It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

Our next article comes from Edward Sutelan (@RedsGuy1869) and Harris Yudin (@hayudi18), both of whom are staff writers and editors. Ed defends Jeremy Hill of his hometown Bengals, while Harris makes the case for Jay Ajayi of the Dolphins to break out. Feel free to reach out to both writers with questions or opinions.

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Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - Edward Sutelan

As a Bengals fan, I was all set thinking, ‘finally, the Bengals are moving on to the next round!’ I was so confident, I even tweeted it out before the fact. And then Jeremy Hill was given the football and promptly fumbled it on the first play of what could’ve been the final drive of the game. Maybe my tweet jinxed things, maybe not. All I know is that Hill’s fumble sure didn’t help.

But looking at his stats, fumbling is by far the biggest concern with Hill. Though tied for eighth among running backs for most fumbles in 2015, the top Bengals running back is also tied for the lead with 13 rushing touchdowns last season. Standing at 6’1”, 235 pounds, Hill is four inches and 30 pounds bigger than the Bengals’ other back, Giovani Bernard. Even with a second running back giving him constant competition for playing time and a Pro-Bowl tight end who finished tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns, Hill still ranked sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, fourth from inside the 10 and third from inside the five. How many red zone touches did Jay Ajayi finish on the season? 10. And that wasn’t just because of the presence of Lamar Miller, who himself only had 19 red zone rushing attempts. It was because of the Dolphins’ reluctance to run with the ball inside the 20-yard line.

After averaging 5.1 yards per carry in his rookie season, Hill managed only 3.6 average yards per carry in 2015. However, in spite of his reduced numbers, the 23-year-old running back was still called on to make 69 more attempts than Bernard. Also indicative of the higher level of trust in Hill was the fact that he received 12 carries in the Bengals’ lone postseason game while Bernard managed only six. Hill rewarded that trust with an improved 3.8 yards per carry in the second half of the season after averaging only 3.3 YPC in the first half. Over his final seven games (including the postseason), Hill averaged 3.97 yards per carry— 4.45 if you exclude a sub par Week 14 performance against the 49ers.

Another promising aspect of Hill and his probable future success is that stout offensive line that stands in front of him. ESPN’s Field Yates rated Cincinnati’s offensive line as the fourth best in the NFL, led by 2012 first-round pick Kevin Zeitler and Pro-Bowler Andrew Whitworth. With a strong O-Line in front of him, Hill should have no problems rebounding and putting up numbers closer to those of his 2014 season.

As long as Bernard is in Cincinnati, there will always be a bit of a fire under Hill. However, fantasy owners should understand that he will get the bulk of the carries down in the red zone and is very capable of cashing in on his opportunities. With 467 team rushing attempts in 2015 (seventh most in the NFL) and two starting wide receivers in Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu departing, the Bengals are sure to lean heavy once again on their rushing attack. Compare that to the Dolphins’ 32nd-best 344 rushing attempts and you have a very easy choice of which running back is in a better situation. Ajayi may now be the starter for the Dolphins and a guy likely to catch his fair share of passes, but Hill is an established red-zone threat and a starter for a team that rushes the football as much as any team in the NFL. 

 

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - Harris Yudin

To be honest, I’m not overly excited about either Jay Ajayi or Jeremy Hill as an RB2. Both have risk, so having either as your teams RB3 would be more palatable. Both are prone to fumbling the football, and both are coming off a season in which they averaged under four yards per carry. Despite that, they both have the upside to warrant being drafted in the early fifth round.

Widely considered to be one of the more talented backs in the 2015 NFL Draft, Ajayi became a fifth-round selection by the Dolphins, as concerns over his knee caused his stock to drop. However, it has been reported that he has not had any knee issues since 2011.

Ajayi failed to pick up 50 yards in a single game last season serving as Lamar Miller’s backup. However, with Miller now in Houston, Ajayi is expected to begin the year as the lead back in Miami. In his junior year at Boise State, he totaled 1,823 rushing yards (5.3 yards per carry), 535 receiving yards and 28 total touchdowns— although he did lose four fumbles.

The Dolphins’ offensive line received a major boost this offseason when former Ole Miss left tackle Laremy Tunsil fell into their laps at No. 13 overall. Tunsil is likely to move inside to one of the guard positions, with Brandon Albert and Ju’Waun James on the outside. Mike Pouncey, a three-time Pro-Bowl center, anchors an O-Line that could be really strong if healthy.

It’s true that the Dolphins sat dead last in football in rushing attempts a year ago, but Miller was one of just two players with at least 180 rushes and 45 receptions— Devonta Freeman was the other. Additionally, with a much improved defense — they added Kiko Alonso and Mario Williams to play alongside Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake — Adam Gase’s team could find itself in a position to run some time off the clock more often.

The greatest threat to Ajayi’s breakout season is rookie Kenyan Drake. Drake was the third running back taken in the 2016 draft, falling to the Dolphins in the third round. He is an explosive playmaker who will likely serve as a change-of-pace back and can be a help on special teams. He had to play behind Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry at Alabama last year, and while the 22-year-old Drake may develop into something more one day, it is unlikely that he will see his role increase this upcoming season— at least not if Ajayi performs at a high level.

Jeremy Hill amassed 1,124 yards on the ground as a rookie in 2014, but could never seem to get going in 2015. He became more of a goal line back, accumulating 11 rushing touchdowns but picking up just 3.6 yards per carry. Hill also had just 79 receiving yards on 15 catches, while Ajayi picked up 90 yards on just seven receptions— as a backup.

Hill is still a safe bet to be the goal line back in the Bengals high scoring offense this season, but I fully expect the more talented Bernard to take control of the bulk of the touches. Ajayi’s fantasy production is far from guaranteed, but he has more of a grasp on a starting role and could thrive as a dual-threat back under Gase.

Even in standard formats, Ajayi’s lack of competition might give him a slight edge over Hill, and that gap could widen a fair amount in PPR leagues.

 

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