Bold (adj.) ˈbōld

Definition: fearless before danger

Prediction (noun) pri-ˈdik-shən

Definition: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

Together, these words form the perfect recipe for making me look like an idiot at the conclusion of the 2016 MLB season. Our beloved Kyle Bishop asked the RotoBaller crew if we wanted to form a list of ten bold predictions for the upcoming season. “Sure!” we thought, excited for the chance to stretch our minds out. But really, we were risking everything.

Below are my ten bold predictions. You may find that they are really not that bold. You may read them and say that I’m bolder than Donald Trump. Either way, if one of these comes to fruition, I’ll quit my job, move to the woods, and become a full-time shaman.

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10 Bold Predictions for 2016

1) Luis Severino wins more decisions than David Price

Spring Training has already not been kind to David Price. In fact, all Boston Red Sox pitchers are flat out struggling. Am I the only one who does not view him as THE David Price anymore? I must be. There are no statistical signs of regression. Price actually posted a career-best 2.78 FIP down the stretch last year after being moved to Toronto. And yes, the velocity on all of his pitches actually increased last year from the previous two seasons. And ok, fine, opposing batters’ BABIP was the lowest it had been since 2012. But something still seems off. Maybe it’s the abysmal playoff record?

This is not to say that Price is not one of the better starters in baseball, because he is. There is no denying that. However in 2016, MLB’s youth movement will take its toll on Price’s longevity. Luis Severino is one of the AL East’s blooming stars, and I believe that when it’s all said and done, Luis Severino will have won more decisions that David Price. Severino already seems wise beyond his years and he is chomping at the bit to show us what he can do. The velocity, the efficiency, the temperament, the poise; Severino has what it takes to be one of the better starters in the game. Last year, it was Noah Syndegaard who dazzled the Big Apple in his first few MLB appearances, earning him a better record than many prevalent starters in the NL. This year, we head from Queens to The Bronx where a Yankees rookie is set to outshine a perennial fixture of the game that now calls Fenway Park home.

 

2) Dellin Betances finishes the season with the most saves in the Yankees’ bullpen

While we are on the topic of New York Yankees pitching, let’s discuss the most talked about bullpen in MLB. With the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees’ bullpen became widely acknowledged as the best in baseball. With Dellin Betances slotted in the 7^th inning role, Andrew Miller as the set-up man, and Chapman as the closer, opposing teams may as well just beat the traffic on the Major Deegan and head back to the hotel if they are not leading after six innings.

However, things got a little complicated when the MLB flexed its muscles and hit Chapman with a 30-game suspension for an offseason domestic violence incident involving his girlfriend. This will put Miller back at the closing helm for 18.5% of the 2016 season. Miller thrived in this role last year, with 36 SV and 100 K in just 61.2 IP. Thrown in the absurd 14.59 K/9 and the low 0.73 HR/9 and it is easy to tell that Miller was one of the best closing options in the AL and in baseball overall.

Before Miller was brought in from the Baltimore Orioles via trade, we got a look at Dellin Betances’s prowess on the mound. Betances has taken a somewhat unconventional career path, as control issues raised a lot of questions during his time as starter in the minors. Regardless, his size, power, and baseball acumen was undeniable and the Yankees brass continued to give him chance after chance. In 2014, the Yankees were reward for that patience. Betances was near perfect in his hold attempts and served as the perfect set-up man for then-closer David Robertson.

Chapman will not be a factor in the beginning of the season. He is no stranger to both adversity and time off, after being hit in the face with a line drive a few years back and needing surgery to fix the damage to his skull. The Yankees’ three bullpen stars are somewhat interchangeable and if one reliever isn’t getting it done, Joe Girardi will not be afraid to switch it up. Chapman may come back and show the rust. Miller may be in line for some regression after being relegated to the eighth inning. Dellin Betances has what it takes to be an elite closer and we may see some more of that in 2016.

 

3) Carlos Correa’s sophomore slump makes us regret drafting him in the first round

When I was really young and beginning to understand what sports were, my dad got me a Ken Griffey Jr. poster. At the time, we were living in Queens, N.Y. and my dad essentially made a part-time job out of yelling at the New York Mets on the radio. So maybe he just wanted an escape from the Mets and having The Kid on his son’s wall was the way to do it.

But really, my dad knew just how special of an athlete Ken Griffey Jr. was. He knew that as I grew up and started to develop my own thoughts about baseball, Griffey Jr. ought to be a sort of gold standard for what a baseball player really was. It may be a little early but thus far in his career, Carlos Correa is showing us that he will be featured on the walls of children nationwide soon enough.

