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2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher (Part 1)

Oh yes, it’s time to peek in at the beautiful landscape for starting pitching heading into the 2016 fantasy baseball season. A brief note, our rankings were submitted on December 6th before the full weight of the winter meetings came down. These initial rankings won’t reflect the moves of guys like Zack Greinke to ARI or Jeff Samardzija to SF, so be aware and come back next month for updates. Starting pitchers have so many factors going into them, and there are so many of them, that our rankings were bound to have quite a few disagreements.

Though every position has some people who are question marks due to injury, there’s nothing that can replicate the volatility of a pitcher and his arm. There are also a decent amount of pitchers who are returning to action in 2016 after missing most or all of 2015 due to injury. You’ll certainly notice our range of opinions on each of them. There’s plenty to look at here, so let’s just jump right in.

In case you missed it, our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard is loaded with lots more rankings, all in one easy place. We have tiers for every MLB position, prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper analysis.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher

Kersh is numero uno, shocker. The first pitcher gone across the board will be Clayton Kershaw. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Jake Arrieta round out everyone’s top four (in that order except for Brad, who has Arrieta 2, Scherzer 3, and Sale 4). Greinke is everyone’s #5 except for Kyle, who is higher on younger guys like Jacob deGrom, Jose Fernandez, and Gerrit Cole (as well as the veteran David Price).

We see two relatively large differences in opinion from Kyle against the rest of us on Felix Hernandez and Gerrit Cole. He is much lower than we are on Felix, and much higher than we are on Gerrit. Honestly, I get it. Felix came out strong in 2015, firing his only two 10+K games in two of his first three starts. He had four starts where he gave up seven or more earned runs (including one ugly day in Houston where he gave up eight earned in one third of an inning, and if you remove that start from his year his ERA goes from 3.53 to 3.17). Gerrit Cole put in work in 2015 and improved in many ways, notably cutting his BB/9 figure from 2.61 in 2014 to 1.90. His BABIP and LOB% stayed in line with his 2014 totals so it isn’t like the regression monster is bearing down on him. The only blip might be his HR/FB numbers, which could explain his xFIP being 3.16 (compared to the FIP of 2.66). Be aware, but there's some context for you.

Things play out pretty nicely for the rest of the top 25 with the exception of the polarizing Stephen Strasburg. Anyone shocked that he might be someone who stirs the pot a bit? He was letdown personified in the first half of 2015 (5.16 ERA), but if you stuck it out or bought low you were rewarded with a pretty darn good second half (1.90 ERA). He showed much sharper command later on after he presumably dealt with his injuries and mechanical woes, as he walked 18 people in his 61 first half innings, while he only walked eight in his 66 second half innings. He still pitches on a good Washington team in a division that gets to pick on the N.L. East, so I'm buying and rolling the dice for that upside.

We don’t need to go too far out from here to see another point of contention. While Max and I both have Tanaka around 20, Kyle has Tanaka at 30 with Brad being the lowest at 39. There is a fair amount of concern here regarding his durability as well as a bit of a decline in production since he came out firing when he started his MLB career. Obviously Yankee Stadium isn’t the most fun place for a pitcher either, let alone facing those AL East bruisers. I imagine most of the disparity here comes from optimism vs. pessimism regarding health, but control and speed on the fastball comes into play as well.

Speaking of optimism vs. pessimism regarding health, let’s bring in a third option: total shenanigans. While my three colleagues have Adam Wainwright pegged at around 40, I have him slotted in at 17 right now. Cardinals pitchers have been very good to me (and everyone) over the years, but this isn’t exactly a question of Wainwright’s skill so much as him not being the youngest guy (he’s 34) who is bouncing back from pretty much missing the entirety of 2015 due to injury. I have a lot of faith in Wainwright, and I trust injuries that aren’t arm or back/core related to be a lot more bankable. The Cardinal pitching love may have carried over to my Jaime Garcia rank as well. I will readily own that.

Stay tuned, as tomorrow will bring part two of the starting pitcher rankings breakdown. We'll look further down the table at some names that warrant our attention. For now, here are those juicy rankings you know you've all been clamoring for.

 

Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Composite
Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1 1
Max Scherzer 3 2 2 2 2.25
Chris Sale 4 3 3 3 3.25
Jake Arrieta 2 4 4 4 3.5
Zack Greinke 5 5 9 5 6
Jose Fernandez 7 6 7 6 6.5
Jacob deGrom 10 8 5 7 7.5
David Price 9 7 6 8 7.5
Dallas Keuchel 6 9 11 9 8.75
Madison Bumgarner 11 11 10 10 10.5
Felix Hernandez 8 10 18 11 11.75
Gerrit Cole 14 14 8 13 12.25
Chris Archer 15 13 12 14 13.5
Corey Kluber 13 12 14 16 13.75
Noah Syndergaard 12 15 17 18 15.5
Matt Harvey 17 16 15 15 15.75
Stephen Strasburg 18 22 13 12 16.25
Carlos Carrasco 16 17 16 20 17.25
Jon Lester 19 21 19 25 21
Cole Hamels 24 24 21 19 22
Yu Darvish 25 19 22 22 22
Sonny Gray 22 18 24 24 22
Johnny Cueto 20 25 20 26 22.75
Carlos Martinez 21 27 23 23 23.5
Tyson Ross 23 23 26 32 26
Danny Salazar 27 26 25 27 26.25
Masahiro Tanaka 39 20 30 21 27.5
Francisco Liriano 26 30 28 29 28.25
Marcus Stroman 30 32 27 28 29.25
Jordan Zimmermann 28 28 33 34 30.75
Michael Wacha 37 29 35 30 32.75
Adam Wainwright 40 36 41 17 33.5
Luis Severino 29 31 43 33 34
Scott Kazmir 36 33 37 39 36.25
Jose Quintana 31 41 31 45 37
Michael Pineda 52 35 32 31 37.5
Garrett Richards 38 38 39 37 38
Jake Odorizzi 32 42 38 42 38.5
Lance McCullers 34 51 29 41 38.75
Patrick Corbin 43 46 34 35 39.5
Shelby Miller 51 34 54 36 43.75
John Lackey 33 48 56 44 45.25
Steven Matz 64 39 40 39 45.5
Gio Gonzalez 44 45 50 46 46.25
Alex Cobb 41 43 46 58 47
Justin Verlander 45 49 51 43 47
Hyun-Jin Ryu 42 44 45 59 47.5
Yordano Ventura 40 47 53 52 48
Jeff Samardzija 35 60 48 49 48
Collin McHugh 46 50 52 51 49.75
Clay Buchholz 53 53 49 48 50.75
Joe Ross 89 40 36 38 50.75
Jaime Garcia 48 52 64 40 51
Hisashi Iwakuma 55 55 42 53 51.25
Andrew Cashner 50 37 69 50 51.5
Raisel Iglesias 60 58 47 47 53
James Shields 61 41 58 54 53.5
Drew Smyly 66 46 57 55 56
Taijuan Walker 70 67 44 56 59.25
Eduardo Rodriguez 58 57 62 62 59.75
Kyle Hendricks 62 63 55 60 60
Brett Anderson 57 56 70 61 61
Wei-Yin Chen 54 54 72 64 61
Nathan Eovaldi 47 74 60 65 61.5
Robbie Ray 56 69 61 63 62.25
Carlos Rodon 71 68 59 57 63.75
Andrew Heaney 59 65 65 68 64.25
Julio Teheran 63 61 74 66 66
Jason Hammel 72 70 63 71 69
Aaron Nola 68 62 73 75 69.5
Jimmy Nelson 69 66 76 67 69.5
Anibal Sanchez 67 78 67 69 70.25
Marco Estrada 65 64 77 76 70.5
Ian Kennedy 77 75 78 72 75.5
Alex Wood 81 77 68 81 76.75
Anthony DeSclafani 86 91 66 70 78.25
Kevin Gausman 83 76 79 84 80.5
Henry Owens 88 71 91 74 81
Trevor Bauer 95 72 85 83 83.75
Mike Fiers 71 93 75 97 84
Mike Leake 84 80 87 88 84.75
Ervin Santana 80 86 99 80 86.25
Jesse Hahn 105 59 109 79 88
Derek Holland 73 85 97 100 88.75
Edinson Volquez 82 83 94 98 89.25
Erik Johnson 101 82 90 89 90.5
Taylor Jungmann 109 90 88 85 93
Mat Latos 112 95 82 86 93.75
Ubaldo Jimenez 90 98 93 95 94
Chris Heston 106 87 101 82 94
Jerad Eickhoff 96 99 95 87 94.25
James Paxton 85 102 96 96 94.75
Jake Peavy 111 96 84 93 96
Phil Hughes 110 89 103 92 98.5
J.A. Happ 92 71 78 ---
Erasmo Ramirez 94 80 73 ---
Nate Karns 79 83 91 ---
Wade Miley 74 97 92 ---
Kyle Gibson 75 100 99 ---
Tyler Duffey 78 81 111 ---
Yovani Gallardo 91 88 102 ---
Zack Wheeler 104 84 105 ---
Josh Tomlin 87 101 108 ---
Chris Tillman 92 103 115 ---
Rubby de la Rosa 100 100 104 ---
Danny Duffy 107 102 114 ---
Kris Medlen 73 89 ---
Drew Hutchison 81 77 ---
Rick Porcello 76 98 ---
Jesse Chavez 86 94 ---
Joe Kelly 79 110 ---
Daniel Norris 97 104 ---
Nicholas Tropeano 93 112 ---
Matt Shoemaker 94 113 ---
Jonathan Gray 99 108 ---
CC Sabathia 108 116 ---
Hector Santiago 114 119 ---
Wily Peralta 115 105 ---
Chase Anderson 113 107 ---
Matt Cain 90 ---
Jeremy Hellickson 98 ---
Matt Boyd 102 ---
R.A. Dickey 106 ---
Mike Foltynewicz 106 ---
Jorge de la Rosa 107 ---
Brett Oberholtzer 116 ---
Trevor May 117 ---
Doug Fister 118 ---
Martin Perez 120 ---

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