It was well-known coming into the season that the Phillies would be among the worst teams in baseball. Indeed, they had their worst season in nearly half a century, narrowly avoiding 100 losses with a win on the season’s final day. A long-overdue start to the rebuilding process has the farm system looking strong, and whoever is hired to replace Ruben Amaro as general manager should have plenty of money and rope to remake the on-field product. For the first time in years, there are reasons for optimism in Philadelphia’s future.

One of the few bright spots at the major-league level came out of virtually nowhere to register a fantasy impact. Odubel Herrera was plucked from the Rangers organization in last year’s Rule 5 draft. Acquired as an international free agent in 2008, Herrera was overlooked in a Rangers system that boasted numerous middle infield talents like Jurickson Profar and Rougned Odor. Consequently, he didn’t garner much attention from prospect mavens despite displaying solid hit and speed tools, as well as the athleticism to play multiple positions. A lack of power or polish suggested he profiled as more of a utility player than an MLB regular.

So much for that. Despite having never played a game above Double-A, Herrera spent most of the season as the Phillies’ starting center fielder and posted an excellent .297/.344/.418 line with 16 stolen bases. That production combined with quality defense at a premium position put him at 3.9 fWAR, good for fourth among rookie batters in a banner year for debuts. Does this breakout pass the smell test?

Herrera’s .387 BABIP is the 29^th highest single-season mark among qualified hitters since 1970. That doesn’t inspire much confidence, but there are reasons to believe Herrera won’t experience too drastic of a regression in this area. He has the general skillset to maintain a high BABIP – speed, lots of grounders and line drives, and hits to all fields. That’s borne out by his minor league track record, with only one season below a .350 BABIP.

It’s also worth noting that Herrera will be just 24 next season, so he has some room for growth. An obvious area for improvement is his strikeout rate. After posting mid-teen marks in the minors, Herrera whiffed in 24 percent of his plate appearances as a rookie, striking out almost five times for every walk drawn. Given his overall profile, he’ll need to trim that down to succeed in the long-term. Putting a few more balls in play would certainly put a dent in any potential BABIP regression.

Herrera could also continue to develop in the pop department. He’d never hit more than five homers or posted a slugging percentage above .400 in the minors, but left the yard eight times and slugged .418 in his first crack at the MLB level. Lastly, Herrera showed a platoon split against southpaws like most left-handed hitters, striking out more often and going deep just once.

Losing his middle infield eligibility definitely hurts Herrera’s fantasy value going forward, and any player whose value is so dependent on batting average is a risky proposition. That said, his impressive debut should have him on your radar in deeper leagues.

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