Carlos Correa’s rookie season was the stuff dreams are made of. In just 99 GP and 432 PA, Correa hit 22 home runs, accounted for 68 RBI, and compiled a .857 OPS. He also flashed his speed, stealing 14 bases. Oh yeah, Correa had a 3.3 WAR as a rookie. All of these things helped contribute to the single best statistical rookie season for a shortstop in the era of free agency.

While this is all well and good, we need to remember that Correa did all of this in only 99 GP. That is a decent sample size, but is it one that gives us the full confidence that he can transition that into a full season? I do not doubt that he will be one of the better players in baseball for years to come. However, I am posing the question of whether or not he will be able to do it again in his second season and if his rise to stardom is as sustainable as everyone seems to think in the early stages of his career.

 

4) Chris Davis finishes the season with a sub-.170 batting average

They say that the sound of contact on a home run is one of the best sounds in sports, and I happen to agree. Hearing that crack makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside as you watch the ball travel through the air and into the stands. If you are in the ballpark when it happens, it is even more awesome.

While going to college in Baltimore and living there for two more years after I graduated, I became a regular fixture at Camden Yards. Needless to say, I have heard plenty of home run cracks. I never thought I would hear one from the parking lot. But one gorgeous Friday evening in May while walking to the stadium from the parking lot after arriving late, I heard a home run crack from nearly a mile away. It may sound corny, but it really did send chills down my spine. Who hit that home run, and why the heck was it so loud? Obviously, it was Chris Davis.

They don’t call him Crush for nothing. In four full seasons with the Orioles, Davis has mashed 159 home runs. 53, that’s right, 53 of them came in 2013 alone. 47 more of them came last year. But there is a difference. In 2013, those 53 home runs came alongside a .286 average and a .634 SLG. 2014 was not kind to Davis, as he only managed 27 home runs, a .196 average, and a .404 SLG. The main difference was the drop off in hits that were not home runs. From 2013 to 2014, there was a significant decrease in singles and doubles. Compared to 2013, when Davis hit 71 singles and 42 doubles, he only accounted for 46 singles and 16 doubles in 2014. Last season, the 47 home runs came alongside a meager .262 average and a suppressed .562 SLG. He was able to register more hits though, with 72 singles and 31 doubles.

So where does this leave us for 2016? While Davis was a Texas Ranger, he struggled mightily. Many attributed these struggles to his status as the hometown kid, having grown up in Longview, Texas and been drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2008. The pressure of having all of Texas’s eyes on him in the batter’s box hindered Davis and eventually, the Texas Rangers believed that a change in scenery was necessary. The Baltimore Orioles agreed.

This season, Davis finds himself staring his old friend pressure square in the face. After being given a seven-year, $161 million deal this offseason as one of the most sought-after free agent commodities, the onus is on Davis to produce. Given his past struggles with pressure, it is not out of the question for Davis to be gripping the bat a little too tight and trying too hard. Sometimes a player’s mind is his own worst enemy. I LOVE my O’s and it really pains me to type these words, but I would not be surprised if Davis winds up being one of 2016’s biggest catastrophes in fantasy baseball.

 

5) Khris Davis hits 40+ home runs

Swap the C in Chris for a K, and we potentially have one of 2016’s most productive power hitters in baseball. A recent trade between the Oakland Athletics and the Milwaukee Brewers sent Khris Davis to the Bay Area, where his walk up song (Gangsta Rap Made Me Do It by Ice Cube) will really be appreciated.

Davis is often viewed as a one-dimensional player. Power defines him, end of story. In the last two seasons, he hit 49 home runs. 22 of them came in 2014 and 27 of them came in 2015. Also in 2014 and 2015, most of his stats are pretty close to each other, with some of them being almost identical:

Year	GP	AVG	RBI	BABIP
2014	144	.244	69	.275
2015	121	.247	66	.285

 

One thing to note is that in these two years, his BB% nearly doubled from 5.8% to 10.0%, helping him raise his OBP from .299 to .323. This shows us that Davis is working to shed his reputation as a free-swinging, all-or-nothing power hitter.

Now this improvement is great, but we are not going to see Davis suddenly transform into an all around guy. Power is still the crux of his game, and Oakland is excited to see that power develop. An interesting thing to note about Davis’s status as a power hitter is his size. He is only 5’11” and only weighs 200 lbs; not what often comes to mind when we think power hitter. Additionally, Davis derives most of his power from his upper body, using his forearms and his hands to create awesome extension. This makes him even more of an unconventional power hitter, as many others in MLB derive their power from their legs. Coaches are working to hopefully uncover a new level of power by strengthening his legs and adding a new component to his swing.

