake let’s operate under the assumption he gets a four game ban.

That leaves you with about 11 games of Ray Rice (12 if your league ends week 17). So the next question is what version of Rice are you getting? Are you getting last year’s abysmal 660 rushing yards Ray Rice? Or are you getting the well-established fantasy stud that existed prior to 2013? Here’s some more context for just how bad Ray Rice was last year: Brandon Jacobs had the same amount of touchdowns as Rice. They both had four of them. Brandon Jacobs is 32 years old and played in just seven games last year. That is a terrible comparison for the pride of Rutgers.

At only 27 years old, it’s not crazy to think Rice could have a bounce-back year but when you start looking at his projected value, it’s hard to justify taking him. For example, if you’re sitting in the fifth round and your options are risking 11-12 games of bad Ray Rice as your third running back or T.Y. Hilton as your third receiver, which one sounds more appetizing? Between his horrid numbers last year and an almost certain suspension looming, Rice is worth more if he plummets in your draft than if you were to take him where he’s expected to go. Let someone else deal with that kind of risk while you’re grabbing wide receivers or a quarterback.

The backup for Ray Rice is Bernard Pierce who should actually end up as a trendy sleeper by the time your draft rolls around. The only problem is that the Ravens may only view Pierce as a fill-in for however long Rice is suspended. If that’s the case, Pierce’s value is reduced significantly. That said, it definitely couldn’t hurt stashing a guy like Pierce in the event the suspension is longer or Rice simply doesn’t bounce back. Pierce could end up having sole possession of the starting gig by the middle of the season so using a mid-to-late round pick on him is a nice idea.

 

Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends

Dennis Pitta was somewhat of a sleeper heading into 2013 prior to his season-ending injury. That status has been somewhat revitalized as a potential late round pick at tight end this year. Once you start ranking tight ends 7-12 there tends to be a lot of sameness so it becomes tough to differentiate the Dennis Pittas from the Jordan Reeds. Pitta has potential for sure, it’s just a matter of how long you’re willing to wait before pulling the trigger on drafting a tight end. It’s worth grabbing Pitta if there aren’t any running backs or receivers you like at the time in which you’d start considering him in round 11 or so.

If you’d prefer to wait even longer on tight end, here’s something to consider regarding the Ravens tight end position. The Ravens signed tight end Owen Daniels and new Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak this offseason. The correlation between the two is that they both came from the Houston Texans, meaning there could be some pre-established rapport within the offense. On the flip side, reports out of minicamp suggest Kubiak intends to use Pitta all over the field, stretching beyond his normal role at tight end. I know it sounds like a hedge but both pieces of information are important and should be viewed as tiebreakers in the event you can't decide between Dennis Pitta and someone else.

The only two offensive rookies drafted by Baltimore were running back Lorenzo Taliaferro and wide receiver Michael Campanaro. Neither player is expected to be a big part of the offense this season, especially given the uncertainty already established by the veterans previously mentioned. The best case scenario for the Ravens this year is that Torrey Smith takes a step up into the top 15 at wide receiver, Dennis Pitta ends up living up to his 2013 hype, and Bernard Pierce takes over for Ray Rice at running back. Unfortunately, the chances of all three of those things happening are more unlikely than likely.