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Non-closing relievers, with some exceptions, have limited value in most fantasy formats. As a result, they are often overlooked by many owners. However, a quality set-up man can help your ratios, boost your strikeout totals, and even vulture a few wins or saves. If your league counts holds, all the better.
That's without acknowledging the high turnover rate for closers, perhaps the strongest argument in favor of paying more attention to the guys who aren't in the catbird seat. They're just one injury or slump from grabbing the baton and running with it. Most of these guys don't have the job right now, but they could be among the best closers in fantasy if they're given a shot.
Editor's note: For more preseason draft value and sleeper advice, check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.
Relievers to Target
This Kansas City Royals fireballer puts the bull in bullpen. Herrera’s average fastball velocity has stabilized between 96.0mph and 98.0mph for his entire career. In 2015, his average changeup was an astounding 88.9mph. This serious heat has led to a career average 23.9 K%s, making Herrera seemingly unhittable at times. The main storyline regarding the Royals’ bullpen has been the downfall of Greg Holland and the rise of Wade Davis as the team’s closer. Behind the scenes, Herrera is lurking ready to do some damage. If Davis falters, Herrera more than likely has the capability to earn some saves but even if he stays put in the seventh and eighth innings, there is still some potential for Ks and wins.
For the most part, the Milwaukee Brewers represent a fantasy baseball dead zone in 2016. Aside from Ryan Braun, who claims to be feeling healthy after multiple surgical procedures, there is no one to really turn any heads. Even Khris Davis has been shipped off to the A’s. It really is difficult to get excited about most of the other players on the Brew Crew’s roster; except for Will Smith.
In 2016, K-Rod will be pitching in Detroit. The de facto closer in this situation is Smith and deservedly so. Last year, 64.7% of Smith’s pitches were strikes. This split aided him in holding batters to a .218 average and a polished .247 FIP.
Paul Kastava of Fangraphs attributes Smith’s improved performance over the course of his career on increased usage of his slider. Kastava noticed a similar trend in reliever Andrew Miller, giving you an idea of the potential that Will Smith has. The Brewers may not find themselves in many save situations but if they do, Will Smith is an RP you can count on.
What in the world were the Baltimore Orioles thinking when they traded Jake Arrieta to the Chicago Cubs? At the time in 2013, they probably thought they could pair then-erratic Arrieta and a ragtag reliever with a relatively uninspiring resume together to create a low value package for a rotation anchor and some catching depth. That ragtag reliver with the uninspiring resume? Pedro Strop.
Arrieta went on to win the National League Cy Young in the 2015, further compounding the O’s regret in trading him. However, Strop has slowly begun to add to that regret as well.
In the last four seasons, we can only sum up Strop’s performance by one word: improvement. Take a look at the drops in opposing batter average and WHIP from 2012-2015:
| Year | AVG | WHIP |
| 2012 | .215 | 1.34 |
| 2012 | .203 | 1.24 |
| 2014 | .186 | 1.07 |
| 2015 | .165 | 1.00 |
Now, look at Strop’s K% and Contact % in those same years:
| Year | K% | Contact% |
| 2012 | 20.5% | 77.0% |
| 2013 | 26.0% | 73.0% |
| 2014 | 29.1% | 67.1% |
| 2015 | 30.0% | 63.2% |
So what do we have here? Judging by the significant drops in WHIP, Strop has been able to make great strides with his command. Simultaneously, his Contact% and his K% have soared. This tells us that not only has Strop kept his pitches in the strike zone, but he has also thrown more meaningful pitches and missed a lot more bats.
Hector Rondon has shown that he can be shaky at times so if the Cubs start moving down the line looking for a new closer, Strop presents an intriguing option.
We are certain that the Cleveland Indians will open up their season with 27-year old Cody Allen as their closer. After all, we saw Allen account for 33 saves and a 1.82 FIP in 2015; the second-best year of his young career. But there was also the Cody Allen that allowed four earned runs in just one third of an inning against the Chicago White Sox on April 20th, 2015. Allen became more stable as the year pressed on, but the Indians have been working to build a formidable bullpen behind him.
In a group that presents a mix of young and old, the name Bryan Shaw sticks out. Shaw bounced back and forth between the seventh inning guy and the eight inning guy for most of 2015, compiling a 3-3 record in 64.0 IP. Batters had a .249 average against Shaw, and the hits that did come were quite balanced in terms of direction; 33.5% pulled, 35.6% to center field, and 30.9% to opposite field.
Shaw’s value really lies in the state of the Indians overall. If the club is playing well, we can expect him to get a normal workload. While he may not be a guy that draws a lot of headlines, Shaw is simply solid. He has shown the ability to be effective in save situations and if Cody Allen were to end up injured, Shaw would most likely be the top candidate for his replacement. If the Indians find themselves in a lot of close ball games, Shaw may have the ability to notch some wins with just some average play. In leagues that factor in Holds, Shaw becomes even more of an attractive RP option and potentially one of the highest-value non-closers.
While the New York Mets’ starting rotation is receiving much of the attention these days, the bullpen has sort of faded to the background. This is no surprise as aside from closer Jeurys Familia, there is not much to look at. A late-season trade brought in Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks, and his resume is pretty much uninspiring. Journeyman Antonio Bastardo is also in the mix. But the Mets really may have found something in Hansel Robles and his short Major League resume speaks for itself.
In 54.0 IP in 2015, Robles produced a 3.67 ERA with most of his work coming in the seventh inning and some in the eighth inning before Addison Reed arrived. Not great, but a closer look reveals a .188 average against Robles and a 1.02 WHIP. With Robles, there is the obvious “what-if” scenario i.e. if something happens to Jeurys Familia. But there is also the fact that Reed has not shown stability and that the Mets play in a ballpark where scoring is not a given, producing low-scoring games and hold opportunities. Robles may not have been on many fantasy radars thus far, but he is worth a look outside of the more mainstream options.
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