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Welcome back to RotoBaller's midseason rankings update. Today, we'll be taking a look at the top half of the outfield, with Part 2 coming tomorrow. These rankings were compiled by myself, Nick Mariano, and Bill Dubiel, and any players ranked too high or low are definitely the fault of my colleagues. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.
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2016 Fantasy Baseball Midseason Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Part 1)
Tier One
Remember when people were suggesting that Bryce Harper had surpassed Trout as the best player in baseball, either real or fantasy (or both)? Yeah…about that. Trout has cut his strikeout rate, started stealing bases again, and gotten better against curveballs and in deep counts. He currently has a 44.0 fWAR for his career. That makes him better than all but 249 players in the history of baseball, and he’s not even 25 years old yet. WAR isn’t perfect, of course, but you get the point. As D’Angelo Barksdale once said, “The king stay the king.” It’s Mike Trout’s world. We’re all just living in it.
Tier Two
Kris Bryant
Bryce Harper
Mookie Betts
Starling Marte
George Springer
Carlos Gonzalez
Giancarlo Stanton
Ryan Braun
Not to say Harper’s not a generational talent himself. Even in a disappointing sequel to his MVP season, Harper is on pace for 35 homers and 24 stolen bases, and walking more often than he strikes out. His BABIP is also a good 70 points below his career mark at the moment. Speaking of BABIP, Bryant’s predictably seen some regression there, but cutting down significantly on his swings and misses has allowed him to improve upon his phenomenal rookie year. In 265 fewer plate appearances, he’s already nearly equaled his home run total from last season, and only Josh Donaldson has tallied more R+RBI than Bryant’s 138. Betts is third. He’s on pace to set career bests in all five standard categories. You want to talk about career bests? How about Marte having 30 stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and stealing 30 in the first half this year? That’s helped make up for his expected power decline. Springer’s not running as much as we might have hoped, but he’s stayed healthy so far and headed for a 30 homer campaign. Stanton’s recent struggles were well-documented, but he’s still piled up counting stats. Gonzalez and Braun may be on the wrong side of 30 with long injury histories, but for now, they remain among the best outfielders in fantasy baseball.
Tier Three
Gregory Polanco
Wil Myers
Ian Desmond
Yoenis Cespedes
Nelson Cruz
Chris Davis
Mark Trumbo
Charlie Blackmon
Jose Bautista
Andrew McCutchen
After some growing pains, Polanco has become the all-around player many thought he could be. After some literal pains (mostly in the wrists) cost him the better part of the last two seasons, Myers has regained the form that helped him win Rookie of the Year honors in 2013. We haven’t had a 30/30 season at the MLB level since 2012, but Myers has an honest shot at it. That would make him the second first baseman to ever accomplish the feat, after Jeff Bagwell. Desmond shook off an atrocious 2015 and an even worse start to this year and is on his way to a career season while making a seamless transition from shortstop to center field. Plenty of people expected Cespedes to fall off from the torrid pace he set in his first two months at a Met last season. He’s somehow been even better so far in 2016. Cruz is gunning for his third straight 40 homer season at age 36. Davis led MLB in homers two of the last three years, and he’s second on his own team right now to Trumbo, whose 28 lead everyone at the break. Blackmon hasn’t run as wild as he did last year, though he’s having his best season by most other measures. While it’s true that Bautista and McCutchen weren’t their usual dominant selves in the first half, their talent and track records make it difficult to rank them much lower.
Tier Four
Marcell Ozuna
Stephen Piscotty
Brandon Belt
Carlos Beltran
Christian Yelich
Ben Zobrist
Jay Bruce
Adam Jones
Jackie Bradley
Miguel Sano
Ozuna has bounced back in a big way from his difficult 2015, while teammate Yelich continues to be a terrific hitter despite not flashing much power. Piscotty and Belt are having similar seasons. Beltran, at age 39, is on pace for more home runs than he’s hit since he was 29. Fellow graybeard Zobrist has rediscovered his pop while showcasing his typically excellent plate discipline. He’s on a 110-run pace. Bruce may be a horrid defender, but he’s been quite good at the plate so far. Whichever contender finally trades for him will hope he avoids the second-half swoon that capsized his 2015. Jones is a virtual lock for his fifth straight 25 HR season and figures to top 100 runs and 100 RBI for good measure. Bradley’s perceived value was at its nadir a year ago; now, he’s deservedly starting in the All-Star Game. Sano started slow and then suffered an injury right when he was finding a groove, but he remains one of the game’s most exciting young talents.
Tier Five
Justin Upton
Adam Duvall
Matt Kemp
Dexter Fowler
Odubel Herrera
Melvin Upton Jr.
