RADIO
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.
The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2015 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.
The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, previous season stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a true Keeper Value for each player.
| TIER | SCORE | EXPLANATION |
| 1 | >75 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT. |
| 2 | 50-75 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 25-49 | You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 4 | 0-24 | Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you are allowed a large quantity of Keeper selections. |
| 5 | -99-0 | Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here. |
| 6 | <-100 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
Obviously every league will have different ADP, especially keeper leagues when you consider the amount of keepers that are taken out of the draft pool each season. But since there is no way to track ADP specific to all Keeper Leagues, we use standard league ADP. If you want to check out the scores for your players in a specific-custom league, you can follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB. These fantastic player profiles are brought to you from our very own Ben Ruppert. If you are ever in need of fantasy advice, or just great entertainment, follow him on Twitter @Ben_Ruppert_21
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Top 10 RB Keeper Values
1. David Johnson, ARI (10th Round ADP)- Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 101.90
Johnson had an amazing rookie season last year, even in his limited time starting. According to footballoutsiders, he finished fourth in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and eighth in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) in his rookie season. DVOA (long story short) measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. DYAR measures how the next player in line would have done with the opportunities compared to how you did with them. He also made outstanding plays as a receiver, finishing sixth in receiving DYAR among running backs and averaging 4.0 more yards after the catch than expected given where he caught those passes. As a potential 10th-round keeper, fantasy owners in keeper leagues got gigantic bargain in DJ. Enjoy the ride, you've found one of the highest keeper values this season.
2. Todd Gurley, LA (5th Round)- Score: 98.50
When Todd Gurley was able to play for the Rams from Week 4 onwards, he was a one man wrecking ball. One of the very few options in the Rams offensive attack, he averaged 19 carries, 91 yards, and nearly a touchdown per game rushing as a rookie. He averaged 15 fantasy points per game from Week 4 to the end of the season, which placed him second among all RBs. This all came after Gurley missed all of training camp and the first two weeks of the regular season while recovering from a torn ACL, which was the main reason why fantasy players waited until the fifth round to draft the 10th overall pick by the Rams. Those who snagged him were handsomely rewarded with his elite level of production. It is possible Gurley gets 20-25 carries a game when fully healthy this season, while getting more involved in the passing game. Gurley is an absolute stud.
3. Devonta Freeman, ATL (8th Round)- Score: 89.12
Devonta Freeman had a career year last season, racking up 1,634 yards from scrimmage (average of 108.9 total yards per game) off of 338 total touches, which is an average of 22.5 per game (second in the NFL behind Le’Veon bell who only played six games last season). He was tied for the league lead in total touchdowns at 14, and was the best among all running backs at finding the endzone. At this draft slot, Freeman owners get a huge draft day boost having an RB1 held in the eighth round, when he is a second round pick in standard 2016 drafts, and deservedly so.
4. Thomas Rawls, SEA (17th Round)- Score: 84.11
After incumbent running back Marshawn Lynch went down with injury, the Seahawks were left scrambling to figure out how to replace their stud running back. Once they let Thomas Rawls handle the bulk of the carries, they never had to look back. From Week 3 on, Rawls rushed for 830 yards on 147 attempts (5.6 yards per rush) with four touchdowns. He also added a receiving touchdown, though his strong suit is rushing the ball more than a pass catching back. This season, Rawls comes in as the number one running back on a team that ran the ball the third most times in the league last year. Even with offseason surgery, Rawls came into camp in fantastic shape. Head coach Pete Carrol was quoted saying "I don’t think there’s anybody in better shape than Thomas. I think he put himself in great, great condition." Taking him in drafts in the fourth may end up being a steal for draftees, let alone keeping him in the late rounds.
