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The wait is finally over – pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training this week. Of course, here at RotoBaller we’ve been cranking out tons of preseason content for some time now. We might be a little obsessed with baseball ‘round these parts. But that’s okay, because so are you!
And what better way to celebrate the draft season than to profile potential breakouts and busts? Last week’s series focused on players who fell into those categories in 2015, and their respective outlooks for this season. This week and next, we’ll take a closer look at the guys who are most likely to delight or disappoint fantasy owners in 2016.
2016 NL Starting Pitcher Breakout Candidates
You’ve probably heard the chatter about Iglesias this offseason. The buzz surrounding him has only grown, to the point where he’s essentially a “sleeper” in only the loosest sense of the term. The thing about hype, though? Sometimes it’s merited, and Iglesias certainly seems legit.
The Reds only trotted him out for six starts in the minors before calling him up. While his traditional stats weren’t all that impressive (3-7, 4.15 ERA), he struck out over a batter per inning and posted a 3.71 K/BB. Home runs were a bit of a problem for him as a rookie. Somewhat surprisingly though, given his small home park dimensions, he actually struggled much more with the long ball on the road.
Iglesias landed just inside the top 50 RotoBaller staff rankings for starting pitchers, though early ADP lists show him being drafted closer to the 40th starter off the board. There is a lot to like here at either draft day price, and if he can get the home runs under control the 2016 upside is immense.
The sheer volume of precocious youngsters who made an impact last season make it easy for a guy like Hendricks to get lost in the shuffle. After all, he wasn't even the most exciting fresh face on his own team.
Hendricks broke into the bigs in 2014 and produced impressive surface stats, going 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his 13 starts. However, an anemic strikeout rate limited his utility in fantasy baseball leagues. Last season, though, his K% leaped by eight percentage points and his K/9 increased from 5.27 to 8.35. He gave up a few more homers, which contributed to the run-and-a-half rise in his ERA, but his walk rate remained excellent.
The Cubs will have plenty of star power this season, and most of those players will command a hefty price on draft day. Hendricks could be one of the few fantasy bargains to be found in Wrigleyville this year. RotoBaller staff rankings have him 60th among starting pitcher, which is fairly close to his ADP.
Never a highly-touted MLB prospect, Eickhoff was viewed as something of a throw-in for the blockbuster Cole Hamels trade. However if his performance down the stretch is any indication, the Phillies might have uncovered a diamond in the rough.
Fueled by a filthy slider, Eickhoff posted excellent ratios (2.65 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.65 K/9, 3.77 K/BB) in his first eight MLB starts. But it’s not all champagne wishes and caviar dreams for Eickhoff. His hard-hit rate was among the worst in baseball, and his flyball tendencies won’t play well in Citizens Bank Park.
Still, he is flying way under the radar right now during the preseason and in early fantasy baseball drafts. Eickhoff is locking in around the low 90s for RotoBaller's staff pitcher rankings, and he is going undrafted in the majority of standard fantasy baseball leagues.
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