J.D. Martinez
Kole Calhoun
Lorenzo Cain
Jacoby Ellsbury
Shin-Soo Choo
What kind of odds do you think you could’ve gotten in Vegas back in March if you’d been able to bet on which Upton brother would be better in 2016? Justin’s Tigers career couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start, but he’s always been a streaky hitter and it’s not unreasonable to expect a big second half as he continues to adjust to a new league. Meanwhile, the Artist Formerly Known as Bossman Junior has resurrected his career with a vintage performance. He’s the only player in baseball with 15 HR and 20 SB at the break. Duvall’s a one-trick pony, but plenty of people would love to mash taters like he does. Fowler was headed for a career year before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Herrera’s more than doubled his walk rate, trimmed his whiffs and tapped into more power after a surprisingly excellent rookie year. Martinez is working his way back from a broken elbow and would rank significantly higher if that weren’t the case. Cain is on the shelf as well, though his performance before the injury was somewhat disappointing. Did you know that Calhoun is 17th among all outfielders in fWAR since the start of 2014? Ellsbury has managed to avoid the disabled list, mostly because I drafted Aaron Hicks in a bunch of leagues. You’re welcome, Ellsbury owners. Avoiding injury is one thing Choo hasn’t done this season, but he’s been excellent when on the field.
Tier Six
Khris Davis
Mike Napoli
Nomar Mazara
Josh Reddick
Matt Holliday
Hanley Ramirez
Danny Valencia
Michael Saunders
Adam Eaton
Billy Hamilton
It feels like Napoli isn’t getting a lot of pub for his fantastic first half. Sure, the average is middling, but the counting stats have more than made up for it. Davis offers a similar profile. Mazara’s scuffled badly of late, but remember that he’s barely old enough to drink legally. Kid’s gonna be special, and he’s got the talent to successfully adjust in the second half. Reddick’s hot start to the year was derailed by injury, as usual. Saunders, meanwhile, has managed to avoid the trainer’s room and is well on his way to a career year. It’s weird to see Holliday hitting .240, but he’s at least recovered the power he lost last season and you have to figure the average will climb. His contract still sucks, but Year 2 in Boston has gone a lot better for HanRam. Valencia picked up right where he left off last year and figures to be an asset to whatever contender acquires him later this month. Let’s just forget that I floated the idea that Eaton might be a better draft value than Mookie Betts at one point this offseason. At least my enduring skepticism toward the Hamburglar has been valid.
Midseason Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings
| Rank | Player Name | Team | Tier |
| 1 | Mike Trout | LAA | 1 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | CHC | 2 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | WSH | 2 |
| 4 | Mookie Betts | BOS | 2 |
| 5 | Starling Marte | PIT | 2 |
| 6 | George Springer | HOU | 2 |
| 7 | Carlos Gonzalez | COL | 2 |
| 8 | Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | 2 |
| 9 | Ryan Braun | MIL | 2 |
| 10 | Gregory Polanco | PIT | 3 |
| 11 | Wil Myers | SD | 3 |
| 12 | Ian Desmond | TEX | 3 |
| 13 | Yoenis Cespedes | NYM | 3 |
| 14 | Nelson Cruz | SEA | 3 |
| 15 | Chris Davis | BAL | 3 |
| 16 | Mark Trumbo | BAL | 3 |
| 17 | Charlie Blackmon | COL | 3 |
| 18 | Jose Bautista | TOR | 3 |
| 19 | Andrew McCutchen | PIT | 3 |
| 20 | Marcell Ozuna | MIA | 4 |
| 21 | Stephen Piscotty | STL | 4 |
| 22 | Brandon Belt | SF | 4 |
