No matter the format of your league, now is a critical time for contenders. Your team is either vying for a playoff spot or, in year-long formats, making a push for the top of the rankings.

From here on out, the remainder of the season is a small sample size. There's merit to throwing caution to the wind. It's time to abandon the starting pitchers who have hurt you for far too long and take a chance on high-upside, relatively unowned replacements.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 
Past editions: Week 1 (OF/SP) | Week 2 (OF/SP) | Week 3 (SS) | Week 4 (1B) | Week 6 (SP) | Week 7 (2B) | Week 8 (SP) | Week 9 (C) | Week 12 (OF) | Week 14 (SP) | All-Star Break (3B) | Week 15 (SS) | Week 18 (1B)

 

Overrated

Drew Smyly, TB
62% owned, via Fleaflicker

Smyly looked awesome in April. He plowed through the competition, striking out almost seven times as many hitters as he walked en route to a 3.26 FIP and 3.47 xFIP. Then it all fell apart. The red flags were already there; they always are for fly-ball pitchers like Smyly. Fantasy owners could tolerate the 1.3 HR/9 Smyly allowed in April as long as he kept humiliating opposing hitters, but the latter failed to continue, and the home run problem only worsened.

What owners have in Smyly now is not unlike a poor man's Matt Shoemaker. Smyly can adequately prevent baserunners with solid strikeout and walk rates, but his fly ball tendencies make any start of his a nailbiter. He's the kind of pitcher that will tease you with occasionally great stuff but forsake you as soon as you think it's safe to trust him.

He's only 27 years old -- it feels like he has been around forever -- but youth doesn't really make him any more appealing in keeper or dynasty formats. Problems are problems no matter who has them, and Smyly's won't go away until he changes his approach, adds a pitch, something -- or maybe never. Who knows. Regardless, Smyly is not worth owning in standard mixed leagues.

Josh Tomlin, CLE
44% owned, via Fleaflicker

Tomlin is like Mark Buehrle, one of my favorite pitchers of all time. Both make (made) due with below-average velocity and walk(ed) pretty much no one, resulting in an intriguing pitcher that does well to prevent baserunners and limit WHIP ratio damage.

Unfortunately, Tomlin is currently the personification of home run issues, having allowed home runs on almost 20%(!) of the fly balls he has induced. And it's not like this is unusual for Tomlin -- he has a 13.3% HR/FB for his career and a 17.0% rate since the beginning of 2014. This is old news in Camp Tomlin. Like Smyly, and Michael Pineda, and occasionally Matt Shoemaker, home runs will inevitably undo all the good work you do.

Tomlin simply doesn't possess the putaway stuff that can get him out of trouble or prevent further damage by the long ball. He's hittable, and while he has allowed more than two walks only once in 49 starts the last three years, the impeccable command does not exempt him from disaster. With that said, one could certainly do worse than a 4.15 xFIP, 4.39 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, even in shallower formats. It's just that he probably shouldn't be owned in more leagues than Anthony DeSclafani or Jeremy Hellickson or Jameson Taillon or Dylan Bundy or Jon Gray or...

 

Underrated

Collin McHugh, HOU
60% owned, via Fleaflicker

McHugh has endured an incredibly strange season. In March I wagered his strikeout rate (K%) would bounce back up to the 22% range; right now, it stands at 22.7%. In the same breath, however, I pegged him for top-30-starter upside. That, dear comrades, sounds utterly foolish today. Looking at just his strikeouts and walks, McHugh's weird 2016 seasons looks like a dead ringer for his marvelous 2014 campaign. Only problem is he's now serving up almost twice as many home runs per nine innings (HR/9) and an additional 100+ points of batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

It's hard to say there's rhyme or reason to it. Sure, McHugh has allowed more hard contact (Hard%) than in the past. But he does well to induce a decent rate of ground balls and his fair share of infield pop flies. The peripherals don't really support a BABIP or HR/FB elevated to this level. Even if he'll never repeat his excellent 2014 season, he's doing a darn good impression of it this year, even if the outcomes haven't done him many favors.

You don't have to run out and add McHugh right away, but I'd monitor his progress through the rest of the month. It's better late than never for regression to hit, and McHugh could help fantasy squads in the home stretch, especially when he could face the Angels, Athletics, and Rays as many as five more times.

Robbie Ray, ARI
23% owned, via Fleaflicker

If you had to name the top five (qualified) starting pitchers by xFIP, could you? Probably not. Because if Robbie Ray wasn't on your shortlist, you got it wrong.

I'm doing with McHugh what I already did with Ray. Ray has been putting up crazy numbers for pretty much the entire season, yet his outcomes haven't matched the peripherals, with his ERA (4.31) more than a full run higher than his xFIP (3.29). It was worse before his three most recent starts, during which he struck out 22 and walked only three hitters while allowed on three earned runs in 19 innings. Because before those three starts, his ERA was almost a run and a half higher than his xFIP, the latter of which only dropped nine points, from 3.38.

The 13 strikeouts have everyone's attention now but, as aforementioned, Ray has been punishing hitters for the better part of the last three months. To attest: he has struck out at least seven hitters in more than half his starts and at least six hitters in all but five. The only issue is hitters have been punishing Ray in return. Even after some recent good luck, his .351 BABIP and 15.1% HR/FB reek of bad luck -- or poor contact management skills.

It might be a bit of both; there's evidence that Ray's lack of a third pitch make him especially vulnerable the third time through the order, perhaps limiting his short-to-medium-term upside. Ray is basically doing his best Yu Darvish impression, though, so how bad could that really be?

Ray is already starting to benefit from the regression pendulum swinging back in his favor. Unlike McHugh, Ray has massive upside and might be one of the best starting pitchers in the game through September. Alas, unlike McHugh, don't sleep on Ray -- he should be owned in pretty much every league, no matter what you think of his ERA.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!