Moving from a hitter-friendly ballpark to a more spacious hitting environment, many are skeptical of Davis’s ability to keep it up. But not to worry! Billy Beane and the Oakland brain trust compiled a study that determined whether or not Davis’s 27 home runs in 2015 would have left O.co Coliseum. Sure enough, they found that all 27 dingers in 2015 at Miller Park and on the road would have also translated to home runs in Oakland.

Davis will most likely be given the keys to the starting RF job, allowing him ample playing time and a healthy serving of PA. Watch out, because when he gets going, Davis may be unstoppable in 2016.

 

6) Shelby Miller finishes with a lower ERA and WHIP than Zack Greinke

The gut reaction to the news that the Arizona Diamondbacks had sent one of baseball’s top prospects in Dansby Swanson along with a crop of other great players to the Atlanta Braves for RHP Shelby Milller was an overwhelming “what the hell!?” Sure, Miller had finished the 2015 season with a 3.02 ERA, had compiled more than 200 IP for the first time in his career, and added in a no-hitter, but the king’s ransom that Arizona spent on him was asinine to many baseball minds. The trade came just days after the D-backs had given Zack Greinke $206.5 million to be their ace, raising even more questions as to why the D-Backs went all in on Miller.

A look at Miller’s pedigree shows us exactly why the Arizona gave him such a vote of confidence. Before his time in Atlanta, Miller spent time on the back end of the St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation. In those three years, Miller collaborated with the likes of Adam Wainwright, A.J. Pierzynski, and Justin Masterson to take his game to the next level. In 2014, Wainwright warned Miller of the peril he faced if he did not develop other pitches alongside his four seamer. One day, Masterson shared his sinker grip with Miller, and the rest was history. In that season, Miller really worked to hone his craft and start diversifying his repertoire. The results were favorable; he finished that season with a 2.08 ERA in seven starts.

When Miller was traded to Atlanta for Jason Heyward, he was slated to become the No. 2 starter behind Julio Tehran. No one expected him to be “the guy” but Miller came in and set Turner Field on fire. His record in 2015 (6-17) may not have reflected his actual value, but the Braves just weren’t a good team. With a newly developed sinker, an excellent cutter, and an abandoned change up, Miller lowered his HR/9 to 0.57 from 1.08 in 2014, and his HR/FB to just 6.4% from 9.9% in 2014. Not really known as a strikeout pitcher, he raised his K% from 16.6% to 19.9%. Waino’s advice stayed with him and as the 2015 season pressed on, we started to see a more effective changeup.

Zack Greinke is Zack Greinke. He is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher whose WAR has reached as high as 8.6. Last year, Greinke finished with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. If it weren’t for all the hype surrounding the Chicago Cubs, he probably would have won the NL Cy Young over Jake Arrieta. And it’s not like a change in scenery is going to affect him. Greinke has gone from Kansas City, to Milwaukee, to Los Angeles, and the results have always been there. However one thing to account for in 2016 is the workload. Greinke has accounted for 601.5 IP in the last three seasons. His durability is not really in question, but I wonder whether or not he will be able to maintain his “Greinke-ness” for yet another season.

The drop off in Greinke’s play will not be that substantial, and there may not even be any drop off at all. However, I expect Miller to tap into an extra gear in 2016. Miller is a guy that can reflect on his game and make the necessary adjustments to achieve greatness. He has done it once already, and now he is ready to really push himself. Don’t be surprised if it’s Miller, not Greinke, who finishes with the lowest ERA and WHIP on the D-backs.

 

7) Roberto Osuna has more saves than any closer in the AL East

The AL East is loaded with great closers. We’ve already covered the Yankees’ closing situation. With Craig Kimbrel in Boston, Zach Britton in Baltimore, and Brad Boxberger in Tampa Bay, the division is surely saturated with 9^th inning studs. This is all without the mention of Roberto Osuna, the Toronto Blue Jay’s young gun who came in the 9^th inning role with unprecedented confidence for a guy with such limited experience. Osuna had 20 SV last year and racked up 75 K in just 69.2 IP. On top of that was a 14.7% SwStr% and an eye-popping 95.5 average fastball velocity.

The Yanks will be without Chapman for 30 games. The San Diego Padres had no problem getting rid of Craig Kimbrel after a career-worst season. It is hard to gauge how many SV opportunities will be available for Britton and Boxberger because we really don’t know what to make of the Rays and the O’s yet. Drew Storen was brought into Toronto through free agency, but he shouldn’t be part of the equation for very long.