5. Doug Martin, TB (8th Round)- Score: 81.62
If there were any questions about Doug Martin and his ability, he’s completely squashed them. Last season Dougie Fresh found the mojo he had during his standout rookie campaign. Playing in all 16 games last season, he gained 1,673 yards from scrimmage with seven total TDs. This is even with backup running back Charles Sims taking the occasional series and catching 51 balls, and gaining 1,090 yards from scrimmage as well. Sims spelling Martin from time to time helps keep Martin fresh and healthy, allowing him to rush for 10+ yards a whopping 33 times, which was second most in the league behind Adrian Peterson. If you were able to snag him in the eighth round last year, you have yourself an RB1 at an excellent draft slot.
6. Dion Lewis, NE (17th Round)- Score: 67.02
Lewis was one of the top backs in standard and PPR leagues before tearing his ACL in November, ending his season. Before that, he averaged 12 touches for 88 total yards and scored a touchdown in four of his seven games. This includes his last game when he left early due to his injury. He averaged 4.8 yards per rush (7th among RBs) and 10.8 yards per reception (3rd among RBs). He is one of the most elusive backs in the league, with his ability to juke and cut-and-go, he is difficult for defenders to bring down. The Patriots are not at all afraid to call upon Lewis in big situations, even with Blount healthy and ready to go. He may miss a game or two while healing, but even if he does he is completely worth the late round pick it would cost you to keep him, especially in PPR leagues.
7. Jeremy Langford, CHI (17th Round)- Score: 66.22
With Matt Forte battling injuries and on his way out the door, the Bears decided it was time to see what they had in rookie running back Jeremy Langford. From Week 8 onwards, Langford gained 751 total yards (75.1 per game) with five touchdowns. He was able to haul in 20 receptions, highlighted by his seven catch, 109 yard game which included an 83 yard TD scamper. In his junior and senior years at Michigan State, he gained over 1,500 yards each season with an average of 20 TDs per season. You may have your doubts about Langford, but you could do a lot worse in the 17th round of a draft than a starting RB with plenty of upside to be a solid RB2.
8. Matt Jones, WAS (15th Round)- Score: 64.92
Matt Jones has an excellent opportunity this year to be a three-down back in a solid offense led by Kirk Cousins. Jones accumulated nearly 800 yards from scrimmage last season as Alfred Morris’ backup. The rookie averaged 16 yards per reception last season, highlighted by a 78-yard play against the New Orleans Saints in Week 10. His excellent pass blocking ability coupled with his ability to catch passes means he has a legitimate chance to be a three-down workhorse in 2016. ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have "seen what they wanted" from Matt Jones this spring. If Jones can capitalize on all of this potential he has in the situation he’s been put in he will be a huge bargain this year, and as a keeper in the 15th round, that value is far too good to pass up.
9. Lamar Miller, HOU (3rd Round)- Score: 64.61
Lamar Miller will bring a first round return on investment this season. He is a stud running back that vastly underused in Miami’s offense last season. He received 12 or fewer carries in nine of the 16 games the Dolphins played last season. Over the past two seasons, his 4.81 YPC is better than stud RBs Le’Veon Bell (4.76), Doug Martin (4.49), and Adrian Peterson (4.48). Last season with Miami, he set career highs in receptions (47), receiving yards (397), and yards per reception (8.4). On top of his obvious offensive prowess, he also was rated by Pro Football Focus as a top-three pass blocking RB. He now joins a Houston Texans squad that is eager to reestablish the run game after finishing 15th in rushing yards last season, while churning out the fifth most rushing attempts. If you have the opportunity to keep him below first round value, do it.
10. Danny Woodhead, SD (12th Round)- Score: 43.11
Danny Woodhead has always been an excellent pass catching back, but last year he took his game to another level. He set career highs in targets (106), receptions (80), receiving yards (755), and total touchdowns (9). He also chipped in with 96 rushes for 336 yards. In the 12th round of drafts, Woodhead was an absolute steal and surely contributed to many people (especially in PPR leagues) going deep into their fantasy playoffs. After suffering an ankle injury earlier in camp, Woodhead is back at 100% ready to contribute. The Chargers attempted the second most passes in the league last season, and things likely won’t be different this season. If you can keep him in the 12th round of drafts, do so knowing you have a borderline RB2/definite flex play in standard, and a borderline RB1/bona-fide RB2 in PPR formats.
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