| 23 | Carlos Beltran | NYY | 4 |
| 24 | Christian Yelich | MIA | 4 |
| 25 | Ben Zobrist | CHC | 4 |
| 26 | Jay Bruce | CIN | 4 |
| 27 | Adam Jones | BAL | 4 |
| 28 | Jackie Bradley | BOS | 4 |
| 29 | Miguel Sano | MIN | 4 |
| 30 | Justin Upton | DET | 5 |
| 31 | Adam Duvall | CIN | 5 |
| 32 | Matt Kemp | SD | 5 |
| 33 | Dexter Fowler | CHC | 5 |
| 34 | Odubel Herrera | PHI | 5 |
| 35 | Melvin Upton Jr. | SD | 5 |
| 36 | J.D. Martinez | DET | 5 |
| 37 | Kole Calhoun | LAA | 5 |
| 38 | Lorenzo Cain | KC | 5 |
| 39 | Jacoby Ellsbury | NYY | 5 |
| 40 | Shin-Soo Choo | TEX | 5 |
| 41 | Khris Davis | OAK | 6 |
| 42 | Mike Napoli | CLE | 6 |
| 43 | Nomar Mazara | TEX | 6 |
| 44 | Josh Reddick | OAK | 6 |
| 45 | Matt Holliday | STL | 6 |
| 46 | Hanley Ramirez | BOS | 6 |
| 47 | Danny Valencia | OAK | 6 |
| 48 | Michael Saunders | TOR | 6 |
| 49 | Adam Eaton | CWS | 6 |
| 50 | Billy Hamilton | CIN | 6 |
| 51 | Leonys Martin | SEA | 7 |
| 52 | Yasiel Puig | LAD | 7 |
| 53 | Corey Dickerson | TB | 7 |
| 54 | Trayce Thompson | LAD | 7 |
| 55 | Evan Gattis | HOU | 7 |
| 56 | Michael Brantley | CLE | 7 |
| 57 | Melky Cabrera | CWS | 7 |
| 58 | Yasmany Tomas | ARI | 7 |
| 59 | Kevin Pillar | TOR | 7 |
| 60 | Jason Heyward | CHC | 7 |
| 61 | Joc Pederson | LAD | 7 |
| 62 | Ben Revere | WSH | 7 |
| 63 | Curtis Granderson | NYM | 8 |
| 64 | Brandon Moss | STL | 8 |
| 65 | Rajai Davis | CLE | 8 |
| 66 | Steven Souza | TB | 8 |
| 67 | Brett Gardner | NYY | 8 |
| 68 | Colby Rasmus | HOU | 8 |
| 69 | Jayson Werth | WSH | 8 |
| 70 | Alex Gordon | KC | 8 |
| 71 | Gerardo Parra | COL | 8 |
| 72 | Steve Pearce | TB | 8 |
| 73 | Cameron Maybin | DET | 8 |
| 74 | David Peralta | ARI | 8 |
| 75 | Nick Markakis | ATL | 8 |
| 76 | Josh Harrison | PIT | 8 |
| 77 | Michael Conforto | NYM | 8 |
| 78 | Denard Span | SF | 9 |
| 79 | Hunter Pence | SF | 9 |
| 80 | Angel Pagan | SF | 9 |
| 81 | Ender Inciarte | ATL | 9 |
| 82 | Carlos Gomez | HOU | 9 |
| 83 | Billy Burns | OAK | 9 |
| 84 | Domingo Santana | MIL | 9 |
| 85 | Franklin Gutierrez | SEA | 9 |
| 86 | Byron Buxton | MIN | 9 |
| 87 | Derek Dietrich | MIA | 9 |
| 88 | Jon Jay | SD | 9 |
| 89 | John Jaso | PIT | 9 |
| 90 | Jarrod Dyson | KC | 9 |
| 91 | Ryan Rua | TEX | 10 |
| 92 | Randal Grichuk | STL | 10 |
| 93 | Kevin Kiermaier | TB | 10 |
| 94 | Max Kepler | MIN | 10 |
| 95 | Mallex Smith | ATL | 10 |
| 96 | Jorge Soler | CHC | 10 |
| 97 | Brad Miller | TB | 10 |
| 98 | Jarrett Parker | SF | 10 |
| 99 | Blake Swihart | BOS | 10 |
| 100 | Brandon Drury | ARI | 10 |
| 101 | Avisail Garcia | CWS | 10 |
| 102 | Howie Kendrick | LAD | 10 |
| 103 | Kolten Wong | STL | 10 |
| 104 | Eddie Rosario | MIN | 10 |
| 105 | Danny Santana | MIN | 11 |
| 106 | Chris Owings | ARI | 11 |
| 107 | Tyler Naquin | CLE | 11 |
| 108 | Austin Jackson | CWS | 11 |
| 109 | Norichika Aoki | SEA | 11 |
| 110 | Tommy Pham | STL | 11 |
| 111 | Aaron Hicks | NYY | 11 |
| 112 | Michael Taylor | WSH | 11 |
| 113 | Coco Crisp | OAK | 11 |
| 114 | Joey Rickard | BAL | 11 |
| 115 | Socrates Brito | ARI | 11 |
| 116 | Andre Ethier | LAD | 11 |
| 117 | Delino DeShields | TEX | 11 |
| 118 | Enrique Hernandez | LAD | 11 |
| 119 | Carl Crawford | FA | 11 |
| 120 | Adonis Garcia | ATL | 11 |
| 121 | Dalton Pompey | TOR | 11 |
| 122 | Jeremy Hazelbaker | STL | 11 |
| 123 | Brock Holt | BOS | 11 |
| 124 | Desmond Jennings | TB | 11 |
| 125 | Anthony Gose | DET | 11 |
| 126 | Rusney Castillo | BOS | 11 |
| 127 | Chris Coghlan | CHC | 11 |
| 128 | Paulo Orlando | KC | 11 |
| 129 | Oswaldo Arcia | TB | 11 |
| 130 | Scott Schebler | CIN | 11 |
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