Toronto asked Osuna about transitioning back to being a starter, but Osuna has reservations about that move. Mainly Osuna cited that he needs to be pitching every day to maintain consistency and focus, and that being subjected to four to five day stretches where he is not pitching would impact his performance negatively. Toronto will most likely listen to their star reliever. Osuna really seems ready to build on his unprecedented 2015 campaign and rise above the rest of the AL East closers.

 

8) Justin Bour, not Giancarlo Stanton, leads the Miami Marlins in home runs and RBI

In all of my drafts this year, I will not touch Giancarlo Stanton. I have nothing against the guy, but my gut just says stay away. Maybe it’s the injury that cut his 2015 season in half, or maybe I’ve gone mad.

The Miami Marlins were left scrambling for power when Stanton went down with a hand injury, and they found it in Justin Bour. In 129 GP and 409 PA in 2015, Bour hit .262 with 23 home runs and 73 RBI. Not bad for being the power anchor of a relatively weak offense. In the same season, Stanton was relegated to just 74 GP and 318 PA but still hit four more home runs than Justin Bour. Wow.

Heading into 2016, the Marlins are somewhat of a question mark. We have no idea what new manager Dom Mattingly has in store for the club, but we do have a clearer picture of what the batting lineup will look like. We can expect Bour to hit in the cleanup spot behind Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton. As the Marlins’ everyday 1B, Bour will see tons of at bats and tons of looks with runners in scoring position. This will lead to a bunch more RBI, but will the home runs be there?

A look at two important stats for both Bour and Stanton should tell us. Stanton’s BB% was down 4.0% percentage points from 14.7% in 2014 to 10.7% in 2015. Simultaneously, his K% increased from 26.6% in 2014 to 29.9% in 2015, the highest since his rookie year. Subsequently, all of his numbers were down. The injury contributed to a smaller sample size, but there is still cause for concern with respect to Stanton’s plate discipline.

Bour’s BB% in 2015 was nothing to write home about (7.6%). His K%, however was significantly lower than Stanton’s (22.6%). Trending in the right direction, it seems that Bour was able to make more pitches count.

The main factor in Bour surpassing Stanton as the Marlins’ main power threat is his ability to hit lefties. All 23 of his home runs came against righties in 2015. This is concerning, there is no hiding that. But if we look at the NL East, we see an abundance of righties, mainly concentrated to the lowly Atlanta Braves. With marked improvements in his plate discipline, Bour will be able to tone down the intense splits and I see him making the necessary adjustments to hit righties. They may not be home runs initially, but a couple of bloop RBI singles should be enough to get the confidence ball rolling. By the All Star break, Bour will have figured it out just in time to compile a historic second half of the season. I don’t see him surpassing 40 home runs, but I don’t see Stanton doing that either. I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-32 home runs and 85-95 RBI is reasonable for Bour. Stanton has topped 90 RBI in a season just once in his career. Let the games begin.

 

9) Wil Myers plays his first full season and shows us why he was once a top prospect

One of the most frustrating players over the last couple years from both a real life baseball and fantasy baseball perspective has been Wil Myers. Wrist injuries have completely derailed his young career, as he as only managed 225 GP in the last three seasons. In fact throughout his entire career, both in the majors and the minors, Myers has never played more than 100 games. He did come close 2011 and in 2012 while in the Royals’ farm system, with 99 GP in each year respectively.

Myers was part of the massive show of “win now” for the Padres a few years back, bringing him in alongside Justin Upton, James Shields, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris, Wil Middlebrooks. At the time, the baseball world was stunned. Almost three years later, we see that this was not only a failed experiment, but it was actually a dumpster fire. Matt Kemp was (and still is) non-existent. The Padres were forced to acknowledge that a month-long hot streak for Derek Norris while platooned at catcher in Oakland did not translate to a full season of starting duties. They let Justin Upton walk in free agency without any reservations. Myers is still around though, and the Padres continue to be excited about what he can offer. And for good reason.

Myers has a little bit of everything in his game, but he is mostly looked to as a source of power. His numbers do not show the same. Dave Cameron once made the interesting comparison of Myers to Adam Jones, whose power did not develop until the later stages of his career. Through his career at the age of 25 years old, Jones had an ISO of .164. Through that same time, Myers’s ISO was .152. This comparison may be more accurate than we initially think, as Jones is a similar player: a great all around player whose power is his most consistent attribute.

