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Three Undervalued Running Backs Based on ADP Data

The days of building your fantasy football team around two stud running backs drafted in the first two rounds are over. Most NFL teams rely on a committee of running backs, as opposed to the workhorse strategy of old, and there are only a handful of true bell cow backs left in the league. If you don't end up with a Top 6 pick this season, the chances of you getting reliable studs like Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles or Eddie Lacy are basically non-existent.

This new pass-happy NFL has made quality RB1s a rare commodity and has forced fantasy owners to dig deeper to find undervalued players. Add in the fact that running backs selected in the first round have a higher bust rate than any other position, and it becomes even more crucial that fantasy owners find productive backs in the mid to late rounds to fill out their rosters. Players like Justin Forsett and Mark Ingram were afterthoughts during the draft, but ended up changing fantasy fates in 2014.

Here is a list of three underrated running backs, currently ranked outside of the Top 20 at the position, who will help solidify the position for owners without the high draft or auction cost. To read about more 2015 fantasy football draft sleepers, be sure to check out our running list of ADP values that can return draft day profits and help you dominate your leagues.

 

2015 Running Back Draft Values & Potential Sleepers

1. NYJ RB Chris Ivory - ADP: 79, RB 29

Over the last two seasons, it could be argued that Chris Ivory was the most reliable offensive weapon for the New York Jets. Ivory averaged a very respectable 4.35 YPC over the last two years and topped 800 yards in both seasons.

Heading into 2015, the Jets have upgraded their receiving corps with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and Ivory appears to be leading a backfield that also features an injured Stevan Ridley, an underachieving Bilal Powell and an unclear role for Zac Stacy.

Ivory has proven to be a durable pass-catching threat out of the backfield and figures to get at least 200 carries this season. As the 29th running back coming off of the board in the seventh round or later, you could do a lot worse than Ivory. I expect him to finish as a Top 20 rusher this season.

 

2. NYG RB Rashad Jennings - ADP: 84, RB 31

On the surface, it might appear that Jennings is too old, too brittle and in a backfield that's too crowded to trust him. Jennings is 30, a supposed age of decline for running backs, has never played 16 games in a season and will have to compete with second year back Andre Williams and newly signed free agent Shane Vereen.

However, Williams was a disappointment during his rookie season, averaging 3.3 yards per carry and showing off his hands of stone with just 18 receptions on 37 targets. Vereen has never been more than a receiving back, with the 96 carries he got a year ago in New England being a career high. While Jennings certainly did not set the fantasy football world on fire last year, he averaged more yards per carry and was a bigger factor in the passing game than Williams. He is also a much more reliable down-to-down ball carrier than Vereen has proven to be.

In 2015, Vereen will likely be the lead receiving back in New York, but there's no reason to believe that Jennings won't get the bulk of the carries and flirt with 200 totes. Additionally, he proved to be a very capable receiver last year, actually gaining more yards per catch than Vereen. The big question with Jennings, as it is with all running backs, is health. If Jennings can stay healthy, there's no reason that he can't be a Top 25 back with Top 10 flashes from time to time. You can't ask for more than that from an eighth round selection.

 

TB RB Doug Martin - ADP: 88, RB 34

When the Muscle Hamster burst onto the scene during his rookie campaign with 1,926 total yards and 12 TDs, it seemed that he was on his way to being one of the best backs in the game. But the last two seasons have been unkind to Doug Martin and his fantasy owners, with him missing 16 games and averaging 3.6 yards per carry during that span. As a result, his fantasy stock has plummeted.

Entering the 2015 season, Martin is finally healthy and has been named the starting running back for the Buccaneers. All reports indicate that the fourth year runner looks fantastic as well. The presence of second-year back Charles Sims shouldn't scare anyone off either, after he averaged an underwhelming 2.8 yards per carry in 2014. Bobby Rainey has been decent in flashes, but has been mostly mediocre throughout his time in Tampa.

Martin is the only running back on the team who has proven he can be a Top 5 type producer. He is going late in the eighth round and presents almost no risk. Go for the homerun by drafting Martin. At worst, you drop him for a replacement - at best, you get a near return to rookie form and get a steal near the end of the draft.

 

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