In 2012, Myers hit 37 home runs 591 PA between time with the Royals and the Rays at the AA and AAA levels. In 2013, he hit 27 home runs, 14 of them coming in 289 PA with the AAA Rays and 13 of them coming in 373 PA in the majors. So anyone who discredits Myers’s power ability needs to look at his minor league career before making any assumptions. The transition from AAA to the majors is not easy, but Myers sure made it look easy before his wrist started acting up.

 

10) After being traded to a contender, Jonathan Lucroy supplants Buster Posey as fantasy baseball’s best catcher

While writing this stupid list, I came across a bit of information that I figured I would share with you. Over the winter, the Milwaukee Brewers came very close to a three-team deal that would have sent Jonathan Lucroy to the Houston Astros. This would have put him in one of the baseball’s most threatening lineups with names like Carlos Gomez, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Colby Rasmus lurking throughout. There were no concrete details other than the involvement of the Atlanta Braves in the deal.

Lucroy kind of did himself a disservice by publicly asking for a trade to a contender. While this is a good business move to get what he wants, this path sometimes harms a player more than it helps them with respect to organizational tensions and loss of credibility within the fan base. However, Jonathan Lucroy has been a trooper his entire career with the Brew Crew and we could make the argument that Lucroy has been more valuable to the organization than Ryan Braun. So I understand his frustration.

Let’s look at three contending teams who could use an upgrade at Catcher:

 

Texas Rangers

Current Catcher Depth Chart:

1. Robinson Chirinos
2. Christopher Jimenez
3. Bobby Wilson

Nothing spectacular. Chirinos has the most experience out of this group, with 701 PA in four seasons. We don’t know too much about Jimenez and Wilson, nor do we need to; they will most likely be non-factors. Lucroy could join Cole Hamels in Texas as a stand-out All Star who left a terrible NL team for greener AL pastures. Boy, would Lucroy push the Rangers over the edge. Check out this potential lineup:

1. Delino DeShields OF
2. Jonathan Lucroy C
3. Shin Soo-Choo OF
4. Prince Fielder DH
5. Adrian Beltre 3B
6. Mitch Moreland 1B
7. Ian Desmond OF
8. Elvis Andrus SS
9. Roughned Odor 2B

Imagine that.

 

Houston Astros

Current Catcher Depth Chart:

1. Jason Castro
2. Max Stassi (out 6 weeks while recovering from wrist surgery)

That’s really it. Castro, while serviceable offensively and sound defensively, represents the only chink in the Astros’ offensive armor. Adding Lucroy into the Astros’ lineup would look something like this:

1. Jose Altuve 2B
2. Carlos Correa SS
3. Jonathan Lucroy C
4. George Springer OF
5. Carlos Gomez OF
6. Evan Gattis DH
7. Luis Valbuena 3B
8. Colby Rasmus OF
9. Jonathan Singleton 1B

The Astros would have some tinkering to do in order to determine exactly what their first five slots would look like. Mainly the question of whether or not Springer could be put in the cleanup role looms, but these are good problems to have.

 

Minnesota Twins

Current Catcher Depth Chart:

1. Kurt Suzuki
2. John Ryan Murphy

Yes, it is time to start viewing the Minnesota Twins as contenders. Maybe not World Series contenders, but at least playoff contenders. They may play in a packed division with the defending World Series Champions, the Kansas City Royals, as well as the new and improved Chicago White Sox, the always-competitive Detroit Tigers, and the unpredictable Cleveland Indians. But the Twins have a great mix of youth and experience, and we saw them claw their way up the standings last season. Lucroy could bring a lot to the table for the Twins, especially when the lineup would look like this:

1. Brian Dozier 2B
2. Joe Mauer 1B
3. Jonathan Lucroy C
4. Miguel Sano OF
5. Eddie Rosario OF
6. Trevor Plouffe 3B
7. Byung Ho Park DH
8. Byron Buxton OF
9. Eduardo Escobar SS

Lucroy has always been able to hit for average as well as get on base, with a career average of .282 and a career OBP of .340. In a lineup that is filled with young and relatively unproven free swingers, Lucroy could add some stability.

We can probably assume that Lucroy will be traded at some point, but we are not sure when. For his fantasy output, the sooner the better. The Brewers are sort of a fantasy wasteland, and tension between Lucroy and the organization is building. Lucroy is motivated to show the rest of MLB why he is so valuable, so look for Lucroy to produce right out of the gate. Posey is great and all, but is time for Lucroy to break down the barrier and become the new consensus No. 1 Catcher.

 

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